Archive for March, 2009

Dealing with Bench Players

9 Comments
March 9th, 2009 by Mays
Categories: Strategy, Theory

As the fantasy draft season heats up, a common question I get is how to deal with bench spots when building dollar values in the Price Guide. My common answer to that query is, “I don’t know.”

By definition, a bench player is not contributing any stats to your team. That means, in theory at least, that a bench player is worth nothing.

In real life (real fantasy life, I guess) that isn’t the case. Players that you draft as starters will get hurt. Others will underperform. It is very likely that some of the guys that you draft for your bench will see a significant amount of time in your lineup, contributing stats toward your totals. Some bench players will have a non-zero dollar value, which is why owners will pay more than the minimum for them at the draft.

So how do we quantify the value of bench players? Here are a couple of tips for dealing with the issue:

Reserve some money
When you enter your league’s salary cap in the Price Guide, you might try lowering the amount to compensate for what owners spend on their bench. Suppose your league has a $260 cap that is also spent filling five bench spots. Maybe you only enter $250 into the Price Guide — allocating $2 per bench spot.

The average amount that teams spend on their bench players will vary depending on the league’s rules, so there’s no magic amount to allocate. Past drafts should give you a rough idea of how much you need to hold back, though.

Enter more starters
For a league with daily lineup changes, it’s common to keep a couple of extra SP on your bench, which you rotate in on days they are pitching.

If this is a widespread strategy in your league, then these players are essentially starters, and you can consider them as starters in the Price Guide. For a league that starts 4 SP with teams average 2 SP on their bench, you might just enter 6 SP into the Price Guide.

This also works for hitters, but teams aren’t able to rotate bench players in as consistently as they can for pitchers. If an average team in your league has three hitters on their bench, you might add one extra Utility starter to compensate for the combined contributions of those three bench players.

Inflate starter values
For leagues with large benches, you might notice that the deep draft pool makes teams spend a little more on starters. If this is the case for you, you might inflate the values of starters by a certain amount, say 10%. Just copy and paste the Price Guide results into a spreadsheet, and you should be able to tweak the prices until they make sense.

I really don’t like to advocate playing with the dollar values until they look the way you want them. When there are discrepancies between the projected values and what happens at auction, my preferred solution would be to identify the factors that cause the differences, so that the values are computed as accurately as possible. But the effect of bench players seems like a really difficult thing to quantify.

Does anyone else have any solutions for how to handle bench players?

ZiPS Added to Composite Projections

6 Comments
March 5th, 2009 by Mays
Categories: Site News

Just up: ZiPS are now included in the composite projections for the Price Guide, equally weighted with everything else.

Also, Manny is now updated in the Price Guide as a Dodger. And, based on a slew of corrections that Tim sent me, I’ve updated the teams for tons of lesser players who have signed with someone else this offseason.

Let me know if you notice anything unusual.

Comparing the Price Guide to SGPs

9 Comments
March 5th, 2009 by Mays
Categories: Other Sites, Theory

John left this comment on one of my recent posts about SGPs:

Mays, I’m sure you’ll see, if you haven’t already, that Tim at RotoAuthority has released his projections and dollar values based on the SGP method.

It seems like a good opportunity to test your methodology against SGPs. I for one, would be curious to see how they compare.

The dollar values John is referring to are here. And since he asked, let’s look at what happens when I run Tim’s projections through the Price Guide.

When I built fantasy dollar values with the Price Guide using the exact same league settings that Tim uses for SGP, I get pretty much what I expected: Very little difference.

By my count, for the 418 players Tim projects, the Price Guide’s values are within $2 on 290 of them. I count 354 players that are within $3 (85%). When the Price Guide builds values for the exact same fantasy league that SGPs were designed for, you should notice very little difference.

But where do the methodologies diverge? One of the biggest differences was Ubaldo Jimenez, projected for 4.49 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 10 W, 155 K, 182 IP. Tim’s SGPs put him at $1; the Price Guide says -$7. The SGPs really like his win and strikeout totals, enough that they will overlook some pretty nasty ratios. For the Price Guide, the negatives in ERA and WHIP outweigh any positives in the counting stats. SGPs love the counting stats, but the Price Guide hates the rate stats.

The only other player that they are that far apart on is Ben Sheets, whom the Price Guide has at $6, and RotoAuthority puts at -$2 — another $8 difference. Accounting for surgery that will cause Sheets to miss at least half of the year, Tim projects a line of 3.60 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 5 W, 60 K, 75 IP. This is the same situation as Jimenez, except in reverse! The Price Guide loves the good rate stats; SGPs hate the bad counting stats.

Basically, the Price Guide’s strategy is to not chase wins and strikeouts, because doing so costs you ERA and WHIP. It advocates drafting middle relievers like Hideki Okajima ($1 to RA’s -$3), Scot Shields ($2 to RA’s -$1), and Edwar Ramirez ($1 to RA’s -$2). It says that’s what people should do.

Standings Gain Points show you what people actually do. Namely, they will draft a starter with a 1.51 WHIP if it can get them a few extra K’s.

Keep in mind that all of this is talking about a league with the exact same settings as the SGP dollar values were built for. But what happens if you try to apply SGP values to an even slightly different league?

Unprojected Stats

5 Comments
March 4th, 2009 by Mays
Categories: Site News

Some of the most common stat requests I get for the Price Guide involve categories that aren’t typically included in projections — quality starts, holds, and errors.

Although I can’t do anything to update the projections, I wondered if adding something would be better than nothing. For those of you who are interested in these categories: Would it be helpful to include 2008 stats for these categories that aren’t projected?

How about a multi-year average? Maybe weighted 3-2-1 Marcel style?

Also: Courtesy of Dan Szymborski of Baseball Think Factory, ZiPS projections are now available in the Price Guide. Wow, look at Ryan Braun!

Another Look at the RotoTimes Player Rater

5 Comments
March 3rd, 2009 by Mays
Categories: Other Sites, Price Guide

You may remember that when I compared the Price Guide to some of the other player valuators, my impression was that RotoTimes’s Player Rater was the worst of the bunch. RotoTimes recently added some new features, like the ability to choose how much money to allocate for hitters and pitchers. I tried it out again to see if anything had changed or improved.

What I found is that the Player Rater still can’t compete with the Price Guide head-to-head. Using the same sorts of drafts as before, RotoTimes always finished below the Price Guide in the standings. It is hurt by its continued tendency to overrate fast OF — it ranks Ichiro as the 21st best hitter last year, ahead of guys like Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis. (The Price Guide has him as 41, for comparison.)

But the main problem I see with the RotoTimes Player Rater is that it has no clue as to what to use for the replacement level. That’s because you only tell it the number of hitters and pitchers that your league uses, instead of the number at each position. If you tell it 14 hitters, it will give you the same values if your league drafts 14 outfielders per team or if each team starts 14 shortstops. All it knows is that each team gets 14 hitters.

It doesn’t take a crazy 14-outfielder league to make it give weird results, though. When I get values for a 12-team fantasy league with 14 hitters per team, it shows 10 catchers with a postive dollar value. Ten catchers for twelve teams? That doesn’t even work for a one-catcher league, and it is terribly inaccurate for a two-catcher league.

Out of curiosity, I tried out a few more league settings and counted how many catchers the tool said to draft:

12 mixed: 10 catchers (.83 per team)
12 AL: 22 catchers (1.83 per team)
20 mixed: 27 catchers (1.35 per team)
20 NL: 56 catchers (2.8 per team)

So in some leagues, the Player Rater doesn’t even draft enough catchers to fill one per team. In other leagues, it decides that most teams need three catchers! I have no idea how they are coming up with their replacement levels, but I’m pretty sure it’s not right.

For the record, I still haven’t found any valuation system that can beat than the Price Guide.

Two Sets of Dollar Values

6 Comments
March 2nd, 2009 by Mays
Categories: Strategy

Ron Shandler suggests bringing two sets of dollar values to your fantasy draft — projected values (what you think players are worth) and market values (what your league thinks they are worth):

The variance between projected value and market value is where you will find the greatest strategic advantage. If a player’s market value is far greater than projected, you can immediately cross the player off your target list and employ tactics to inflate his purchase price. If projected is greater than market, these are opportunities for you to try to build some profit into your roster.

Sounds like good advice to me. However, market value can be a hard thing to predict. Average Draft Position is a good place to start, and from there you can throw in a little bias for the hometown team. Maybe you tack on a little bit for guys who are dominating spring training.

But by and large you can still expect to be wrong on a lot of market values. There are always players drafted at prices that catch me completely by surprise. I find owners running up the price on a sleeper that I thought would go for single digits. I throw out a name that I think people are going to jump on and get nothing but crickets.

So don’t expect the market values to be something you can strictly depend on while drafting. But, with a little common sense and a bit of flexibility, having two sets of prices can still prove helpful.