Archive for January, 2010

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Worth Reading This Week

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January 15th, 2010 by Mays
Categories: Worth Reading

Yesterday, I highlighted Eric Young as a candidate for 40 steals and around an $18 value. Fantasy Ball Junkie took note of CHONE’s high projection early this offseason and asked, Is Eric Young the #1 Sleeper Heading into 2010?

Troy at Roto Savants, however, posted his top 20 2B rankings with no sign of Young. I’m hoping he just didn’t have him qualifying at 2B.

The second name on my list of SB sleepers was Julio Borbon — and Grey at Razzball just posted his own piece hyping the new Rangers centerfielder: Julio Borbon, 2010 Fantasy Sleeper.

I also broke down some of 2010’s interesting names that qualify at multiple positions. Razzball took a slightly different approach at communicating some of that same information, detailing games played by position and whether that eligibility helped anyone.

Interesting SB Prospects

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January 14th, 2010 by Mays
Categories: Projections, Sleepers

One of the most exciting parts about baseball projections are the projections for the minor leaguers. Here we get a chance to see what just about every professional player could do if he were given a full season in the majors.

For the most part, translating the stats for minor league players shows that even the best prospects wouldn’t be impact players for fantasy. The one skill that translates well to the majors is speed, and so there are quite a few young players that look like they could steal 30-60 bases if given a chance in the majors.

Looking over the current values on the Price Guide, here are a few names that stand out as SB-threats:

Eric Young (2B, OF – COL)
CHONE thinks Eric Young Jr. could nab 39 bases in 2010, while CAIRO puts him down for 52! (ZiPS splits the difference with 45 SB.) He is coming off a 58 SB year in Triple-A, so those numbers are quite attainable.

His fantasy value is also aided by playing in Colorado and by being eligible at middle infield. Both projections have him as about an $18 player this year in standard leagues, in the ballpark of guys like Evan Longoria, Lance Berkman, and B.J. Upton. I’m trying to temper my expectations, but that would be incredible.

Best of all, it looks like he’s going to be given the chance to start 2010 with the big-league club as a utility player (2B, 3B, and OF). That was a role that worked well last year for Ian Stewart (who, as projected, quietly put up a solid fantasy season in 2009).

Stewart also played a valuable role as the Player Most Likely to be on My Fantasy Teams, and I’m guessing that Eric Young will play that part this year. For lots of steals without killing the other categories and great positional eligibility I’m ready to go into double-digits for Young. I doubt anyone will be pushing me up to $20, but the projections think he will be worth it even so.

Julio Borbon (OF – TEX)
Julio Borbon is another speedy player that the projections love. He’s pegged for 34 (CHONE), 35 (CAIRO), or 41 (ZiPS) SB. He’s not yet expected to be the hitter that Young is, so his projected fantasy value is around the upper single-digits.

The big impact for Borbon is the Cubs signing Marlon Byrd to a 3/$15 deal this offseason, which frees up a spot in the Texas OF for Borbon. The current plan is for him to be the starting CF and leadoff hitter for the Rangers, and that could be very good for his fantasy value.

Michael Brantley (OF – CLE)
Michael Brantley’s name may be familiar as one of the prospects Milwaukee gave up for their late-season rental of CC Sabathia back in 2008. There’s a possibility that he is the starting LF for the Indians in 2010, and that would give him a chance at 30+ SB. The rest of his game is not quite fantasy-worthy, but he could be a valuable guy on the bench and as a keeper after this year.

Eric Patterson (2B, OF – OAK)
Patterson could be a 10-30 player in 2010 — basically Shane Victorino with less batting average. It’s not clear yet if the A’s have a place for him (and his questionable defense) on the diamond. Depending on how things are looking this spring, he could be worth a late flier.

Other possibilities for 30+ stolen bases don’t look like they offer enough with the bat to get a starting gig with a major-league team. Some names for those who are panning for gold include:

Eugenio Velez (2B, OF – SF)
Freddy Guzman (OF – NYY)
Jason Bourgeois (OF – HOU)
Tony Campana (OF – CHC)
Josh Anderson (OF – CIN)
Eric Farris (2B – MIL)

2010 Positional Eligibility Details

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January 13th, 2010 by Mays
Categories: Position Eligibility

Yesterday, I mentioned a few of the players who might have multi-position eligibility in your league in 2010. Today’s post is a detailed look on that same topic.

To chart below is broken down into players who played 20+, 10+, 5+, and 1+ games at a certain position. In each grouping, I didn’t repeat players from the more-strict sets above, unless a player gains a position in each group. So, if your league only requires 10 or more games at a position to qualify there, you will need to look at both the first and second sections to see all of the players who qualify at a second position.

If you league has some other requirement besides these multiples, you can probably use the Price Guide to get a list tailored to your league.

Significant Players, 20+ games:

Victor Martinez C, 1B
Mark Reynolds 3B, 1B
Kevin Youkilis 3B, 1B
Ben Zobrist 2B, OF
Pablo Sandoval 3B, 1B
Michael Cuddyer OF, 1B
Adam Dunn OF, 1B
Asdrubal Cabrera SS, 2B
Jorge Cantu 3B, 1B
Nick Swisher OF, 1B
Adam Kennedy 2B, 3B
Maicer Izturis SS, 2B
Mark DeRosa 3B, OF
Ian Stewart 2B, 3B
Casey McGehee 2B, 3B
Martin Prado 2B, 3B, 1B
Garrett Jones OF, 1B
Skip Schumaker 2B, OF
Chase Headley 3B, OF
Mark Teahen 3B, OF
Juan Uribe SS, 2B, 3B
Ramon Hernandez C, 1B
Daniel Murphy OF, 1B
Jhonny Peralta SS, 3B
Willie Bloomquist SS, OF
Emilio Bonifacio SS, 3B
Craig Counsell SS, 2B, 3B
Jerry Hairston Jr. SS, 3B, OF
Fernando Tatis 3B, OF, 1B

Significant Players, 10+ games:

Ben Zobrist SS, 2B, OF
Jose Lopez 2B, 1B
Alberto Callaspo 2B, 3B
Mark DeRosa 3B, OF, 1B
Clint Barmes SS, 2B
Luke Scott OF, 1B
Mark Teahen 3B, OF, 1B
Ryan Raburn OF, 1B
Brendan Ryan SS, 2B
Chris Davis 3B, 1B
Willie Bloomquist SS, 2B, OF
Jerry Hairston Jr. SS, 2B, 3B, OF
Ryan Garko OF, 1B

Significant Players, 5+ games:

Yadier Molina C, 1B
Maicer Izturis SS, 2B, 3B
Ian Stewart 2B, 3B, OF
Landon Powell C, 1B
Ryan Raburn 3B, OF, 1B
Emilio Bonifacio SS, 2B, 3B, OF
Fernando Tatis 2B, 3B, OF, 1B

Significant Players, 1+ games:

Kevin Youkilis 3B, OF, 1B
Ben Zobrist SS, 2B, 3B, OF, 1B
Chone Figgins 2B, 3B, OF
Pablo Sandoval C, 3B, 1B
Jorge Posada C, 1B
Michael Cuddyer 2B, OF, 1B
Carlos Lee OF, 1B
Marco Scutaro SS, 2B
Russell Martin C, 3B
Casey Blake 3B, OF, 1B
Chris Coghlan 2B, OF
Alberto Callaspo SS, 2B, 3B
Adam Kennedy 2B, 3B, OF, 1B
Maicer Izturis SS, 2B, 3B, OF
Mark DeRosa 2B, 3B, OF, 1B
Josh Willingham OF, 1B
Casey McGehee 2B, 3B, OF, 1B
Ryan Doumit C, OF
Martin Prado 2B, 3B, OF, 1B
Pedro Feliz SS, 3B
Chase Headley 3B, OF, 1B
Mark Teahen 2B, 3B, OF, 1B
Hank Blalock 3B, 1B
Gerald Laird C, 1B
Alfonso Soriano 2B, 3B, OF
Ramon Hernandez C, 3B, 1B
Nick Hundley C, OF
Willie Bloomquist SS, 2B, 3B, OF, 1B
Koyie Hill C, 3B
Henry Blanco C, 3B
Chris Snyder C, 1B
Fernando Tatis SS, 2B, 3B, OF, 1B

The 2010 Positional Eligibility Guide

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January 12th, 2010 by Mays
Categories: Position Eligibility

There is a feature of the Price Guide that you may not have noticed, but that is one of the unique and valuable things about it: It customizes the values based on the positional eligibility requirements of your specific league.

In the past I’ve gotten burned by trusting the eligibility listed on websites and magazines, drafting a player to be my SS and later realizing he only qualifies at 2B in my league. Worst is if I have already drafted a better 2B, and my newly acquired “starting SS” actually becomes my new backup 2B.

The Price Guide keeps that from happening, and it even adjusts a player’s value based on his most valuable position. That can make a big difference in what a player is worth, especially if he qualifies at catcher or middle infield in your league.

Most of this year’s multi-position players are not surprising: Victor Martinez (C, 1B), Kevin Youkilis (3B, 1B), Adam Dunn (OF, 1B), and Jorge Cantu (3B, 1B) should maintain the same positional eligibility as last year.

There are also some notable changes:

Lost eligibility

Pablo Sandoval was eligible at catcher last year but will not this year in all but the most lax leagues (3 games). He is still a valuable player, and is still eligible at multiple positions (3B and 1B).

Miguel Cabrera is now an exclusive 1B; he did not start a single game at 3B.

Alexei Ramirez only started at SS in 2009, losing 2B and OF qualifications.

Marco Scutaro put up a surprise season in 2009, made even better in fantasy leagues that let you play him at SS, 2B, or 3B. This year he will be a SS in most leagues (although he played 2 games at 2B).

New eligibility

Mark Reynolds continued to play primarily 3B for the D-backs, but he also managed 28 games at 1B.

There are a couple other players who haven’t picked up new positions but have gained fantasy value: Ben Zobrist (91 G at 2B, 70 at OF, 13 at SS) surged to relevance in 2009 as a $21 player in standard leagues. (He also played a couple of games at 1B and 3B.) Ian Stewart was a BA-killer but was still above replacement overall — he should qualify at 3B (121 G), 2B (21 G), and maybe OF (9 G).

Who knew?

There are some leagues that will allow a player to be put at any position he played any time at in the past year, which can produce some wacky results. (In 2008, Pujols’s game at 2B surely gave his value a little bump.)

As mentioned above, Pablo Sandoval only played 3 games behind the plate, but that could be enough to count him as a catcher. National League Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan is probably worth a few extra bucks if you can count his 1 game at 2B.

Chone Figgins had 2 games at 2B and 1 in LF, in addition to his primary position of 3B. Alfonso Soriano made his triumphant return to 2B in 2 games and had another game at 3B. Yes, Soriano could be eligible at OF, 3B, and 2B.

Remember that every league is different, and these general statements may not be true of your league. Make sure you verify your own league’s eligibility by entering the specifics into the Price Guide.

The Two Rules for Fantasy Baseball Drafting

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January 11th, 2010 by Mays
Categories: Strategy

The focus of this blog is primarily on fantasy baseball drafts and auctions. While much of the discussion is on nuances and details of drafting, I think I can condense my draft strategy into two simple rules:

Rule #1: Trust your projections, not your intuition.

Too often, our expectations are too high for a player coming off of an unexpectedly good year. Our expectations may be too low for a player after a poor or injury-plagued year. We may underrate old players with good time left and overrate exciting young prospects.

In all of these cases we are trying to mentally adjust a player’s value, and these adjustments are made objectively and consistently by good projections. Players will be regressed to the mean to compensate for fluctuations in past years. Their stats are adjusted up or down based on an expected aging curve.

Furthermore, we can be biased for or against certain players or teams with no logical underpinning for liking or disliking them. For example, I think Kevin Youkilis looks like a hobo. I think he looks like he’s about to wet his pants every time he comes to bat, and I don’t want him on my team. However, none of those opinions should change his value at the draft.

The bottom line is that projections adjust for the right things — fluke seasons, aging, park effects, etc. Trying to estimate those changes in your head will not be as effective.

Projections also make no adjustment for things that do not matter — your own personal likes or dislikes.

Rule #2: Trust your intuition, not your projections.

My second rule for drafting is simply the reverse of the first rule.

This rule observes that, while projections are good, they are far from perfect. It is naive to believe that a player projected at $25 is worth exactly that and not a penny more or less. All that projection is really indicating is that $25 is the most likely value from a wide range of possibilities. There’s a good chance he’ll be worth about $20-30, but he could also be worth $50 or nothing at all. It doesn’t make sense to be so wedded to projections that are inaccurate so often.

Furthermore, a pre-draft dollar value does not make any change for in-draft dynamics. If pitchers are going for less (or going later) then you will want to drop pitcher values and reallocate that money elsewhere. If you get a starting shortstop for $30, then the value of remaining SS drops, at least for you.

Basically, a $25 projection should not stop you from bidding one dollar more or five dollars more, and it shouldn’t force you to go above $19. That decision is going to be dependent on the circumstances at the time.

While a good set of dollar values is valuable, it shouldn’t be the final word on a draft decision.

So those are my two rules for drafting. Does anyone have any other guiding principles at the draft?

More 2010 Projections (CAIRO)

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January 6th, 2010 by Mays
Categories: Price Guide, Site News

There’s another projection already here: The CAIRO projections courtesy of SG from the Replacement Level Yankee’s Weblog. I am admittedly no lover of the Yankees, but I certainly cannot complain about the quality of these projections. In this case, I’ll even refrain from making any snide remarks about the fact that CAIRO puts a conspicuously high $6 value on Yankee’s catcher prospect Jesus Montero. (CHONE, for comparison, has him at -$3.)

Of course, RLYW is a valuable site even for us non-Yankee fans. For example, each year SG shows that his projections are much more than a fantasy tool by simulating the season in advance. (See 2009’s blowout.) Taking the CAIRO, CHONE, Marcel, ZiPS, THT, and PECOTA projections, he simulates the upcoming season 1000 times with each to generate predicted standings for each division.

Anyway, two projections is enough for me to call it a quorum and to fire up the composite projections — currently just an 50/50 mix of CHONE and CAIRO. Still no saves, but it’s only January.

The First Projections of 2010: CHONE

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January 5th, 2010 by Mays
Categories: Price Guide, Site News

The first projections for 2010 are here!

Sean Smith of BaseballProjection.com has graciously allowed me to include his 2010 CHONE projections on the Price Guide.

CHONE is a computerized projection system that has year-after-year produced some of the most accurate predictions.  In addition to CHONE, Sean is also recognized for the development of his historical Wins Above Replacement (WAR) data, statistical measurements for comparing players (1871-2009) across positions and eras.  It’s not fantasy-related, but it is very impressive and a testament to some of the hard work Sean has done in baseball research.

As usual with projection systems, there are no saves projected in CHONE, but we’ll be discussing save candidates a bit later.  (Of course, since the Price Guide lets you customize the projections to your own liking, it’s pretty easy to add your own save predictions.)

Please let me know if you notice any problems.  Thanks again to Sean for making this happen.

Welcome Back!

12 Comments
January 4th, 2010 by Mays
Categories: Site News

It’s a new year, and that means a new fantasy baseball season is on the way!

Here at Last Player Picked, the wheels are beginning to turn again after a quiet and restful offseason.  That means that the Price Guide will start being updated with 2010 projections very soon.

The regular schedule of posts will return next Monday and continue on through the start of the baseball season.

I’m looking forward to having some excellent discussions on draft strategy and player valuation.

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