SubscribeLast year, I did a series of articles looking at pitchers who met the qualifications for the LIMA Plan. For those who may be unfamiliar with the strategy, LIMA stands for Low Investment Mound Aces, and it’s a strategy to get SP with good skills on the cheap so that you can spend more on hitters. You target cheap players who have a K/BB over 2.00, a K/9 above 6.00, and a HR/9 below 1.00.
After throwing out the obviously good pitchers (Lincecum, Halladay, Sabathia, Santana, etc.) who wouldn’t come cheap, I found 17 LIMA pitchers for 2009, and I broke them down into categories based on the 2009 projections. Here they are again, with their 2008 actual values, 2009 projected values, and 2009 actual values:
Already Good, Could Be Great
| Player | 08 Act. | 09 Proj | 09 Act |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Beckett | $10 | $22 | $18 |
| Matt Cain | $2 | $18 | $21 |
| A.J. Burnett | $9 | $19 | $6 |
| Joba Chamberlain | $8 | $17 | -$5 |
| Felix Hernandez | $4 | $16 | $32 |
True LIMA Pitchers Projected to Improve
| Player | 08 Act. | 09 Proj | 09 Act |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Sanchez | -$6 | $3 | $4 |
| Kevin Millwood | -$14 | -$4 | $7 |
| Andy Pettitte | -$2 | $3 | $5 |
LIMA Pitchers with No Projected Improvement
| Player | 08 Act. | 09 Proj | 09 Act |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | $10 | $9 | $28 |
| Matt Garza | $7 | $8 | $9 |
| Gil Meche | $6 | $5 | -$8 |
| Paul Maholm | $4 | $1 | -$4 |
| Randy Wolf | $0 | -$2 | $20 |
| Wandy Rodriguez | $6 | $2 | $19 |
| Jorge De La Rosa | -$4 | -$7 | $8 |
LIMA Pitchers Projected to do Worse
| Player | 08 Act. | 09 Proj | 09 Act |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Lester | $13 | $2 | $20 |
| John Danks | $13 | $1 | $10 |
With hindsight, we might split them up like this, instead:
Better than Expected
| Player | 09 Proj | 09 Act |
|---|---|---|
| Randy Wolf | -$2 | $20 |
| Adam Wainwright | $9 | $28 |
| Jon Lester | $2 | $20 |
| Wandy Rodriguez | $2 | $19 |
| Felix Hernandez | $16 | $32 |
| Jorge De La Rosa | -$7 | $8 |
| Kevin Millwood | -$4 | $7 |
| John Danks | $1 | $10 |
Met Expectations
| Player | 09 Proj | 09 Act |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Cain | $18 | $21 |
| Andy Pettitte | $3 | $5 |
| Matt Garza | $8 | $9 |
| Jonathan Sanchez | $3 | $4 |
| Josh Beckett | $22 | $18 |
Worse than Expected
| Player | 09 Proj | 09 Act |
|---|---|---|
| Paul Maholm | $1 | -$4 |
| Gil Meche | $5 | -$8 |
| A.J. Burnett | $19 | $6 |
| Joba Chamberlain | $17 | -$5 |
On the whole, that seems like a very good performance. Almost half of the pitchers did significantly better than projected. Another five met their projections, which was still an improvement over what they had done in 2008. Only 5 out of 17 players did worse than projected, and really only 3 (Meche, Burnett, and Chamberlain) would count as disappointments.
Those results are both surprising and pleasing. I really expected the projections to recognize that pitchers with solid peripherals would improve, but they still undersold most of these guys. And it’s exciting to think of what can be applied for fantasy drafts in 2010.
Tommorrow: What lessons can we learn from 2009?
