SubscribeRoughly one-fifth of the season is in the books. Since the Price Guide has daily updates on year-to-date stats, let’s look at who the biggest fantasy overperformers and underperformers are so far this year, relative to the composite projections in March.
We’ll start with the players who have been the biggest fantasy disappointments so far in 2010:
| Name | Proj. | Act. | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Vazquez | $28 | -$30 | -$58 |
| Josh Beckett | $20 | -$32 | -$52 |
| Ben Sheets | $9 | -$30 | -$39 |
| Jake Peavy | $17 | -$21 | -$38 |
| Felix Hernandez | $28 | -$7 | -$35 |
| Edwin Jackson | $2 | -$33 | -$35 |
| Clayton Kershaw | $18 | -$12 | -$30 |
| Chad Billingsley | $18 | -$12 | -$30 |
| Gavin Floyd | $3 | -$27 | -$30 |
| Jair Jurrjens | $16 | -$14 | -$30 |
| Johan Santana | $28 | -$1 | -$29 |
| Wandy Rodriguez | $14 | -$15 | -$29 |
| Aaron Harang | $9 | -$19 | -$28 |
| Ian Kinsler | $18 | -$9 | -$27 |
I’m noticing a trend here…Lots of SP and an injured Ian Kinsler at the end. I don’t think this is cause for alarm for all of these guys just yet, though: Last year, this list was headlined by CC Sabathia, who ended up as one of the top fantasy pitchers. (Beckett also appeared in about the same spot.)
How about overperformers?
| Name | Proj. | Act. | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Gonzalez | -$14 | $24 | $37 |
| Livan Hernandez | -$17 | $18 | $36 |
| Barry Zito | -$7 | $27 | $34 |
| Ike Davis | -$31 | $2 | $32 |
| Ty Wigginton | -$11 | $21 | $32 |
| Jose Guillen | -$12 | $19 | $31 |
| Doug Fister | -$11 | $19 | $31 |
| Andruw Jones | -$10 | $20 | $30 |
| Fred Lewis | -$27 | $2 | $30 |
| Austin Kearns | -$25 | $5 | $30 |
| Austin Jackson | -$7 | $21 | $28 |
| Reid Brignac | -$25 | $2 | $27 |
| Sergio Santos | -$22 | $4 | $27 |
| David Price | -$5 | $22 | $27 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | $7 | $33 | $26 |
| Brett Cecil | -$13 | $13 | $26 |
As with the previous list, there are quite a few SP. Which tells you what you already knew — there’s a lot of variability with pitchers.
Ubaldo has been fantastic, but it was pretty clear before the season that the projections were too low on him. (They all penalized him heavily for playing in Colorado, but his groundball tendencies make the thin air a lesser factor.)
I have the most faith in the prospects on the list — Ike Davis, Austin Jackson, and David Price, especially — to maintain their strong start. It’s not unusual for a young player to improve, and the projections had much less data about these players. I’m much less optimistic about Alex Gonzalez and Livan Hernandez.
At this point in the season, I’m still putting more faith in the preseason projections than on 1+ months of stats. Keep watching the Price Guide, though. Things will start to even out as the 2010 fantasy stats accumulate.