Last Player Picked

There’s no doubt about it, 2009 was an awful year for Kelly Johnson. After two solid seasons for the Braves, his .224 batting average last year cost him his starting gig and caused Atlanta to non-tender him after the season. He latched on in Arizona as the replacement for free agent 2B Felipe Lopez. It seems that many fantasy baseball owners had given up on him, as well. Coming into 2010, Yahoo, for example, didn’t have Johnson ranked in the top 25 fantasy second basemen. The Price Guide, by contrast, had him at a very draftable $7 price.

Kelly wasn’t quite the sleeper that Colby Lewis was, however. Analysts who were aware of good projection systems didn’t ignore him: Grey at Razzball had a very reasonable analysis (although he hedges by leaving Johnson out of the top 20 2B). Tim Dierkes, likewise, had him as an undervalued hitter, worth $6 despite being drafted in the 26th round. And, of course, I included him on my All-Bargain Team back in March.

So I wasn’t the only voice shouting in the wilderness, but Kelly Johnson was still a cheap pick coming into the season. That would change quickly, though: Johnson’s torrid April no doubt resulted in a lot of waiver wire adds in leagues where he wasn’t drafted. He knocked 9 homers while batting .313, even hitting for the cycle for good measure. He’s cooled off since then, but his season line will probably end up as a pretty normal Johnson-esque season: Double-digit HR and SB with a average around .270-.280. That’s a good, middle-tier 2B after Cano and Utley.

I see one big lesson here:

Don’t write a player off after one bad year.

Johnson had a history of being a good ballplayer. He was young — 28 coming into the season — so there was no reason to expect his poor 2009 was age-related decline. While you certainly take 2009 into account, you can’t discard the sustained success he had in the two years before.

Example #2 for this lesson is Geovany Soto: How did fantasy owners forget about a good 2008 after a poor 2009? Like Johnson, he’s under 30 and presumably still in his prime. The smart choice is to consider a player’s full history — giving the most weight to the most recent season, yes, but not neglecting to consider earlier successes.

Colby Lewis was probably my favorite sleeper coming into 2010. His signing with the Rangers from the Japanese NPB league was completely unnoticed by fantasy magazines. Yahoo had him ranked as the 339th best player for 2010 — irrelevant for mixed leagues. I’ve searched back through articles and posts from this winter, and I didn’t find much hype from Internet writers, either. (Consider the lack of optimism from this Fantasy Roundtable in early April, although even that was too late for drafting.)

Yet in January 2010, I wrote a post entitled “Johan Santana, Josh Beckett and…Colby Lewis” highlighting a projection that put Colby Lewis in the ballpark of those two perennial stars. Lewis was the most surprising name to me when I ran the initial CHONE projections through the Price Guide. CHONE predicted a 3.96 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 8.0 K/9 (although Sean later adjusted it more conservatively to account for Lewis’s poor MLB seasons from several years ago).

Although my post was not as strong a recommendation as that title makes it sound, I did conclude with this line:

Even using the more pessimistic ZiPS, I feel pretty good about paying at least $5-6 for Colby Lewis. At that price, it’s not a big deal to cut him if he doesn’t work out. If it turns out CHONE is right, then that’s a cheap bet that could pay huge dividends.

Basically, Colby Lewis is the kind of risk you take that helps win your league. He offered little downside as a late round, $1 pick, and he had plenty of upside. That $1 pick has (to date) netted about $12 of value in a standard league in 2010, and great keeper value for 2011 and beyond.

What are the lessons here?

Pay attention to NPB stars coming to MLB.
Sure, everyone notices guys like Daisuke Matsuzaka and their huge posting fees. Watch for guys (like Hiroki Kuroda recently) who might not project as stars but who do look like fantasy contributors, especially since these guys will come so much cheaper at the draft than the Matsuzakas will. Note: As in the case of Lewis, the guys without Japanese-sounding names may even get less attention.

Don’t be afraid to use your final picks on high-upside players
At the end of the draft, you are basically just rounding out your roster or filling your bench. You can target reliable veterans — maybe this year it would be guys like Vicente Padilla or Tim Wakefield — who have clear flaws but don’t project to be horrendous. Or, you can take a gamble on a player who might be terrible, but who also has a good chance of turning a profit.

At 2010 drafts, guys like Colby Lewis were the exact kind of sleeper to target if you wanted endgame players who could push you towards a winning season.