Archive for January, 2011

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Drafting a Shortstop in 2011

5 Comments
January 27th, 2011 by
Categories: Strategy

It seems that everyone has acknowledged that, as in 2010, shortstop is going to be a difficult position to fill in 2011. I see a couple basic strategies to deal with this year’s dearth:

Overpay for Hanley or Tulowitzki
Here’s the thing: You are going to have to overpay if you want a good shortstop this year. That is just a fact of life. Out of the top 12 fantasy shortstops ranked by the Price Guide, 11 are ranked higher by MockDraftCentral’s ADP. (I’ll deal with the lone exception, next.) That means that fantasy drafters are not wanting to take their chances with a low-end SS, and they’ll pay to make sure it doesn’t happen.

What is interesting is that the SS premium seems consistent. That is, you’ll probably have to overpay by about the same amount (maybe $5-$8) to get Hanley or to get Jeter. If I’m going to have to pay extra no matter what, I’m going to do it for one of the first round guys — Hanley Ramirez or Troy Tulowitzki.

Draft Alexei Ramirez
I mentioned there is only one player that the Price Guide ranks higher than their ADP, and that player is Alexei Ramirez In a mixed league, Ramirez is projected to be almost perfectly average in every single category — .275 AVG, 80 RBI, 80 R, 20 HR, and 10 SB. That’s pretty much what he’s done in each of his three years in the U.S., so it seems like a very reasonable line.

For whatever reason, though, fantasy players are anti-Alexei this year. (Maybe because he’s so…average.) And that means he might be the only SS you can get at (or below) his projected price. He doesn’t look like the kind of guy who will carry your team, but he seems like a safe pick to earn his keep while contributing in all five categories.

Take a Gamble with Escobar, Hardy, Peralta, or Bartlett
So let’s say you not only miss out on a top-tier SS, but you’re also drafting with a White Sox fan who won’t let you get Alexei on the cheap. Now what?

The end game of a draft is always a great time to fill holes, since everyone’s player values have diverged quite a bit by that point, and many teams are no longer competing against you for players. Four guys the Price Guide likes more than ADP are Yunel Escobar, J.J. Hardy, Jhonny Peralta, and Jason Bartlett. The common theme I see there are guys who have shown skill in the past, but have lost a bit of their luster lately. In 2009, Bartlett finished as a $19 player and Escobar at $12. The year before, Peralta was at $18 and Hardy at $12.

Now, I don’t expect all of those guys to bounce back in 2011, but I think at least one will. I’m most worried about Bartlett, since he’s got to deal with hitting in Petco. Peralta’s success in 2008 came batting cleanup for the Indians, which is unlikely to happen in Detroit. The only thing hindering Hardy is his health, which is something I’m usually willing to risk. I’m also willing to overlook a down year for Escobar, since he had two solid years preceding it.

So if I can get Escobar and Hardy for a couple of bucks apiece, I figure I have a good shot of at least one SS worth starting.

One Last Thing
One final thing to keep in mind in an auction: I mentioned that it looks like people will be overpaying for mid-tier SS. This gives a great opportunity to bleed out some cash from other owners on guys you have no chance of drafting. The best name I see for that is Jimmy Rollins. People see him as a power-speed guy who can put up 20 HR and 30 SB, but that’s a lot less valuable if he’s batting .250 (which he has the past two years). He’s old. He’s been injured. Bring him up at the auction and let the rest bid what they wish.

Elvis Andrus has the same batting average problem as Rollins, and has no power either. He’s valuable for the R and SB contributions he’ll make, but probably not as valuable as your league thinks. He’s young, so I’m hesitant to write him off, but you won’t be drafting him if you use the Price Guide. Nominate Andrus and get some cash out of the other owners’ pockets.

CBS Fantasy Baseball Mock Drafts and Draft Kits

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January 26th, 2011 by
Categories: Other Sites

Just noticed that CBS has fired up their fantasy baseball leagues for 2011… That means they also have their mock drafts and auctions up.

I don’t remember seeing this last year, but they have also created Fantasy Baseball Draft Kits — 100 page PDFs of cheatsheets, position eligibility lists, and fantasy player summaries. (They also claim “Draft-Day Strategies,” but I didn’t see any of those.) It looks like standard fantasy magazine fare, but non-splashy (and free).

Paying for Saves

6 Comments
January 26th, 2011 by
Categories: Other Sites, Strategy

I enjoyed reading a post by Dave Chenok today on The Hardball Times about why a save is not a save:

The experts are missing something pretty fundamental: a save is not a save.

Why not? The key concept here is so simple that it amazes me it gets consistently ignored: Closers contribute to scoring categories besides saves. ERA. WHIP. Ks. Joe Borowski may well get as many saves as Mo one year, but Joe is probably going to hurt you, relative to Mo, in all the other scoring categories. “Oh,” I hear the experts saying, “but that is silly. Closers don’t pitch enough innings to impact those categories meaningfully. Solid starters will more than make up for any ERA or WHIP effect you get from having Joe versus Mo.”

The problem is: It isn’t true. It’s like saying that eating a chocolate bar each day won’t affect your weight, because you eat a lot of other food, and it’s only one little chocolate bar. Right.

He’s absolutely right to notice that RP contribute in more fantasy categories than just S. It’s why the Price Guide ranks Joakim Soria ($13) so much higher than Francisco Cordero ($6). Despite projected save totals in the upper 30s for both of them, Soria just contributes more to ERA, WHIP, and K.

However, I think Dave skips over this criticism too lightly:

“But wait,” I can hear the experts croaking. “If you used early round picks for closers, you can’t possibly have had enough hitting—you must have sacrificed points there.” Well it’s hard to model what I didn’t do, but… assuming you use the first four rounds of your draft on strong hitters at weaker positions, there are generally enough corner infielders and outfielders left in rounds 8-12 to build a very solid overall hitting lineup. You can have your cake and eat it too.

This, I think, is a valid criticism. If I spend $13 on Soria and $6 on Raul Ibanez, the Price Guide thinks I’ll end up with essentially the same quality team as if I spend $6 on Cordero and $12 on Delmon Young. The extra hitting vs. the extra pitching should be a wash.

I think Dave’s strategy only works (i.e. gives an advantage rather than being value neutral) if teams don’t understand the idea of positional replacement levels, allowing you to fill MI early and OF/CI late. Otherwise, you are just reallocating hitting value to pitching value, and overall your team doesn’t change.

When you eat your cake, it’s gone.

Planning Picks after the First Round

3 Comments
January 24th, 2011 by
Categories: Fantasy Basics, Strategy

In serpentine drafts, it is always important to be thinking ahead about future picks whenever you are making a selection. You don’t want to end up passing over the best available name just because you’ve already filled his position. With that in mind, I’ve got a couple of basic draft strategies prepared, depending on what happens with my first round pick:

Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, or Adrian Gonzalez
Taking a slugging 1B in the first round will cost you an easy-to-fill position, but it is still worth it for the stats and consistency. The second pick should be easy: All of the other top-tier 1B will be gone by the second round, and you can fill any position. I wouldn’t mind a top pitcher (e.g. Felix Hernandez or Roy Halladay, if he’s available) so that I start off with studs at hitting and pitching. This team will need speed eventually, though, but that might have to come from late-round sources like Nyjer Morgan and Coco Crisp.

Hanley Ramirez or Troy Tulowitzki
Congratulations, you’ve solved one of the biggest fantasy problems this year: drafting a shortstop. As with the 1B above, I’d still be willing to draft a SP with my 2nd rounder, or grab a guy like Matt Holliday if he’s still available. With a key skill position filled first, you can bulk up your offense with a corner slugger (Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds, Carlos Pena) later in the draft.

Ryan Braun, Carl Crawford, or Carlos Gonzalez
These all seem to be great options in the middle of the first round, even though ADP has them a little lower than the Price Guide. The Price Guide values them in the first half of the round; ADP tends to put them near the end. That means I’d love to have the 10th-12th pick, where I can hopefully grab whichever of the three is still available.

Your second rounder could be Alex Rodriguez, Ryan Howard, or Mark Teixeira, which would put your offense on a good pace for the draft. You’ll need to fill in pitching on the cheap, and I would target sneaky-good pitchers like Roy Oswalt, Ted Lilly, and Shaun Marcum later in the draft.

Joe Mauer
Getting a catcher in round 1 works in two-catcher leagues, but definitely don’t do it if there’s only 1 catcher per team. (I’d grab a sleeper catcher like Chris Iannetta or J.P. Arencibia late, in that scenario.) You’ve filled a tough position early, but Mauer’s raw stats are a step below the other first rounders. Target the best available player over the next couple of rounds — whatever 1B or OF slip through the cracks of your league.

What about taking 3B Evan Longoria or David Wright in the first round? Or 2B Robinson Cano? They all have a first round ADP, but the Price Guide thinks they are closer to second rounders. I’m going for someone with more consistency with my 1st pick, which means I’ll be filling 2B and 3B in the middle rounds, instead.

The key to planning picks is knowing each player’s value and their ADP. Even if Mauer is worth a first round pick, I’d much rather have Victor Martinez in the third round and use my first rounder on another position. Martinez is valued by the Price Guide just $4 below Mauer, so I think it’s worth taking a chance and waiting.

Core Four Drafting

3 Comments
January 21st, 2011 by
Categories: Other Sites, Strategy

Here’s a post I found from a couple of days ago — USA Today‘s Steve Gardner suggests a drafting strategy that he calls Cour Four drafting:

In most basic fantasy setups — and we’ll take 5×5 leagues as the standard — there’s a premium placed on certain stats.

  • Home runs, because each one helps a fantasy team in not only homers, but batting average, runs and RBI as well. (Of the majors’ top 23 home run hitters in 2010 — top 20 and ties — 20 of them scored more than 80 runs and 18 of them had 100 or more RBI.)
  • Hits, because each one not only helps in batting average, but gives a player an opportunity to steal a base and score a run. (Of the majors’ top 20 players in hits in 2010, 17 of them more than 80 runs and 14 also had averages above .300.)
  • Stolen bases, because they count on their own and they put a player in better position to score a run. (Of the majors’ top 26 in stolen bases, 18 of them scored 80 or more runs.)
  • And for pitchers, strikeouts, because they keep a batter from reaching base, which in turn benefits their ERA and WHIP and puts them in better position to get a win. (Of the majors’ top 25 in strikeouts, 18 of them ranked in the top 25 in 5×5 Roto dollar value.)

With that in mind, Steve suggests targeting home runs, hits, stolen bases, and strikeouts in the fantasy draft. However, there’s no detail (yet) on how to implement the strategy, which I think will be the real key to judging its value.

The Hardball Times’ Hitter Sleepers

3 Comments
January 20th, 2011 by
Categories: Other Sites, Sleepers

Dave S. at The Hardball Times throws out 13 possible sleepers for fantasy in 2011:

These sleepers can come in all shapes and sizes. Promising rookies looking to make an immediate impact in their debut. Veterans attempting to come back from various injuries and ailments that may have derailed their previous season. Some players have found an expanded role with their club, increased playing time or even a better lineup slot. All of these factors can lead to a player being severely undervalued on draft day, and therefore a sleeper in my book.

I think that’s a pretty good definition of sleeper — which can mean different things to different people (and in different leagues). Of course, I also don’t agree with all of his choices, but that’s to be expected if he is looking for names that others aren’t valuing.

Dave names J.P. Arencibia, Russell Martin, Chris Iannetta, Ike Davis, Juan Miranda, Aaron Hill, Danny Espinosa, Jhonny Peralta, Chris Johnson, Edwin Encarnacion, Hunter Pence, Chris Young, and Ryan Raburn as his fantasy sleepers for 2011.

Evaluating the Mayberry Method

7 Comments
January 19th, 2011 by
Categories: Strategy

In 2010, Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster introduced the Mayberry Method — a simple fantasy valuation system named after the town where everything is simpler. The 2011 Forecaster has an updated version of the Mayberry Method.

The basic idea is that each player receives a 7-letter code, e.g. “3425 ABA.” Each of those numbers represents the player’s value in a different skill category. Hitters are evaluated by power, speed, average, playing time, and reliability (the three letters). Pitchers have run prevention, strikeouts, saves, playing time, and reliability.

The categories break down something like this:

xBA
Below .240 0
.240 – .254 1
.255 – .269 2
.270 – .284 3
.285 – .299 4
.300+ 5

So Josh Hamilton gets a 5 for the BA slot; Mark Reynolds gets a 0. Most people will be somewhere in between. Repeat that for each of the categories, and you end up with a 4-digit summary of a player’s fantasy value. Three letters are added to that to indicate a player’s reliability, based on Shandler’s existing reliability scales.

I think the idea is intriguing, but I would make a couple criticisms:

Proprietary Stats – Shandler loves to use his own stats — PQS, PX, SX, etc. — several of which show up in the Mayberry Method formula. He even insists on giving his own names to stats everyone else uses (like dominance for K/9).

Now, Shandler is trying to sell a product (books and website subscriptions), so it makes sense to make his fantasy stats dependent on having that product. The downside is that it makes it very difficult for his ideas to become mainstream. When the Mayberry Method is based on PX, and no one knows how to compute PX, I don’t see the Mayberry Method gaining much popularity. Plus, isn’t it supposed to be a simple system? How is PX simpler than just looking at HR?

Simple Scales – The Mayberry Method is supposed to be simple, because each skill is rated on a scale from 0-5. That’s easy to remember and easy to use for simple value calculations. However, saves only go from 0-3. The plate appearances category just uses 0, 1, 3, and 5. The reliability scores are letters! It seems that for a supposedly simple system, there is a bit of needless complexity.

Excess Categories – Once again, the Mayberry Method is intended to be a simplification of fantasy value. Do we need all three letters for reliability? I would argue that past injuries are very limited at predicting future reliability, so much so that I would be hesitant to go beyond about three categories:

Generally healthy (most players)
Injury questions (e.g. Josh Hamilton)
Probably hurt (e.g. Erik Bedard, Justin Duchscherer)

The Mayberry Method’s three A-F reliability scores are overkill for a simple system (and I would question their predictive value even in a complex system).

All that to say, I do like the idea of a simple mnemonic of a player’s value. I just think the Mayberry Method needs a little more refinement to be useful for that purpose.

Is Evan Longoria Overrated?

7 Comments
January 17th, 2011 by
Categories: Other Sites

I’ve been looking through some 2011 fantasy rankings and comparing them with the Price Guide’s rankings with the CAIRO projections. One player I’m noticing consistent disagreement on is Evan Longoria.

Here are a few opinions on Longoria:

ESPN’s Early Top 250: #5

Razzball’s Top 10: #4

Imaginary Diamond’s Top 20: #4

Mock Draft Central ADP: #5

Everyone agrees that only Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, and Miguel Cabrera are better options for 2011. (MDC adds Troy Tulowitzki; ESPN adds Carl Crawford.) There appears to be basic agreement that Longoria is an elite option at third who should be off the board by the first half of the first round.

It is a little surprising, then, to see where the Price Guide values Longoria among fantasy hitters using the CAIRO projections:

2011 CAIRO: #24

Just for reference, here are his end-of-season ranks among fantasy hitters via the Price Guide the past two years:

2010: #22

2009: #22

So what gives? Even if #24 is a little low, it seems pretty much in line with what Longoria has shown he can do over his big league career. What is causing people to move him up so high, even in spite of his recent performances, which have been very good rather than elite? I have a couple of ideas as I try to figure out what people are thinking:

1. Youth – Longoria just turned 25, so he can still be expected to be improving as a player. (CAIRO should be factoring in aging curves, though…)

2. Pedigree – Longoria was an early-first-round pick (#3) in the 2006 draft. Even if his stats to-date haven’t been worthy of a first-round fantasy pick, his scouting profile suggests a high-ceiling that he has yet to reach.

3. Consistency – In 2009, Longoria ranked behind Mark Reynolds and Ryan Zimmerman at 3B. Last year, he was fourth behind Jose Bautista, Adrian Beltre, and David Wright. Longoria rises to the top for 2011 for being the only consistent top-tier 3B over the past couple years. (Can that launch him to the beginning of the first round, though?)

4. Skillset – In 2009, Longoria bashed 33 HR. In 2010, the power went down (22 HR), but that was balanced by gains in AVG and SB. Assuming Longoria is capable of all three skills, putting the three together would make him a top-tier player. (.300 AVG, 30 HR, 15 SB is basically a better Matt Holliday…)

5. Hot starts – In both of his two full seasons in the majors, Longoria has been terrific in April and May. Early in the season, he has frequently been the most valuable fantasy player according to the Price Guide. Maybe the prognosticators are remembering his early-season heroics too favorably. Or, they are seeing those months as closer to Longoria’s true talent, and are waiting for the season without a cool stretch in late summer.

I don’t know which of those reasons people are using to rank Longoria so favorably, or if it is some combination of them. But what is it I’m missing on Evan Longoria?

Valuing Middle Relievers

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January 15th, 2011 by
Categories: Strategy

This week brought news that the New York Yankees signed Rafael Soriano, a move that appears to make Soriano a very highly-paid 8th inning man for 2011. It’s a signing that is huge for the fantasy value for the guy who led the league in saves last year: After the news broke, I adjusted Soriano’s projected save totals on the Price Guide from 36 to a still-optimistic 12 saves.

Amazingly, the Price Guide thinks Soriano is still pretty valuable. Despite having only half or a third of their save numbers, with the default setup he ranks above closers like David Aardsma, Francisco Cordero, Andrew Bailey, and Huston Street. The difference is in ERA/WHIP: All of those guys with a 9th-inning role have ERAs projected above 3.60 and many have unimpressive WHIPs (e.g. Cordero’s projected 1.36 WHIP). CAIRO thinks Soriano can do much better than that (3.14 ERA, 1.00 WHIP).

This is an excellent reminder of the value of middle relievers in fantasy. Do you think Soriano will really cost more in your draft than a guy like Aardsma or Cordero? I think fantasy drafters have an easier time of comprehending the value to their team of a counting stat (35 saves) than a rate stat (1.00 WHIP). When the Price Guide does the heavy lifting, however, it sees a top-notch middle-reliever who can vulture saves to be just as valuable as a lot of guys with 30+ saves.

And for keeper leagues: Rafael Soriano has a good chance to be back at 40 saves in 2012.

Projecting Playing Time

3 Comments
January 14th, 2011 by
Categories: Projections, Site News

I mentioned last week that one of my goals for this fantasy draft season is to add playing time projections early on. Today I’ve added a new checkbox to the Price Guide setup screen: Adjust for playing time.

Here’s what I’ve done:

- I started with FanGraphs’ Community Forecasts for Plate Appearances (PA) and Innings Pitched (IP). I lowered the pitchers’ totals across the board, though: They seemed too high by 10-15%. FanGraphs, however, is missing lots of players who would need to be projected for fantasy baseball.

- Next, I checked the depth charts for every team at MLBDepthCharts.com. I added every player who showed up on a team’s projected roster. Those that didn’t have a FanGraphs projection I gave a base projection of 350 PA for hitters, 140 IP for SP, and 45 IP for RP.

- The last step is the hardest, and the one where I’d appreciate your input. I need to go though and bump up guys above the baseline if they will realistically get more playing time. I need to add minor leaguers who won’t be on a team’s opening day roster but who do have a chance at a midseason callup. This is going to be a tedious process of looking at each player’s recent history and adjusting their 2011 playing time to a realistic projection.

So if you have a favorite team, you might glance through the projections to see if you can find any particularly egregious mistakes.

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