SubscribeI posted last week about some fantasy draft strategies for acquiring a shortstop this year, and I thought I would post some similar thoughts for another position. Let’s try catcher.
When developing a catcher draft strategy, the crucial thing to keep in mind is whether your fantasy league starts 1 or 2 catchers. Starting two catchers requires a disproportionate amount of digging at the position (which is probably why the big public leagues have tended to go with just one, instead). It also causes a huge jump in catcher values to compensate for the much lower replacement level. My strategy is highly dependent on how the league is set up.
Roll the Dice
In 1-catcher leagues especially, I am very tempted to roll the dice on catcher this year — it just seems like there are lots of intriguing options available. J.P. Arencibia is a top prospect who looks to have a clear path to the majors with John Buck out of Toronto. Chris Iannetta shared time with Miguel Olivo last year, but looks to see significant time for Colorado. It was not long ago that Russell Martin was an elite option at catcher. Even with Jesus Montero looming, Martin could be poised for a bounceback with a change of scenery. All of those guys have ADPs outside the top 300, which means their upside comes at a great, low price.
Another great thing about targeting these guys is that you don’t have to put all your eggs in one basket. With some reserves spots, you can easily carry an extra catcher. Assuming they are coming cheap, why not take two of these guys? I’ll let other teams take the safe end-game commodities — Kurt Suzuki, Yadier Molina, A.J. Pierzynski. Give me two cheap guys with actual upside, and I think I can strike it rich on at least one of them.
Victor Martinez — An Undervalued Top-Tier Option?
I’m willing to take on some risk for one catcher spot, but I hesitate to fill two spots with question marks (maybe because I drafted Jeff Clement and J.R. Towles in too many leagues last year…). For a two-catcher league, I kind of like to have a consistent producer sitting in one of those spots.
So where is the sweet spot for high-end catchers? While all I’ve got so far is CAIRO, I’m not seeing a huge difference in the projections between Joe Mauer and Victor Martinez at the top of the catcher ranks. Mauer looks to have the better BA, but Martinez tops him in power. I think either one could easily be the top catcher in 2011.
With that in mind, one possible strategy is to pass on Mauer. Let your league set the price on him, and that should set the ceiling for Martinez’s price. Obviously, you’re hoping Martinez comes a good deal cheaper, but I’d still be willing to pay up to the same price as Mauer.
In a 1-catcher league, however, I have a hard time paying for a top-tier option. Especially with the sleepers above, there seem to be plenty of value plays that make more sense than forking out $25+ for Mauer or Martinez. So much of your catcher’s value is coming from his positional eligibility that there seems to be a lot of flux in the rankings each year.
Don’t Count Out Jorge Posada
Despite the best of plans, Drafts never go exactly as expected. While I’d love to get Victor this year, I never want to be completely set on getting one particular player that I have to overpay. I need a backup plan in case things don’t work out the way I thought they would.
So who else is interesting at catcher? Comparing the Price Guide rankings to MockDraftCentral’s ADP, I’m surprised at how closely the catcher rankings correspond. The only significant departure I see is what to do with Jorge Posada… The Price Guide has him at #7 among catchers, and ADP puts him as the 10th best.
I’m guessing age is the biggest reason fantasy drafters are avoiding Posada. Even with two other intriguing catching options on the Yankees (Martin and Montero), I don’t see playing time being an issue, assuming he gets plenty of time to DH. The DHing could even be a big positive, as he could have even fewer days off than when he was catching. Plus, staying off the field cuts down on his chances for injury.
All of that to say, there doesn’t seem to be a huge gap in projections between Posada and, say, Brian McCann. The pricetag for Posada seems a lot better, though. Pair him with one of the gambles mentioned above if you want an injury Plan B.
That gives me a solid top-tier target (Martinez), a mid-tier option (Posada), and several late-round gambles with plenty of upside.