Archive for March, 2011

Playing Time Updates

15 Comments
March 28th, 2011 by
Categories: Site News

With the start of Tango’s Community Forecast, I’m switching over to that as my source of playing time data. FanGraphs’ fan projections suffered from the weight of projections early in the spring, before injuries and situations were better known. They were also rough around the edges for fringe starters who can be important in AL/NL-only leagues.

This is illustrated in some of the biggest drops after the change:

Chase Utley
Kendrys Morales
Johan Santana
Kevin Slowey
Marc Rzepczynski

Picking up time, mostly due to recent Spring Training news, include:

Brad Emaus
Dustin Ackley
Mark Trumbo
Mike Morse
Will Rhymes
Rick Ankiel
Brent Morel
Brandon Beachy

I’ll update everything in a couple of days as the votes even out.

Michael Pineda Added

8 Comments
March 16th, 2011 by
Categories: Projections

A small update: I’ve included a playing time projection for Michael Pineda, as it looks increasingly likely he starts the season in the Mariners’ rotation.

Given 140 IP, he actually projects above replacement level in a standard mixed league ($3). He’s in a mix of high-upside pitchers valued in the low single digits (Jordan Zimmermann, Brian Matusz, Johnny Cueto). I think a 4.00 ERA and 1.30 WHIP are actually pretty realistic for 2011, especially since he gets a little help pitching in Safeco.

Does this Tool Exist?

25 Comments
March 16th, 2011 by
Categories: Strategy, Theory

Lately, I’ve been imagining a tool that would offer in-draft advising about which fantasy player to draft. I’m curious if anyone else thinks this sort of tool would be useful and if anyone knows of an existing fantasy tool that does this.

Essentially, I’m interested in two things during the fantasy draft:

Tell me how much each available player helps my team. I imagine this in terms of Standings Gain Points (SGP) — how many points in the standings would I gain if I added this player to my team? If it knows which players each team has already drafted, these would be SGPs customized for my particular team and situation. And so it presents a list of players ranked by their SGP benefit to my team.

At first, the players with high dollar values will also be the ones with the biggest SGP benefit. However, I could see things shifting as the draft progresses. Maybe I’m weak in stolen bases, so that drafting Juan Pierre could move me up 5 SGP. Pierre might not be the highest valued player on the board in terms of dollar value, but he could be the player with the biggest benefit to my team in this particular situation.

Pierre’s dollar value — calculated for an average team in an average league — could still be static. But I might be willing to go a few dollars over his book value if this tool tells me I really need SB. Or I let a similarly valued player like Carlos Lee slide (even at a low price) so that I can save an OF spot for Pierre. Or I see that Pierre, Brett Gardner, and Rajai Davis would all provide a good SGP boost to my team, so I don’t need to spend any extra as long as I get one of them.

Potentially, all of these data could be factored in to actually adjust Pierre’s dollar value. My initial, simplified idea would just present an assessment of the pros and cons and let the drafter decide how to use that information.

Tell me how much each available player helps each other team. Secondarily, I’m also concerned about keeping players from my rivals. What hurts my opponents may help me, even if there is no direct SGP benefit for my team. I might draft a player who gives me no SGP if that ensures he stays off the team of my closest opponent (where perhaps he would give 5-6 SGP and let that team pass me in the standings).

And so I imagine the tool listing out — alongside the SGPs each player contributes to my team — the SGPs that each player would give every other team.

Those two things seem like they would be pretty simple to implement. And so I’m curious:

Would this tool actually help in a fantasy draft or auction?
Does anyone know if there’s already a fantasy product out there that does this?
What other information might this type of tool factor in to its recommendations?

2011 Steamer Projections

22 Comments
March 15th, 2011 by
Categories: Projections, Site News

You may have noticed an addition to the Price Guide‘s projection options over the weekend — the 2011 Steamer projections.

Steamer is the work of J. Cross and a team of high school students. But before you disregard this as a simple high school project — Steamer’s pitching projections were the best performing in 2010. Better than CHONE, ZiPS, CAIRO, and Marcel. This makes me sad after seeing their projection for Daniel Hudson (4.45 ERA, 1.42 WHIP), who I’ve been hyping all spring based on his otherwise favorable projections. Needless to say, though, these are quality projections comparable to or better than the others available here.

The only reason Steamer hasn’t got much publicity here is because they have typically been released after much of the fantasy drafting season. It’s fortunate for us that they’ve managed to push them out much earlier in 2011.

Note that these are currently not part of the composite projections. I’ll work them in if I get the chance.

Using Multiple Greasemonkey Scripts

18 Comments
March 13th, 2011 by
Categories: Greasemonkey Scripts, Site News

As you may know, it is possible to display Price Guide dollar values inside your league homepage using a Firefox add-on called Greasemonkey. A Greasemonkey script with values customized for your league is available at the top of each Price Guide results page.

I’ve talked about this feature in the past, and a reader suggested I add it as a category to the blog. I thought that was a great idea, so now you can click Greasemonkey Scripts to the left to see past posts about this, including screenshots of the scripts in action. I encourage you to check out those posts if you haven’t tried out this feature before and want to find out more.

The same reader asked how to have two (or more) scripts to handle multiple leagues with differing configurations — for example having different scripts for two different Yahoo leagues. I actually don’t think I’ve made a post about that, although I may have explained it in emails and comments. In Firefox, just go to Tools – Greasemonkey – Manage User Scripts and click Edit for the script you want to change.

In whatever text editor (e.g. Notepad) that pops up, you should see a line near the top like this:

@include        http://baseball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/*

Change that line to include your league ID:

@include        http://baseball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/b1/000000/*

…where 000000 is your numeric league id. (It should be the same as the URL to your league homepage.) Make sure you keep the “*” at the end. Save the file and close, and the script should only apply to that particular league. Repeat those steps for the scripts for your other Yahoo leagues as well.

The process is similar for CBSSports and ESPN. On CBSSports the include line will be something like:

@include        *leaguename.baseball.cbssports.com/*

…where leaguename is the name of your league. (Once again, it should match the URL of your league homepage.)

ESPN will be this:

@include        http://games.espn.go.com/flb/*leagueId=00000*

I’ll be happy to explain more in the comments if anyone has questions about this.

2011 Overrated/Underrated – Round 11+

1 Comment
March 11th, 2011 by
Categories: Busts, Projections, Sleepers

Yesterday, I started going through who I like and don’t like at their current ADPs, looking at Rounds 1-10. Most of these are come just from comparing composite projections here on the Price Guide to MockDraftCentral’s ADP, but there are a few where I’m disagreeing with both.

Round 11:
Brandon Morrow (126) – I like the K’s, but he hasn’t shown he can get his ERA under 4.00, yet.
Daniel Hudson (130) – I’ve already talked about why I think he’s a bargain. Obviously, he can’t maintain a sub-2.00 ERA, but he’s a steal at his current position if he can even put up a 3.70 ERA.

Round 12:
Ricky Romero (136) – He’s Brandon Morrow without the K’s. There are plenty of better pitchers still available.
Mike Stanton (140) – Great power upside should at least put him in the top 100.

Round 13:
Alex Gonzalez (148) – I like the old Braves SS (Yunel Escobar) better, and he comes about 170 picks later.
Jorge Posada (149) – He’s not dead yet. I think he’ll get plenty of ABs at DH.

Round 14:
Chris Perez (158) – Looked good in half a season, but I’m not sold, yet.
Drew Stubbs (157) – Power/speed combo that is mysteriously undervalued. What’s the difference between him and Ian Stewart four rounds earlier? The only one I see is that Stubbs can also steal 30 bases.

Round 15:
James Shields (172) – Like most people, I expect him to bounce back from last year’s 5.18 ERA/1.39 WHIP campaign. However, his ERA wasn’t great in 2009 either (4.14), so I’m concerned about him getting back in the 3.00′s.
Hiroki Kuroda (175) – The K’s aren’t overly impressive, but they aren’t terrible either. The Price Guide sees him as basically equal to Yovani Gallardo (trade some K’s for WHIP), but Gallardo is being drafted 100 picks earlier.

Round 16:
No complaints.

Round 17:
Marco Scutaro (193) – I’m thinking Lowrie gets at least 400 AB this year, and Scutaro is going to be the playing time victim. If he has the same stats as in the past but loses 200 AB, Scutaro drops off the mixed league radar.
Ted Lilly (195) – I’ve got him projected to basically be Chad Billingsley with a better WHIP (3.60 ERA, 1.25 WHIP). Billingsley is going 84th overall.

Round 18:
Jon Niese (209) – Is there reason to expect him to improve on last year’s 4.20 ERA?
Matt Thornton (206) – Dominance against lefties and righties makes him the obvious choice for the closer’s job. I think he ends the year as a top-tier closer.

Round 19:
Derek Holland (226) – Good K/9 points to upside, but I think the risk is greater.
Jose Tabata (224) – I think there’s a bit of Pirate-ignorance among baseball fans. Tabata looks very similar to me to Shane Victorino (ADP 145) — .280 with 10 HR and 30 SB. I also like Neil Walker (277).

Round 20:
Fernando Rodney (230) – A scary closer.
Rajai Davis (236) – Can steal 50 bags and score plenty of runs at the top of the Toronto lineup.

Round 21:
Matt Capps (250) – If I’m grabbing a closer in waiting, I’d much rather have Joaquin Benoit (ND), Daniel Bard (304), or Luke Gregerson (386). Not only do I think they have a better shot of saves this year, I think they are just better pitchers than Capps.
Angel Pagan (242) – Breakout 2010 gives Pagan playing time for 2011. He looks like a well-rounded late-rounder.

A few other names with large gaps between ADP and the composite projections:

Joe Nathan (217)
Chris Iannetta (268)
Neil Walker (277)
Tsuyoshi Nishioka (281)
J.P. Arencibia (310)
Yunel Escobar (321)
Chris Coghlan (331)
Dallas Braden (364)

2011 Overrated/Underrated – Rounds 1-10

13 Comments
March 10th, 2011 by
Categories: Busts, Projections, Sleepers

Looking through the composite projections, let’s try to find some guys who look to be over- or underpriced based on their current fantasy ADP. I’ll see if I can find one guy in each category for each round (ADP in parenthesis):

Round 1:
Evan Longoria (5) – Longoria has never put up 1st round numbers, and I’m not betting my first round pick on upside. I’ve already written about Longoria being overrated.
Ryan Braun (9) – A 5-category contributor like Braun shouldn’t be hanging around the second half of the first round. He’s a great building block to get your team established in every category.

Round 2:
Matt Kemp (24) – I’m not really down on Kemp, I just think he’s a better choice in the 3rd round. I think the second round actually looks pretty good.
Matt Holliday (23) – Like Braun, Holliday is a consistent, 5-category performer.

Round 3:
Ichiro Suzuki (32) – I can get steals and average much later. Ichiro is a fun and unique player in real life but perennially overrated in fantasy.
Cliff Lee (36) – Looks great back in the NL with lots of win opportunities.

Round 4:
Jimmy Rollins (40) – Aging skills make him a liability in average, and he doesn’t have the power and speed he used to. Shortstop scarcity is no excuse.
Zack Greinke (47) – As with Lee, I like pitchers moving to good NL teams. The injury doesn’t scare me and could let him come even cheaper.

Round 5:
Mariano Rivera (59) – The Price Guide puts him as the top closer as well, but he scares me more than Wilson (74), Bell (80), or Soria (67).

Round 6:
Elvis Andrus (68) – Has steals but no power or average. I like the balanced Alexei Ramirez (96) much better.
Josh Johnson (72) – I can’t imagine taking David Price (61) or Yovani Gallardo (63) ahead of Johnson. Gallardo hasn’t shown he can help in WHIP, and Price’s wins are hard to predict.

Round 7:
No major complaints, here.

Round 8:
Trevor Cahill (91) – Doesn’t help in strikeouts, the lack of which also causes concern for ERA and WHIP.
Alexei Ramirez (96) – Best mid-round SS value.

Round 9:
Casey McGehee (106) – Getting 100 RBIs last year looks flukey. Also no longer 2B-eligible.
Roy Oswalt (105) – Oswalt or Cahill? I’m taking Oswalt.

Round 10:
Ian Stewart (113) – Batting average and playing time are concerns.
Mike Napoli (116) – Batting average and playing time are concerns, but that’s okay because he’s a catcher. In fact, I have Napoli and Stewart projected very similarly, but catcher eligibility makes Napoli a bargain in the 10th and Stewart a risk.

Creating a Fantasy Budget

13 Comments
March 8th, 2011 by
Categories: Auctions, Other Sites

Two great articles showed up recently on how to create a budget at a fantasy baseball auction. The first is by one of my favorites, Todd Zola at Mastersball:

Tiers are the key to this means of budget allocation. What you need to do is always make sure that there is available inventory to fill your open lines. Tiers are the easiest manner to do this. If you have a $20 spot and you note the inventory of players you expect to go in that range is dwindling, you need to make a purchase soon or distribute that $20 line to other lines that better match up with the remaining player pool. This is the biggest mistake made in auctions and it has nothing to do with your ability to evaluate and rank players. Having too much money left to buy the available talent is not the recipe for success. For me, tiers are an invaluable tool to track if I am properly budgeted to best acquire the available players.

Todd’s approach is to bring to the auction a list of 14 target dollar values for hitters and 9 values for pitchers. For example, you know you want a $35 hitter and two at $30. During the draft, you adjust the values as needed: If you overspend at one position, you have to drop the targets somewhere else. If you get a bargain, you can increase your remaining targets.

You also bring to the fantasy auction player tiers that correspond to your targets: $35 hitters, $30, $25, and so on. You watch these tiers to make sure you are able to get the kinds of players you are targeting. As Todd mentions in the excerpt above, as the players in a tier run out, you need to make sure you get one of the remaining ones or reallocate the targeted cash.

The other article comes from Advanced Fantasy Baseball, which makes the price targets specific to each position:

We should probably spend big on a 1B, maybe $25, since they normally produce big power numbers and are easier to replace than are some other positions. We should also consider spending a good bit at 3B, since they can also give you good power numbers. (Some people worry that 3B is a scarce position, but we’ll examine that idea a little later.) In the middle infield, I’ll typically allocate less money per position, maybe $15 each for the 2B and SS. Let’s say $5 for the CI and $5 for the MI.

Here, I don’t know if I can support budgeting to this extent. If you allocate $25 to a 1B, aren’t you ruling out Pujols at $40 and Billy Butler at $10 from the very start? I would be okay with Butler as my primary 1B, assuming I spend the money elsewhere (perhaps shoring up my infield with a top SS and 2B).

I find myself more comfortable with Todd’s approach that (for example) targets a $30 hitter and a $20 hitter, regardless of position. Then, if I get a $14 bargain, I reallocate the $6 I saved on my $20 target to increase other targets. That’s a an approach that provides a structured plan to the draft but is still flexible enough to deal with auction dynamics.

Having said that, both of these articles are great, in-depth reading that can apply to any fantasy auction situation.

Bold Prediction: Dan Hudson’s ERA Goes Up in 2011

2 Comments
March 4th, 2011 by
Categories: Other Sites, Sleepers

This year, I’ve discovered the wonder that is fantasy baseball podcasts, thanks mostly to having an MP3 player that lets me listen to them while driving.

I caught an interesting argument on a recent CBSSports podcast regarding Diamondbacks pitcher Dan Hudson:

Al Melchior: Hudson actually is somebody I’m not as high on for this year. Long term I like the guy. But [he] had some very odd looking numbers last year — very, very low BABIP, also very, very low HR/FB ratio, which is a very dangerous thing for a guy who gives up a lot of flyballs and pitches in a homerun ballpark. So I think the ERA is going to go up. Actually the ERA and the WHIP I think will go up this year. I think he could disappoint in 2011.

Yes, you heard it here first: Dan Hudson will not repeat his 1.69 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. The ERA and the WHIP “will go up this year.” Those of you expecting him to be a $55 player as he dominates the league in those categories can prepare for disappointment.

Actually, I’m pretty sure no one is expecting Hudson to maintain the rates he had last year with Arizona. So, while Al’s argument is technically accurate, it is also pointless. Of course his ERA and WHIP will go up.

The real question is: Can Hudson maintain enough ERA/WHIP to still be a valuable fantasy player in 2011? Obviously, he doesn’t have to have a sub-2.00 ERA to be a very good pitcher this year. His ERA can go up and he can still be a breakout pitcher this year — those aren’t mutually exclusive.

A few points to consider when answering that question:

Hudson has a very good minor league pedigree and track record. He’s a 5th rounder who shot up from A ball to AAA in 2009, posting solid numbers at all four levels.

Hudson gets the benefit of pitching in the NL West. We would expect some natural improvement to occur as a pitcher moves from AL to NL, although not as much as Hudson showed last year going from CWS to ARI. He’s pitching his home games in a bit of a hitters park, but he’s also getting opportunities in SF and SD pitcher parks and is facing weaker lineups than in the AL.

Hudson has shown an excellent strikeout rate. He posted 7.9 K/9 last year, and he was above 10 K/9 in the minors. Strikeouts are valuable in fantasy, and pitchers with lots of Ks also tend to have good ERAs and WHIPs.

So let’s put that all together: Projections are designed to estimate how much a player typically regresses after posting an extraordinarily good (or bad) season. They often take into account things like an unusual BABIP or HR/FB rate. So here’s what the projections think Hudson can do this year:

Marcel: 3.12 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
CAIRO: 3.47 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
ZiPS:3.56 ERA, 1.23 WHIP

Let’s say all of those are still too optimistic, and Hudson’s really closer to a 3.70 ERA, 1.25 WHIP. That’s still a top 25 pitcher. And if he’s a top 25 pitcher he’s a bargain at where he’s being drafted right now.

Point League Price Guide

19 Comments
March 1st, 2011 by
Categories: Site News

I’m trying out something new today: A version of the Price Guide for Points Leagues.

Basically, instead of checking boxes for the stat categories your league uses, you enter a point value for each stat. Values can be positive or negative and can include decimals. The Price Guide then totals everyone’s projected points, applies a positional adjustment, and then converts to dollar values.

I can’t find any sort of standardized setup for points leagues, so I know the default is pretty atypical (judging by the excessive love of catchers). If you know what values are normal for a points league, please let me know.

And if you notice any problems with or have any suggestions for the new version, feel free to email or comment below.