Last Player Picked

The Price Guide provides several options when you are choosing which set of stats to base the dollar values off of:

CAIRO
by SG of Replacement Level Yankees Weblog

The CAIRO projections build upon the techniques used by Marcel, with a few enhancments. They use five years of data instead of three and are park-adjusted. They also include projections for minor league players. You can find more about them at RLYW.

Marcel
provided by Tom Tango

The Marcel the Monkey Forecasting System is the simplest projection system, using a weighted average of stats from the past three years regressed to the mean.

ZiPS
by Dan Szymborski of Baseball Think Factory

ZiPS is another system with a very strong track record for accuracy. Feel free to join the discussion of the projections over at the Transaction Oracle.

Composite
In 2011, the composite projections are an average of 16 available sources.

Before 2011, the composite projections were simply an average of CHONE, CAIRO, and ZiPS. It takes the edge off some of each system’s extreme predictions to give the most balanced values. Marcel is not included in the composite since it seems to weigh down the players with little MLB experience.

In the past, I also had versions of the composites adjusted for playing time. In 2011 all projections have the option to apply a playing time adjustment.

CHONE
by Sean Smith of Anaheim Angels all the way and BaseballProjection.com

More goes into the CHONE projections than I will explain here, but it has an excellent track record for accuracy. The projections include minor league players and players from Japan’s NPB. Sean stopped publicizing CHONE after 2010.