SubscribeAJ Mass at ESPN explains how Jacoby Ellsbury should be a first round pick this year.
Regarding those who might prefer Prince Fielder or Ryan Howard in the late first round, AJ says:
They might have mainstream public opinion on their side, but you would have mathematics. Allow me to explain why you just can’t let him get past you with, say, the seventh, eighth or ninth pick in the first round and leave open the possibility that he might not make it back to you. You need to take him with that first-round pick.
Well, who am I to argue with mathematics?
AJ’s idea is what he calls “Mass Effect,” a valuation system that makes Ellsbury the #1 overall player in fantasy last year. That’s right: Jacoby Ellsbury, Fantasy MVP.
Did I mention that it ranks Carl Crawford #2, Derek Jeter #5, and Ichiro Suzuki #7? Something doesn’t seem right here…
Well, AJ acknowledges that Mass Effect has “one flaw.” He explains how stolen bases become less valuable throughout the season due to diminishing returns. So to adjust for the changing value of stolen bases, he decides to knock off 50% of the value of each stolen base.
I’m sure he went through some of his extensive mathematics to come up with that 50% figure, since it drops Ellsbury from #1 overall to a much more realistic #10 overall.
Just to recap:
1. Come up with a player valuation system that doesn’t make sense.
2. Instead of recognizing that the system doesn’t make sense, fudge the numbers some so that they look better and yet still fail to reflect reality.
3. Call it “mathematics.”
I love it.
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This is why someone should analyze all the Yahoo leagues and give us more stats than the current Yahoo folks do.
You could easily look at teams that take Ellsbury in the top 10 slots, and figure out how they did in their leagues. In one individual team or league, there’s too much variance to really know if it’s a good move or not. But across maybe 400 teams that may do something ridiculous like this, I’d bet you can get a good sense of whether it’s smart or dumb.
(If the mathematics on this site and… everywhere else… don’t convince they author he’s wrong already)
By the way… Bill James did the same thing with Win Shares and pitchers in the late-1800′s. He just cut their win shares in half.
That is the kind of stuff I would love my competitors to be reading! As long as they’re reading and believing it, I don’t really mind.
luddites… so his math was wrong. but the concept was there i think. basically a mass chart of each players individual category success rate (like AJ’s idea – a percentage based on the total number of that catargory last year- but more better). so then youd get an overlooking idea of a players “total” “worth”… would love to see a successful version of that. especially visually. a chart would help come draft day…
n,
I apologize if I missed the intended sarcasm. But, there already is a system that quantifies a players success in each category in comparison to his peers, and then sums up that player’s total “worth”… Matter of fact it’s available on this very website. That’s exactly what the price guide does…”but more better”