SubscribeBy request, I’ve added another stat category for the Price Guide: pitcher walks.
It works as you would expect in a normal league (i.e. walking fewer batters is better).
Please let me know if there are any other categories you are interested in. If it’s a stat that is typically projected, it is usually pretty easy to add. (Holds and quality starts, unfortunately, aren’t projected by any of the systems.)
For those who aren’t familiar with it: The Fantasy Baseball Price Guide is an online tool that builds auction dollar values or draft rankings customized for you league. It handles any number of teams, any number of starting positions, and most stat categories. You can also edit the projected stats for any player to fit your own expectations.
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Not about a category but If you wanted i could send you my excel file of multiple projections averaged out. You could include it with marcels chones etc. And don’t worry their not MY projections their actual recognized one’s.
the projections are: CBS, ESPN, Chone, Marcels, Pecota, Oliver aggregated. I Think it would really help your guide. The way the Price Guide analyzes the projections is amazing, the only weakness I see is the projections themselves. By averaging them out you get a good conservative set which most people agree is the best.
I didn’t actually do it myself but a guy at the cafe (saw you joined) has it set up.
I agree with Confused. I think it’s a great idea to have a set of projections combined together. Tango always mentions “the wisdom of the crowds” and this would be a great way to utilize it.
I think you’ve got to be careful about how you go about averaging a set of projections. If you simply average the stats themselves, the impact of a system that uses a higher league average (BIS/James) will have a greater impact, while a more conservative system will be underrepresented. Right? (I’m not completely sure here)
I think the more “correct” way to average them would be either to first get the projections so that they are on the same scale (a multiplier so that each system uses the same league average) or to run each projection through the price guide first, then average the raw and replacement totals for each set of projections. Either way it would be pretty labor intensive, but I think otherwise simply averaging them beforehand would be mathematically incorrect. Again though, I may be wrong. Feel free to correct me if you have a better understanding of statistics than I do…
Nick, that’s a good point. I took 6 sources and combined them, but figured out the rate stat projections by source for the whole set of hitters and pitchers beforehand. For example, for a population of roughly 350 hitters, the triple-slash hitting projections for the group ranged from a high of .275/.342/.445 (.786 OPS) to a low of .269/.342/.430 (.772 OPS).
For pitchers, using a population of about 325 pitchers, one source pegged the group to have a 4.03 ERA and 1.34 WHIP, while another source projected the group to have a 4.34 ERA and 1.38 WHIP.
To combine these projections, for hitters I created a baseline batting line, then subtracted from each hitters’ AVG/OBP/SLG if the source projected the whole group too high, and added if the source projected too low. Same thing for pitchers.
Does CHONE not project saves? Or am I using an incomplete set of projections?
@Molson: Unfortunately, CHONE does not project saves. But here’s a fun little Price Guide secret: Run it with CHONE projections. Then in the address bar, find “09H” and change it to “09X”. It will give you CHONE projections with the Marcel save projections added. It also removes the NPB pitchers.
@Confused: Yeah, I saw the combined projections in the Cafe… I’m still not sure about his decision to take out certain Marcel projections. It seems like you would also want to include a league average projection for players not specifically projected by Marcel (e.g. Wieters) to balance things out.
Mays – thanks for the info on the CHONE projections.
As for projections, leaving out lg average projections makes sense.
If I were averaging, I’d probably take out anyone Marcel regressed more than about 75% towards the mean as there’s not much use in those projections. If you’re using less of a regression, such as if you have fairly reliable MLEs or other scouting reports of some sort, then that projection is more valid and should be included.
@Nick that’s already been somewhat taken account for, considering Bill James’s (very optimistic)projections are not include
@Mays I believe the marcel projections for Wieters are not included because of the reliability rating but the projections from the other sources for wieters are used so the average should be fine I would think.
lol I should probably change my name.
But I won’t:P
for example here’s Wieters in the mean projections.
424 AB 60 Runs 18 HR 65 RBI 2 SB .290 AVG
Those seem pretty fair and the AB seem right.
From this limited sample size I think it would work.
Mays btw how do you feed your projections through, what kind of file type is used?
@Confused: The Price Guide loads the projections from comma-delimited (CSV) files.
Marcel doesn’t specifically project Wieters, so the official projection would be league average. Something like:
442 AB, 59 R, 12 HR, 57 RBI, 7 SB, .262 AVG
It seems like leaving that out means you are only keeping the optimistic projections for young players.
That’s assuming that the projections made are optimistic. Any good projection system is already going to include a a healthy dose of regression to the mean, especially for young players.
Ideally all projection systems would have a reliability score like the marcels do. This would allow you to weight their contribution to your average using the reliability scores.
If you have 2 measurements for the same thing, and one is measured with an 80% confidence and the other other only a 40% confidence, it’s more likely that the actual value is closer to the 80% number than the 40% number, so to get a good estimate of the real number you’d take value=(.8*#1+.4*#2)/1.2.
At least for the level of accuracy that we’re looking at with these projections, anyway.
I have six projections for Wieters and they’re all more optimistic than league average. PECOTA is high on their projection for Wieters compared to the rest.
425 AB, 47 R, 15 HR, 56 RBI, .278 AVG–CBS
419 AB, 59 R, 15 HR, 64 RBI, .274 AVG–Chone
341 AB, 44 R, 13 HR, 52 RBI, .286 AVG–FSC
338 AB, 49 R, 14 HR, 55 RBI, .290 AVG–SF
451 AB, 67 R, 16 HR, 62 RBI, .294 AVG–Cairo
405 PA, 65 R, 19 HR, 63 RBI, .311 AVG–PFM
FSC is Fantasy Sports Central
SF is Sports Fanatics
PFM is from the BP depth charts
Mays If i converted my projections to CSV could i not upload themselves to run my own projections through the price guide?
@BobbyRoberto, by “optimistic” I didn’t mean simply “better than average” I meant “overstated due to hype.”
If everyone who “knows” something thinks that Weiters is going to be better than league average, there’s no reason to average in Marcel’s completely clueless guess into it.
Hello,
Great Site! Any chance you will add Holds and/or Quality Starts as possible pitching categories?
No one projects holds or quality starts. For quality starts you just have to use your judgement on efficient pitchers (extreme example Roy Halladay)
Great site, thanks for all of the hard work on the Price Guide. First an FYI, Chone posted an upsdated set of projections yesterday. Second, is the “composite” the set of projections the poster mentioned in the commetns above?
Mays, Can you add the following categories? (SB-CS), (K/AB) for hitters, (Errors) for hitters, (K-BB) for pitchers. Man, this site is awesome!