Comments on: Another New Price Guide Category: Pitcher Walks

By: Jooky Junk

Jooky Junk — Sat, 28 Feb 2009 15:53:22 +0000

Mays, Can you add the following categories? (SB-CS), (K/AB) for hitters, (Errors) for hitters, (K-BB) for pitchers. Man, this site is awesome!

By: hankp101

hankp101 — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 23:03:07 +0000

Great site, thanks for all of the hard work on the Price Guide. First an FYI, Chone posted an upsdated set of projections yesterday. Second, is the “composite” the set of projections the poster mentioned in the commetns above?

By: Confused

Confused — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 03:35:39 +0000

No one projects holds or quality starts. For quality starts you just have to use your judgement on efficient pitchers (extreme example Roy Halladay)

By: Wombaty

Wombaty — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 02:35:39 +0000

Hello,
Great Site! Any chance you will add Holds and/or Quality Starts as possible pitching categories?

By: Molson

Molson — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 22:15:13 +0000

@BobbyRoberto, by “optimistic” I didn’t mean simply “better than average” I meant “overstated due to hype.”

If everyone who “knows” something thinks that Weiters is going to be better than league average, there’s no reason to average in Marcel’s completely clueless guess into it.

By: Confused

Confused — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 20:03:39 +0000

Mays If i converted my projections to CSV could i not upload themselves to run my own projections through the price guide?

By: BobbyRoberto

BobbyRoberto — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 19:45:10 +0000

I have six projections for Wieters and they’re all more optimistic than league average. PECOTA is high on their projection for Wieters compared to the rest.

425 AB, 47 R, 15 HR, 56 RBI, .278 AVG–CBS
419 AB, 59 R, 15 HR, 64 RBI, .274 AVG–Chone
341 AB, 44 R, 13 HR, 52 RBI, .286 AVG–FSC
338 AB, 49 R, 14 HR, 55 RBI, .290 AVG–SF
451 AB, 67 R, 16 HR, 62 RBI, .294 AVG–Cairo
405 PA, 65 R, 19 HR, 63 RBI, .311 AVG–PFM

FSC is Fantasy Sports Central
SF is Sports Fanatics
PFM is from the BP depth charts

By: Molson

Molson — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 19:42:30 +0000

That’s assuming that the projections made are optimistic. Any good projection system is already going to include a a healthy dose of regression to the mean, especially for young players.

Ideally all projection systems would have a reliability score like the marcels do. This would allow you to weight their contribution to your average using the reliability scores.

If you have 2 measurements for the same thing, and one is measured with an 80% confidence and the other other only a 40% confidence, it’s more likely that the actual value is closer to the 80% number than the 40% number, so to get a good estimate of the real number you’d take value=(.8*#1+.4*#2)/1.2.

At least for the level of accuracy that we’re looking at with these projections, anyway.

By: Mays

Mays — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 19:30:40 +0000

@Confused: The Price Guide loads the projections from comma-delimited (CSV) files.

Marcel doesn’t specifically project Wieters, so the official projection would be league average. Something like:

442 AB, 59 R, 12 HR, 57 RBI, 7 SB, .262 AVG

It seems like leaving that out means you are only keeping the optimistic projections for young players.

By: Confused

Confused — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 15:37:33 +0000

for example here’s Wieters in the mean projections.

424 AB 60 Runs 18 HR 65 RBI 2 SB .290 AVG

Those seem pretty fair and the AB seem right.
From this limited sample size I think it would work.

Mays btw how do you feed your projections through, what kind of file type is used?