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2011 Overrated/Underrated – Rounds 1-10

13 Comments
March 10th, 2011 by
Categories: Busts, Projections, Sleepers

Looking through the composite projections, let’s try to find some guys who look to be over- or underpriced based on their current fantasy ADP. I’ll see if I can find one guy in each category for each round (ADP in parenthesis):

Round 1:
Evan Longoria (5) – Longoria has never put up 1st round numbers, and I’m not betting my first round pick on upside. I’ve already written about Longoria being overrated.
Ryan Braun (9) – A 5-category contributor like Braun shouldn’t be hanging around the second half of the first round. He’s a great building block to get your team established in every category.

Round 2:
Matt Kemp (24) – I’m not really down on Kemp, I just think he’s a better choice in the 3rd round. I think the second round actually looks pretty good.
Matt Holliday (23) – Like Braun, Holliday is a consistent, 5-category performer.

Round 3:
Ichiro Suzuki (32) – I can get steals and average much later. Ichiro is a fun and unique player in real life but perennially overrated in fantasy.
Cliff Lee (36) – Looks great back in the NL with lots of win opportunities.

Round 4:
Jimmy Rollins (40) – Aging skills make him a liability in average, and he doesn’t have the power and speed he used to. Shortstop scarcity is no excuse.
Zack Greinke (47) – As with Lee, I like pitchers moving to good NL teams. The injury doesn’t scare me and could let him come even cheaper.

Round 5:
Mariano Rivera (59) – The Price Guide puts him as the top closer as well, but he scares me more than Wilson (74), Bell (80), or Soria (67).

Round 6:
Elvis Andrus (68) – Has steals but no power or average. I like the balanced Alexei Ramirez (96) much better.
Josh Johnson (72) – I can’t imagine taking David Price (61) or Yovani Gallardo (63) ahead of Johnson. Gallardo hasn’t shown he can help in WHIP, and Price’s wins are hard to predict.

Round 7:
No major complaints, here.

Round 8:
Trevor Cahill (91) – Doesn’t help in strikeouts, the lack of which also causes concern for ERA and WHIP.
Alexei Ramirez (96) – Best mid-round SS value.

Round 9:
Casey McGehee (106) – Getting 100 RBIs last year looks flukey. Also no longer 2B-eligible.
Roy Oswalt (105) – Oswalt or Cahill? I’m taking Oswalt.

Round 10:
Ian Stewart (113) – Batting average and playing time are concerns.
Mike Napoli (116) – Batting average and playing time are concerns, but that’s okay because he’s a catcher. In fact, I have Napoli and Stewart projected very similarly, but catcher eligibility makes Napoli a bargain in the 10th and Stewart a risk.

Creating a Fantasy Budget

13 Comments
March 8th, 2011 by
Categories: Auctions, Other Sites

Two great articles showed up recently on how to create a budget at a fantasy baseball auction. The first is by one of my favorites, Todd Zola at Mastersball:

Tiers are the key to this means of budget allocation. What you need to do is always make sure that there is available inventory to fill your open lines. Tiers are the easiest manner to do this. If you have a $20 spot and you note the inventory of players you expect to go in that range is dwindling, you need to make a purchase soon or distribute that $20 line to other lines that better match up with the remaining player pool. This is the biggest mistake made in auctions and it has nothing to do with your ability to evaluate and rank players. Having too much money left to buy the available talent is not the recipe for success. For me, tiers are an invaluable tool to track if I am properly budgeted to best acquire the available players.

Todd’s approach is to bring to the auction a list of 14 target dollar values for hitters and 9 values for pitchers. For example, you know you want a $35 hitter and two at $30. During the draft, you adjust the values as needed: If you overspend at one position, you have to drop the targets somewhere else. If you get a bargain, you can increase your remaining targets.

You also bring to the fantasy auction player tiers that correspond to your targets: $35 hitters, $30, $25, and so on. You watch these tiers to make sure you are able to get the kinds of players you are targeting. As Todd mentions in the excerpt above, as the players in a tier run out, you need to make sure you get one of the remaining ones or reallocate the targeted cash.

The other article comes from Advanced Fantasy Baseball, which makes the price targets specific to each position:

We should probably spend big on a 1B, maybe $25, since they normally produce big power numbers and are easier to replace than are some other positions. We should also consider spending a good bit at 3B, since they can also give you good power numbers. (Some people worry that 3B is a scarce position, but we’ll examine that idea a little later.) In the middle infield, I’ll typically allocate less money per position, maybe $15 each for the 2B and SS. Let’s say $5 for the CI and $5 for the MI.

Here, I don’t know if I can support budgeting to this extent. If you allocate $25 to a 1B, aren’t you ruling out Pujols at $40 and Billy Butler at $10 from the very start? I would be okay with Butler as my primary 1B, assuming I spend the money elsewhere (perhaps shoring up my infield with a top SS and 2B).

I find myself more comfortable with Todd’s approach that (for example) targets a $30 hitter and a $20 hitter, regardless of position. Then, if I get a $14 bargain, I reallocate the $6 I saved on my $20 target to increase other targets. That’s a an approach that provides a structured plan to the draft but is still flexible enough to deal with auction dynamics.

Having said that, both of these articles are great, in-depth reading that can apply to any fantasy auction situation.

Bold Prediction: Dan Hudson’s ERA Goes Up in 2011

2 Comments
March 4th, 2011 by
Categories: Other Sites, Sleepers

This year, I’ve discovered the wonder that is fantasy baseball podcasts, thanks mostly to having an MP3 player that lets me listen to them while driving.

I caught an interesting argument on a recent CBSSports podcast regarding Diamondbacks pitcher Dan Hudson:

Al Melchior: Hudson actually is somebody I’m not as high on for this year. Long term I like the guy. But [he] had some very odd looking numbers last year — very, very low BABIP, also very, very low HR/FB ratio, which is a very dangerous thing for a guy who gives up a lot of flyballs and pitches in a homerun ballpark. So I think the ERA is going to go up. Actually the ERA and the WHIP I think will go up this year. I think he could disappoint in 2011.

Yes, you heard it here first: Dan Hudson will not repeat his 1.69 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. The ERA and the WHIP “will go up this year.” Those of you expecting him to be a $55 player as he dominates the league in those categories can prepare for disappointment.

Actually, I’m pretty sure no one is expecting Hudson to maintain the rates he had last year with Arizona. So, while Al’s argument is technically accurate, it is also pointless. Of course his ERA and WHIP will go up.

The real question is: Can Hudson maintain enough ERA/WHIP to still be a valuable fantasy player in 2011? Obviously, he doesn’t have to have a sub-2.00 ERA to be a very good pitcher this year. His ERA can go up and he can still be a breakout pitcher this year — those aren’t mutually exclusive.

A few points to consider when answering that question:

Hudson has a very good minor league pedigree and track record. He’s a 5th rounder who shot up from A ball to AAA in 2009, posting solid numbers at all four levels.

Hudson gets the benefit of pitching in the NL West. We would expect some natural improvement to occur as a pitcher moves from AL to NL, although not as much as Hudson showed last year going from CWS to ARI. He’s pitching his home games in a bit of a hitters park, but he’s also getting opportunities in SF and SD pitcher parks and is facing weaker lineups than in the AL.

Hudson has shown an excellent strikeout rate. He posted 7.9 K/9 last year, and he was above 10 K/9 in the minors. Strikeouts are valuable in fantasy, and pitchers with lots of Ks also tend to have good ERAs and WHIPs.

So let’s put that all together: Projections are designed to estimate how much a player typically regresses after posting an extraordinarily good (or bad) season. They often take into account things like an unusual BABIP or HR/FB rate. So here’s what the projections think Hudson can do this year:

Marcel: 3.12 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
CAIRO: 3.47 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
ZiPS:3.56 ERA, 1.23 WHIP

Let’s say all of those are still too optimistic, and Hudson’s really closer to a 3.70 ERA, 1.25 WHIP. That’s still a top 25 pitcher. And if he’s a top 25 pitcher he’s a bargain at where he’s being drafted right now.

Point League Price Guide

19 Comments
March 1st, 2011 by
Categories: Site News

I’m trying out something new today: A version of the Price Guide for Points Leagues.

Basically, instead of checking boxes for the stat categories your league uses, you enter a point value for each stat. Values can be positive or negative and can include decimals. The Price Guide then totals everyone’s projected points, applies a positional adjustment, and then converts to dollar values.

I can’t find any sort of standardized setup for points leagues, so I know the default is pretty atypical (judging by the excessive love of catchers). If you know what values are normal for a points league, please let me know.

And if you notice any problems with or have any suggestions for the new version, feel free to email or comment below.

MLB.com Fantasy 411′s Composite Projections

28 Comments
February 25th, 2011 by
Categories: Other Sites, Projections

In case you didn’t notice, Cory Schwartz at MLB.com Fantasy 411 recently posted a spreadsheet with a huge mass of projections:

This year I was able to compile projections from 15 – that’s right, fifteen! — different sources, and there’s still one more system I’d like to incorporate into in a future update. However, this spreadsheet only includes players who were included in at least eight or more of the 15 different projection systems, and who are currently on an MLB roster (including spring NRI’s).

It’s in a format that is pretty easy if you want to upload it to the Price Guide to see what kinds of rankings it gives. Actually, you can already try it out on the Price Guide.

Late-Round Closing Possibilities

3 Comments
February 21st, 2011 by
Categories: Saves, Sleepers

Since the projections here typically don’t attempt to project saves (or, like Marcel, do a poor job of it by giving Rafael Soriano 25 saves), I have found myself coming up with some numbers on my own in order to provide fantasy value. That’s pretty easy for 20 or so teams, where the closer is pretty well locked in, but there’s always a few teams where projecting saves is a mess.

While I was working on some comments regarding the messy closing situations, I noticed Yahoo’s Andy Behrens recently did a run-through of ninth-inning possibilities. It’s a good read, and I by-and-large agree with his assessments. I will add these musings on the worst of the situations (where the biggest potential bargains can be found):

Atlanta Braves
Early indicators are that RHP Craig Kimbrel and LHP Jonny Venters will be sharing duties, letting the Braves play the R/L matchups. Venters did great last year in the bullpen, so CAIRO has him projected very highly. Kimbrel also projects to be very good, and as the RHP part of the committee he should be the primary beneficiary of saves. I think Kimbrel has a great shot of being a steal this year and being an elite closing option in 2012.

Baltimore Orioles
Another duo is available in Baltimore, where the closing duties should fall to either Kevin Gregg or Koji Uehara. I’m not crazy about either one: I think Gregg will get the first shot, but I think Uehara is the better pitcher. I’d rather have either of the Atlanta boys rather than take a chance on these two. I don’t see much upside in this situation to compensate for the risk.

Tampa Bay Rays
If you want to see a mess at closer, check out Tampa Bay. There is no one that shows up on MockDraftCentral’s ADP report for the top 400 players. I have no faith in Kyle Farnsworth and his hard, straight fastball. Jake McGee and the currently-injured J.P. Howell are lefties that sometimes get mentioned as options. However, I’m currently liking Joel Peralta as a sneaky guy to win the job and notch 20-30 saves. He had a really good season last year in Washington, and he wouldn’t be the first journeyman to figure things out in his 30′s and put together a few solid seasons.

Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto has filled their bullpen with one-time closers Frank Francisco, Octavio Dotel, Jon Rauch, and Jason Frasor. I think most people have settled on Francisco as the best bet for saves, although MDC still has Dotel slightly above him. Frank is also a great guy to target in Yahoo drafts where he is currently buried in the rankings.

I’ll throw one other name out that looks like a great draft-day bargain: Matt Thornton. I’ve got Thornton ranked in the Papelbon-Feliz range of very-good but not quite elite. I’ve been expecting the White Sox to bring someone else in, but it’s looking more and more like Thornton’s the guy. And if he is, then I have faith that he will be very good.

Is Tsuyoshi Nishioka a SS Sleeper?

3 Comments
February 17th, 2011 by
Categories: Projections, Sleepers

Tim Dierkes at RotoAuthority made a great catch earlier this week by noticing that Japanese import Tsuyoshi Nishioka will be fantasy-eligible at both SS and 2B in Yahoo this year. Obviously, with the lack of depth at SS, that makes him a great guy to keep an eye on in Yahoo drafts.

Tim also makes a bold prediction by ranking Nishioka as his #11 middle infielder — about a $14 value. That seems optimistic, but it counters well the excessive pessimism on Nishioka everywhere else: Yahoo has him as the #38 MI. MockDraftCentral has him being drafted as the #42 MI. That basically means he’s going undrafted in a lot of mixed leagues, where 36 MI (or less) are starting.

People talk about him being an unknown because he’s played in Japan. I don’t see it, though: We actually know a good deal about what happens to NPB players who come to MLB, because there are plenty of players who have made the switch (in either direction). No projection is made with absolute certainty, but I don’t think NPB projections are any less certain than are other rookie projections.

The Price Guide provides the temperate choice: Nishioka is currently valued at $3 — the #28 middle infielder. He seems like a good bet for 20 SB and a decent BA, with tons of upside in both categories. (He hit .346 last year in NPB.) With his skillset, he’s also a great target for the Sweeney Plan — it’s not surprising he ended up on my example Sweeney team in a snake draft.

Why You Know Cano Isn’t a First Rounder

3 Comments
February 16th, 2011 by
Categories: Projections

I was listening to ESPN’s latest Fantasy Focus podcast, where Nate Ravitz brings up this question regarding their own rankings (about the 11:30 mark):

Would you rather have Robinson Cano in the 1st round or Dustin Pedroia in the 3rd round?

Both Nate and co-host Matthew Berry agreed that Pedroia is a better value in the 3rd round than Cano is in the 1st. And, for what it’s worth, I happen to agree. Here’s the thing, though: If you are finding “value” in your own rankings, you are doing your rankings wrong.

If you are ranking fantasy players, the goal is to rank everyone where they are worth. There cannot be an overpriced player. If there is, then you need to lower your ranking for him. There also cannot be a player who is a bargain where he is ranked. If there is, then you need to raise your ranking for him.

The ESPN guys provide solid logic for their reasoning for preferring a 3rd round Pedroia: Cano was great last year, but it would be difficult for him to improve on that season. That makes sense: Typically the first round is reserved for players who have been consistent top producers. However, neither one was confident enough in Cano to prefer him to taking Pedroia later. And yet neither one would back off from ranking him in the first round.

Like I said above: If you are finding favorably ranked guys in your own rankings, you need to make some adjustments. Either Cano needs to be dropped some or Pedroia needs to be raised (or both) until you are satisfied that they offer equivalent values for their draft position.

In this case, I think the Price Guide’s projections are tremendously more realistic: Cano is the top-ranked 2B, but he’s a mid-to-late second rounder in ESPN leagues. That’s just below consistent top-performers like Holliday, Crawford, and Teixeira. And it’s basically where the ESPN guys would seem to rank him if they listened to their intuition and were unafraid to make a challenge to ADP.

CAIRO Update

13 Comments
February 10th, 2011 by
Categories: Projections

This afternoon, I added the latest version of the CAIRO projections, v0.6. It’s good to see the problems with Josh Johnson, Brett Anderson, and Jose Valverde have been fixed, and the projections for all three have taken huge steps toward their expected fantasy value.

Can These Sweeney Plan Teams Win?

17 Comments
February 10th, 2011 by
Categories: Strategy, Sweeney Plan

So I’ve spent the past couple of days talking about the Sweeney Plan — a fantasy draft strategy for punting power (HR and RBI) and trying to win all of the other categories. It’s a pretty extreme strategy, and I’m a little skeptical of how well it can actually work in practice.

With that in mind, I’ve tried to assemble a couple of realistic sample teams that I think could be put together in a typical fantasy auction or draft.

Sweeney Plan Auction Team
First, I’ll try a possible auction team that implements the Sweeney Plan. I used fantasy dollar values from a recent CBS mock auction in constructing this team. Obviously, these prices would change somewhat if I were actually in this league, drafting this team. But the Sweeney Plan is flexible enough that I think I’d be able to find equivalent players at prices I like.

C Russell Martin $5
C Jorge Posada $2
1B James Loney $1
2B Brian Roberts $5
SS Derek Jeter $11
3B Michael Young $9
OF Carl Crawford $43
OF Ichiro Suzuki $27
OF Brett Gardner $12
OF Juan Pierre $6
OF Denard Span $2
CI Placido Polanco $1
MI Chone Figgins $2
Util Rajai Davis $1
 
SP Cliff Lee $31
SP Zack Greinke $27
SP CC Sabathia $25
SP Shaun Marcum $5
SP Hiroki Kuroda $3
SP Ted Lilly $2
RP Joakim Soria $16
RP Carlos Marmol $12
RP Francisco Cordero $6

I’ve got strong pitchers, with 3 top SP and 2 top RP, plus a few others who I think could be bargains.

My offense is focused on AVG, R, and SB, so I targeted guys who help me in those categories without adding extra cost for HR and RBI (which are worthless for my team). Crawford and Ichiro are my big names, and I fill my OF with cheap fantasy speedsters. The rest of the offense are mostly AVG contributors who will also steal a few bases.

Sweeney Plan Draft Team
To assemble a possible draft team, I looked at MockDraftCentral’s ADPs and selected one player who could be available in each round. This should be a very conservative team; I think a better team would be available in real life. Here’s the round-by-round strategy:

1 Carl Crawford (OF)
2 Ichiro Suzuki (OF)

Crawford and Ichiro are the obvious choices with the first two picks. These are your offensive anchors to give you a solid start in all three of AVG, R, and SB. Ichiro is a reach in the 2nd, but, remember, I’m being very conservative in my estimation. For the 2nd round, I restricted myself to guys with an ADP above 24. If you thought you could get Ichiro in the 3rd, you could possibly take Halladay or Felix in the 2nd.

3 CC Sabathia (SP)
4 Zack Greinke (SP)
5 Mariano Rivera (RP)
6 Michael Young (3B)
7 Heath Bell (RP)
8 Wandy Rodriguez (SP)

With two speedsters in your first picks, it’s time to load up on quality pitchers in the middle rounds. I’m targeting at least a couple high-end SP and a couple of elite RP. Michael Young helps out my AVG, and drafting him in the middle of so many pitchers maybe keeps other teams from realizing my plan.

9 Michael Bourn (OF)
10 Juan Pierre (OF)
11 Rafael Furcal (SS)
12 Jorge Posada (C)
13 Hiroki Kuroda (SP)
14 Denard Span (OF)
15 Jonathan Broxton (RP)
16 Jaime Garcia (SP)
17 Ted Lilly (SP)
18 Rajai Davis (OF)

The mid-late rounds are crucial for the Sweeney Plan. In Rounds 9-18, grab as many fast OF as you can: Bourn, Pierre, Span, Davis. Interspersed with them, you can grab some SP and RP that have slipped through the cracks, as well as hitters at some tough to fill, non-OF positions.

19 James Loney (1B)
20 Placido Polanco (3B)
21 Russell Martin (C)
22 Tsuyoshi Nishioka (2B)
23 Alcides Escobar (SS)

The end-game is where you fill in the rest of your positions. Nobody here is make-or-break; I’m just trying to find starters.

Here’s is what the draft team lineup looks like:

C Russell Martin 21
C Jorge Posada 12
1B James Loney 19
2B Tsuyoshi Nishioka 22
SS Rafael Furcal 11
3B Michael Young 6
OF Carl Crawford 1
OF Ichiro Suzuki 2
OF Michael Bourn 9
OF Denard Span 14
OF Rajai Davis 18
CI Placido Polanco 20
MI Alcides Escobar 23
Util Juan Pierre 10
 
SP CC Sabathia 3
SP Zack Greinke 4
SP Jaime Garcia 16
SP Wandy Rodriguez 8
SP Hiroki Kuroda 13
SP Ted Lilly 17
RP Mariano Rivera 5
RP Heath Bell 7
RP Jonathan Broxton 15

So what do you think, can these teams win?

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