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Attempting the Sweeney Plan in 2011

3 Comments
February 9th, 2011 by
Categories: Strategy, Sweeney Plan

Yesterday I posted an article that described a draft strategy from 1991 — an attempt to punt HR and RBI. It’s an interesting strategy, but can the Sweeney Plan work in today’s game?

Obviously, both the real game and the fantasy game have changed over the past twenty years, and these differences require some adjustments to the plan:

1. The Rise and Fall of Power – In the AL in the early nineties, Sweeney could expect to win SB with just a couple of key players. The AL was a power league, and SB threats were few and far between. Stolen bases have made a bit of a comeback after the power-packed nineties and aughts. Now, there are guys in either league who could top 50 SB.

2. Mixed Leagues – Most fantasy leagues today are mixed leagues, with NL- and AL-only leagues largely becoming relics of the past. This is good news for the Sweeney Plan. Punting power means you are working with a restricted player pool. In an only league, the plan is dependent on getting a few key players. But a mixed league gives you options, and you aren’t ruined if you miss out on any one player.

3. 5×5 – Punting offense or pitching worked okay in 4×4, but 5×5 adds an extra counting stat that makes it difficult to get away with only starting 6 hitters like Sweeney did. However, punting 2 of 10 categories (20%) could be a slightly less risky proposition than punting 2 of 8 (25%).

These factors lead me to believe that the Sweeney Plan is still feasible today, with a couple of tweaks:

Draft a full roster of hitters.
Just like Sweeney, you need to draft a couple of top-tier anchors for your offense. Carl Crawford and Ichiro Suzuki are the two guys who excel in AVG, R, and SB who seem to be must-haves.

But part of Sweeney’s downfall was his reliance on too few hitters. In 2011, I think you fill out the rest of your lineup with bargain bin guys who can rack up steals or give you an empty batting average: Denard Span (175), Rajai Davis (219), Nyjer Morgan (301), Chris Coghlan (337), Russell Martin (250), Placido Polanco (244), James Loney (236). Especially in today’s 5×5 environment, you are going to have to have a full roster of hitters in order to be competitive in runs.

In a straight draft, you can also fill in some hitters from the mid-rounds — Juan Pierre (131), Michael Young (78), etc. However, if you can grab Crawford and Ichiro early, the middle rounds are the time to focus on pitchers.

Trade off excess for power
The obvious disadvantage of punting two categories is that your upside in the standings is very limited. So my second strategy tweak is to plan on trading some of your surplus midseason.

The great thing about trading is that you control how the standings will change. You only trade in categories where your lead is big enough you won’t lose ground. You only trade to teams that cannot pass you in the standings. You make sure your trades will negatively affect your biggest competition.

If you can get 4-6 points in HR/RBI instead of 2, you will have a little extra buffer on your lead, or you may be able to edge out another team threatening 100 points.

Tomorrow, I’ll unveil one possible Sweeney team created at an auction and another from a serpentine draft. I’ll let you judge how realistic it would be for these teams to be competitive.

The Twentieth Anniversary of the Sweeney Plan

1 Comment
February 8th, 2011 by
Categories: Strategy, Sweeney Plan

Twenty years ago, in the spring of 1991, a guy name Hugh Sweeney tried a fantasy baseball strategy that sounds completely crazy — something so crazy no one had tried it before and few have attempted since. And for Sweeney, it was a strategy that almost worked.

The story of Sweeney’s attempt was preserved by Alex Patton in the 1992 edition of his annual fantasy book, Patton’s Player Profiles. Ask Rotoman has the full article, titled The Collapse of Russia available in PDF:

I want you to see what a no-brainer they had going for them; how bad luck and, yes, serious [mess]-ups were all that stopped Sweeney once he had devised his plan.

The plan was, quite obviously, to win in six categories, come in last in two. Had Sweeney succeeded in doing that, he would have had 74 points. He was counting on no team coming out of the auction in great shape; he figured all these old goats would punch themselves silly, and he was right. Seventy-four points would have won.

Sweeney’s simple plan was to punt HR and RBI. In a 4×4 league, he spent big on pitching and then grabbed a few hitters who could add steals and batting average.

I encourage you to read all of Alex’s essay, including his round-by-round post-mortem of the fateful auction. (I realize there’s usually nothing worse than reading about someone else’s draft, but this one is worth it.)

In the next few posts I’ll unveil a modern-day Sweeney Plan to see if it is at all feasible in today’s draft environment, twenty years after it was first attempted.

Learning from 2010 Draft Results

1 Comment
February 4th, 2011 by
Categories: Other Sites

Rudy at Razzball crunches the numbers on a set of 21 fantasy drafts from 2010, to see how winning teams managed their success:

The top players for 2010 were:

  1. Paul Konerko – 61.9% Top 3 Finish (Median=2nd)
  2. Dan Uggla – 61.9% (Median=3rd)
  3. John Axford – 57.1% (Median=3rd, Avg=3.7)
  4. Buster Posey – 57.1% (Median=3rd, Avg=4.2)
  5. Carlos Gonzalez – 57.1% (Median=3rd, Avg=4.4)
  6. Chris Perez – 52.9% (Median=3rd, Avg=4.8)
  7. Raul Ibanez – 52.4% (Median=3rd, Avg=4.4)
  8. Robinson Cano – 52.4% (Median=3rd, Avg 4.7)
  9. Rickie Weeks – 47.6% (Median=4th, Avg 4.9)
  10. Neftali Feliz – 47.6% (Median=4th, Avg 5.0)

I think this stuff is great. I’d love to sift through some of the data that he posted to see if any other trends emerged.

2011 Marcels are Up

12 Comments
February 3rd, 2011 by
Categories: Projections

You can now find the 2011 Marcels on the Price Guide.

The Marcels are a baseline projection system — there are no minor league stats, no park adjustments, no league adjustments. It projects its own saves (I project them for everyone else), and it doesn’t know that Rafael Soriano signed with the Yankees or that Trevor Hoffman retired. So it’s not as sophisticated as the other projections, but it gives a good starting point.

But what’s the deal with the love of catchers? The Price Guide always seems to rank catchers highly, but Mauer #2?

Drafting a Catcher in 2011

4 Comments
February 1st, 2011 by
Categories: Strategy

I posted last week about some fantasy draft strategies for acquiring a shortstop this year, and I thought I would post some similar thoughts for another position. Let’s try catcher.

When developing a catcher draft strategy, the crucial thing to keep in mind is whether your fantasy league starts 1 or 2 catchers. Starting two catchers requires a disproportionate amount of digging at the position (which is probably why the big public leagues have tended to go with just one, instead). It also causes a huge jump in catcher values to compensate for the much lower replacement level. My strategy is highly dependent on how the league is set up.

Roll the Dice
In 1-catcher leagues especially, I am very tempted to roll the dice on catcher this year — it just seems like there are lots of intriguing options available. J.P. Arencibia is a top prospect who looks to have a clear path to the majors with John Buck out of Toronto. Chris Iannetta shared time with Miguel Olivo last year, but looks to see significant time for Colorado. It was not long ago that Russell Martin was an elite option at catcher. Even with Jesus Montero looming, Martin could be poised for a bounceback with a change of scenery. All of those guys have ADPs outside the top 300, which means their upside comes at a great, low price.

Another great thing about targeting these guys is that you don’t have to put all your eggs in one basket. With some reserves spots, you can easily carry an extra catcher. Assuming they are coming cheap, why not take two of these guys? I’ll let other teams take the safe end-game commodities — Kurt Suzuki, Yadier Molina, A.J. Pierzynski. Give me two cheap guys with actual upside, and I think I can strike it rich on at least one of them.

Victor Martinez — An Undervalued Top-Tier Option?
I’m willing to take on some risk for one catcher spot, but I hesitate to fill two spots with question marks (maybe because I drafted Jeff Clement and J.R. Towles in too many leagues last year…). For a two-catcher league, I kind of like to have a consistent producer sitting in one of those spots.

So where is the sweet spot for high-end catchers? While all I’ve got so far is CAIRO, I’m not seeing a huge difference in the projections between Joe Mauer and Victor Martinez at the top of the catcher ranks. Mauer looks to have the better BA, but Martinez tops him in power. I think either one could easily be the top catcher in 2011.

With that in mind, one possible strategy is to pass on Mauer. Let your league set the price on him, and that should set the ceiling for Martinez’s price. Obviously, you’re hoping Martinez comes a good deal cheaper, but I’d still be willing to pay up to the same price as Mauer.

In a 1-catcher league, however, I have a hard time paying for a top-tier option. Especially with the sleepers above, there seem to be plenty of value plays that make more sense than forking out $25+ for Mauer or Martinez. So much of your catcher’s value is coming from his positional eligibility that there seems to be a lot of flux in the rankings each year.

Don’t Count Out Jorge Posada
Despite the best of plans, Drafts never go exactly as expected. While I’d love to get Victor this year, I never want to be completely set on getting one particular player that I have to overpay. I need a backup plan in case things don’t work out the way I thought they would.

So who else is interesting at catcher? Comparing the Price Guide rankings to MockDraftCentral’s ADP, I’m surprised at how closely the catcher rankings correspond. The only significant departure I see is what to do with Jorge Posada… The Price Guide has him at #7 among catchers, and ADP puts him as the 10th best.

I’m guessing age is the biggest reason fantasy drafters are avoiding Posada. Even with two other intriguing catching options on the Yankees (Martin and Montero), I don’t see playing time being an issue, assuming he gets plenty of time to DH. The DHing could even be a big positive, as he could have even fewer days off than when he was catching. Plus, staying off the field cuts down on his chances for injury.

All of that to say, there doesn’t seem to be a huge gap in projections between Posada and, say, Brian McCann. The pricetag for Posada seems a lot better, though. Pair him with one of the gambles mentioned above if you want an injury Plan B.

That gives me a solid top-tier target (Martinez), a mid-tier option (Posada), and several late-round gambles with plenty of upside.

Drafting a Shortstop in 2011

5 Comments
January 27th, 2011 by
Categories: Strategy

It seems that everyone has acknowledged that, as in 2010, shortstop is going to be a difficult position to fill in 2011. I see a couple basic strategies to deal with this year’s dearth:

Overpay for Hanley or Tulowitzki
Here’s the thing: You are going to have to overpay if you want a good shortstop this year. That is just a fact of life. Out of the top 12 fantasy shortstops ranked by the Price Guide, 11 are ranked higher by MockDraftCentral’s ADP. (I’ll deal with the lone exception, next.) That means that fantasy drafters are not wanting to take their chances with a low-end SS, and they’ll pay to make sure it doesn’t happen.

What is interesting is that the SS premium seems consistent. That is, you’ll probably have to overpay by about the same amount (maybe $5-$8) to get Hanley or to get Jeter. If I’m going to have to pay extra no matter what, I’m going to do it for one of the first round guys — Hanley Ramirez or Troy Tulowitzki.

Draft Alexei Ramirez
I mentioned there is only one player that the Price Guide ranks higher than their ADP, and that player is Alexei Ramirez In a mixed league, Ramirez is projected to be almost perfectly average in every single category — .275 AVG, 80 RBI, 80 R, 20 HR, and 10 SB. That’s pretty much what he’s done in each of his three years in the U.S., so it seems like a very reasonable line.

For whatever reason, though, fantasy players are anti-Alexei this year. (Maybe because he’s so…average.) And that means he might be the only SS you can get at (or below) his projected price. He doesn’t look like the kind of guy who will carry your team, but he seems like a safe pick to earn his keep while contributing in all five categories.

Take a Gamble with Escobar, Hardy, Peralta, or Bartlett
So let’s say you not only miss out on a top-tier SS, but you’re also drafting with a White Sox fan who won’t let you get Alexei on the cheap. Now what?

The end game of a draft is always a great time to fill holes, since everyone’s player values have diverged quite a bit by that point, and many teams are no longer competing against you for players. Four guys the Price Guide likes more than ADP are Yunel Escobar, J.J. Hardy, Jhonny Peralta, and Jason Bartlett. The common theme I see there are guys who have shown skill in the past, but have lost a bit of their luster lately. In 2009, Bartlett finished as a $19 player and Escobar at $12. The year before, Peralta was at $18 and Hardy at $12.

Now, I don’t expect all of those guys to bounce back in 2011, but I think at least one will. I’m most worried about Bartlett, since he’s got to deal with hitting in Petco. Peralta’s success in 2008 came batting cleanup for the Indians, which is unlikely to happen in Detroit. The only thing hindering Hardy is his health, which is something I’m usually willing to risk. I’m also willing to overlook a down year for Escobar, since he had two solid years preceding it.

So if I can get Escobar and Hardy for a couple of bucks apiece, I figure I have a good shot of at least one SS worth starting.

One Last Thing
One final thing to keep in mind in an auction: I mentioned that it looks like people will be overpaying for mid-tier SS. This gives a great opportunity to bleed out some cash from other owners on guys you have no chance of drafting. The best name I see for that is Jimmy Rollins. People see him as a power-speed guy who can put up 20 HR and 30 SB, but that’s a lot less valuable if he’s batting .250 (which he has the past two years). He’s old. He’s been injured. Bring him up at the auction and let the rest bid what they wish.

Elvis Andrus has the same batting average problem as Rollins, and has no power either. He’s valuable for the R and SB contributions he’ll make, but probably not as valuable as your league thinks. He’s young, so I’m hesitant to write him off, but you won’t be drafting him if you use the Price Guide. Nominate Andrus and get some cash out of the other owners’ pockets.

CBS Fantasy Baseball Mock Drafts and Draft Kits

No Comments
January 26th, 2011 by
Categories: Other Sites

Just noticed that CBS has fired up their fantasy baseball leagues for 2011… That means they also have their mock drafts and auctions up.

I don’t remember seeing this last year, but they have also created Fantasy Baseball Draft Kits — 100 page PDFs of cheatsheets, position eligibility lists, and fantasy player summaries. (They also claim “Draft-Day Strategies,” but I didn’t see any of those.) It looks like standard fantasy magazine fare, but non-splashy (and free).

Paying for Saves

6 Comments
January 26th, 2011 by
Categories: Other Sites, Strategy

I enjoyed reading a post by Dave Chenok today on The Hardball Times about why a save is not a save:

The experts are missing something pretty fundamental: a save is not a save.

Why not? The key concept here is so simple that it amazes me it gets consistently ignored: Closers contribute to scoring categories besides saves. ERA. WHIP. Ks. Joe Borowski may well get as many saves as Mo one year, but Joe is probably going to hurt you, relative to Mo, in all the other scoring categories. “Oh,” I hear the experts saying, “but that is silly. Closers don’t pitch enough innings to impact those categories meaningfully. Solid starters will more than make up for any ERA or WHIP effect you get from having Joe versus Mo.”

The problem is: It isn’t true. It’s like saying that eating a chocolate bar each day won’t affect your weight, because you eat a lot of other food, and it’s only one little chocolate bar. Right.

He’s absolutely right to notice that RP contribute in more fantasy categories than just S. It’s why the Price Guide ranks Joakim Soria ($13) so much higher than Francisco Cordero ($6). Despite projected save totals in the upper 30s for both of them, Soria just contributes more to ERA, WHIP, and K.

However, I think Dave skips over this criticism too lightly:

“But wait,” I can hear the experts croaking. “If you used early round picks for closers, you can’t possibly have had enough hitting—you must have sacrificed points there.” Well it’s hard to model what I didn’t do, but… assuming you use the first four rounds of your draft on strong hitters at weaker positions, there are generally enough corner infielders and outfielders left in rounds 8-12 to build a very solid overall hitting lineup. You can have your cake and eat it too.

This, I think, is a valid criticism. If I spend $13 on Soria and $6 on Raul Ibanez, the Price Guide thinks I’ll end up with essentially the same quality team as if I spend $6 on Cordero and $12 on Delmon Young. The extra hitting vs. the extra pitching should be a wash.

I think Dave’s strategy only works (i.e. gives an advantage rather than being value neutral) if teams don’t understand the idea of positional replacement levels, allowing you to fill MI early and OF/CI late. Otherwise, you are just reallocating hitting value to pitching value, and overall your team doesn’t change.

When you eat your cake, it’s gone.

Planning Picks after the First Round

3 Comments
January 24th, 2011 by
Categories: Fantasy Basics, Strategy

In serpentine drafts, it is always important to be thinking ahead about future picks whenever you are making a selection. You don’t want to end up passing over the best available name just because you’ve already filled his position. With that in mind, I’ve got a couple of basic draft strategies prepared, depending on what happens with my first round pick:

Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, or Adrian Gonzalez
Taking a slugging 1B in the first round will cost you an easy-to-fill position, but it is still worth it for the stats and consistency. The second pick should be easy: All of the other top-tier 1B will be gone by the second round, and you can fill any position. I wouldn’t mind a top pitcher (e.g. Felix Hernandez or Roy Halladay, if he’s available) so that I start off with studs at hitting and pitching. This team will need speed eventually, though, but that might have to come from late-round sources like Nyjer Morgan and Coco Crisp.

Hanley Ramirez or Troy Tulowitzki
Congratulations, you’ve solved one of the biggest fantasy problems this year: drafting a shortstop. As with the 1B above, I’d still be willing to draft a SP with my 2nd rounder, or grab a guy like Matt Holliday if he’s still available. With a key skill position filled first, you can bulk up your offense with a corner slugger (Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds, Carlos Pena) later in the draft.

Ryan Braun, Carl Crawford, or Carlos Gonzalez
These all seem to be great options in the middle of the first round, even though ADP has them a little lower than the Price Guide. The Price Guide values them in the first half of the round; ADP tends to put them near the end. That means I’d love to have the 10th-12th pick, where I can hopefully grab whichever of the three is still available.

Your second rounder could be Alex Rodriguez, Ryan Howard, or Mark Teixeira, which would put your offense on a good pace for the draft. You’ll need to fill in pitching on the cheap, and I would target sneaky-good pitchers like Roy Oswalt, Ted Lilly, and Shaun Marcum later in the draft.

Joe Mauer
Getting a catcher in round 1 works in two-catcher leagues, but definitely don’t do it if there’s only 1 catcher per team. (I’d grab a sleeper catcher like Chris Iannetta or J.P. Arencibia late, in that scenario.) You’ve filled a tough position early, but Mauer’s raw stats are a step below the other first rounders. Target the best available player over the next couple of rounds — whatever 1B or OF slip through the cracks of your league.

What about taking 3B Evan Longoria or David Wright in the first round? Or 2B Robinson Cano? They all have a first round ADP, but the Price Guide thinks they are closer to second rounders. I’m going for someone with more consistency with my 1st pick, which means I’ll be filling 2B and 3B in the middle rounds, instead.

The key to planning picks is knowing each player’s value and their ADP. Even if Mauer is worth a first round pick, I’d much rather have Victor Martinez in the third round and use my first rounder on another position. Martinez is valued by the Price Guide just $4 below Mauer, so I think it’s worth taking a chance and waiting.

Core Four Drafting

3 Comments
January 21st, 2011 by
Categories: Other Sites, Strategy

Here’s a post I found from a couple of days ago — USA Today‘s Steve Gardner suggests a drafting strategy that he calls Cour Four drafting:

In most basic fantasy setups — and we’ll take 5×5 leagues as the standard — there’s a premium placed on certain stats.

  • Home runs, because each one helps a fantasy team in not only homers, but batting average, runs and RBI as well. (Of the majors’ top 23 home run hitters in 2010 — top 20 and ties — 20 of them scored more than 80 runs and 18 of them had 100 or more RBI.)
  • Hits, because each one not only helps in batting average, but gives a player an opportunity to steal a base and score a run. (Of the majors’ top 20 players in hits in 2010, 17 of them more than 80 runs and 14 also had averages above .300.)
  • Stolen bases, because they count on their own and they put a player in better position to score a run. (Of the majors’ top 26 in stolen bases, 18 of them scored 80 or more runs.)
  • And for pitchers, strikeouts, because they keep a batter from reaching base, which in turn benefits their ERA and WHIP and puts them in better position to get a win. (Of the majors’ top 25 in strikeouts, 18 of them ranked in the top 25 in 5×5 Roto dollar value.)

With that in mind, Steve suggests targeting home runs, hits, stolen bases, and strikeouts in the fantasy draft. However, there’s no detail (yet) on how to implement the strategy, which I think will be the real key to judging its value.

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