SubscribeYesterday, I went through the results of how last year’s LIMA pitchers did relative to expectations. (In case you aren’t familiar with it, LIMA is a strategy for drafting bargain starting pitchers with good strikeout, walk, and homeruns rates. Getting cheap — but potentially very good — pitching lets you focus most of your draft attention on loading up on hitting.)
On the whole, the LIMA pitchers did extremely well. Players like Felix Hernandez, Jon Lester, and Matt Cain took a huge step forward to become elite pitchers. Guys like Jonathan Sanchez and and Randy Wolf went from marginal to good. And, of course, a couple of guys (like Joba Chamberlain and Gil Meche) flopped completely.
So what did we learn from the whole thing? Here are a few lessons that I took from these results:
LIMA isn’t dead, yet.
As I’m re-reading my thoughts from last year, it’s clear that I was skeptical of the value of LIMA in the 21st century. LIMA originated in a world of 4×4 fantasy leagues, and today’s 5×5 dominated fantasy scene already appreciates high-strikeout pitchers. LIMA doesn’t know about BABIP or GB/FB rates that can also be indicators of future success. Projections are designed to consider strikeout, walk, and homerun rates and so the elements of LIMA should already be present in the dollar values.
But how do you explain two-thirds of LIMA pitchers outperforming their projections? Now, 12 out of 17 isn’t a great sample size, but that does seem to be a tangible effect. These pitchers went from a $4 average value in 2008 to an $11 value in 2009 (higher even than the $7 average projection).
A strategy that can identify a class of pitchers that will beat their projections by an average of $4 is a winning strategy. The overperformance of these starters certainly makes me inclined to continue bidding even past the projected dollar amount on similar pitchers in 2010.
Watch out for players on the border.
After a couple of years of striking out around 5 batters per nine, Paul Maholm edged into the LIMA qualifications for 2009 with a K/9 of just over 6 in the previous year. Of the players I looked at, he had the lowest strikeout rate and was in the bottom half for K/BB and HR/9.
In 2009, he promptly returned to his 5 K/9 ways. Hindsight tells us that Maholm was really the mediocre pitcher we saw in 2006-2008 and not the one who snuck into the LIMA qualifications in 2009. Apparently borderline LIMA players are not the best bets for success.
Of course, removing the bottom tier of LIMA qualifiers might have also dumped Wainwright (6.20 K/9) and Garza (6.23 K/9), both of whom improved in 2009, so this rule doesn’t work every time.
Watch out for players switching roles.
In 2008, Joba Chamberlain topped all of the LIMA categories, leading LIMA-inventor Ron Shandler to peg Joba as the #1 pitcher for 2009. The projections loved him as well, expecting him to double his value from the year before.
However, far from being the best fantasy pitcher of 2009, Chamberlain ended up in negative territory. What happened?
Most of the decline may have just been injuries or simple bad luck. But Joba’s failure also serves as a reminder that pitching relief is easier than starting and facing the same lineup multiple times a night. A RP who has LIMA skills may not be a LIMA starter.
We’ll keep those lessons in mind as we look at who fits the LIMA strategy for 2010.
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