Last Player Picked

Yesterday, I started going through who I like and don’t like at their current ADPs, looking at Rounds 1-10. Most of these are come just from comparing composite projections here on the Price Guide to MockDraftCentral’s ADP, but there are a few where I’m disagreeing with both.

Round 11:
Brandon Morrow (126) – I like the K’s, but he hasn’t shown he can get his ERA under 4.00, yet.
Daniel Hudson (130) – I’ve already talked about why I think he’s a bargain. Obviously, he can’t maintain a sub-2.00 ERA, but he’s a steal at his current position if he can even put up a 3.70 ERA.

Round 12:
Ricky Romero (136) – He’s Brandon Morrow without the K’s. There are plenty of better pitchers still available.
Mike Stanton (140) – Great power upside should at least put him in the top 100.

Round 13:
Alex Gonzalez (148) – I like the old Braves SS (Yunel Escobar) better, and he comes about 170 picks later.
Jorge Posada (149) – He’s not dead yet. I think he’ll get plenty of ABs at DH.

Round 14:
Chris Perez (158) – Looked good in half a season, but I’m not sold, yet.
Drew Stubbs (157) – Power/speed combo that is mysteriously undervalued. What’s the difference between him and Ian Stewart four rounds earlier? The only one I see is that Stubbs can also steal 30 bases.

Round 15:
James Shields (172) – Like most people, I expect him to bounce back from last year’s 5.18 ERA/1.39 WHIP campaign. However, his ERA wasn’t great in 2009 either (4.14), so I’m concerned about him getting back in the 3.00′s.
Hiroki Kuroda (175) – The K’s aren’t overly impressive, but they aren’t terrible either. The Price Guide sees him as basically equal to Yovani Gallardo (trade some K’s for WHIP), but Gallardo is being drafted 100 picks earlier.

Round 16:
No complaints.

Round 17:
Marco Scutaro (193) – I’m thinking Lowrie gets at least 400 AB this year, and Scutaro is going to be the playing time victim. If he has the same stats as in the past but loses 200 AB, Scutaro drops off the mixed league radar.
Ted Lilly (195) – I’ve got him projected to basically be Chad Billingsley with a better WHIP (3.60 ERA, 1.25 WHIP). Billingsley is going 84th overall.

Round 18:
Jon Niese (209) – Is there reason to expect him to improve on last year’s 4.20 ERA?
Matt Thornton (206) – Dominance against lefties and righties makes him the obvious choice for the closer’s job. I think he ends the year as a top-tier closer.

Round 19:
Derek Holland (226) – Good K/9 points to upside, but I think the risk is greater.
Jose Tabata (224) – I think there’s a bit of Pirate-ignorance among baseball fans. Tabata looks very similar to me to Shane Victorino (ADP 145) — .280 with 10 HR and 30 SB. I also like Neil Walker (277).

Round 20:
Fernando Rodney (230) – A scary closer.
Rajai Davis (236) – Can steal 50 bags and score plenty of runs at the top of the Toronto lineup.

Round 21:
Matt Capps (250) – If I’m grabbing a closer in waiting, I’d much rather have Joaquin Benoit (ND), Daniel Bard (304), or Luke Gregerson (386). Not only do I think they have a better shot of saves this year, I think they are just better pitchers than Capps.
Angel Pagan (242) – Breakout 2010 gives Pagan playing time for 2011. He looks like a well-rounded late-rounder.

A few other names with large gaps between ADP and the composite projections:

Joe Nathan (217)
Chris Iannetta (268)
Neil Walker (277)
Tsuyoshi Nishioka (281)
J.P. Arencibia (310)
Yunel Escobar (321)
Chris Coghlan (331)
Dallas Braden (364)

Looking through the composite projections, let’s try to find some guys who look to be over- or underpriced based on their current fantasy ADP. I’ll see if I can find one guy in each category for each round (ADP in parenthesis):

Round 1:
Evan Longoria (5) – Longoria has never put up 1st round numbers, and I’m not betting my first round pick on upside. I’ve already written about Longoria being overrated.
Ryan Braun (9) – A 5-category contributor like Braun shouldn’t be hanging around the second half of the first round. He’s a great building block to get your team established in every category.

Round 2:
Matt Kemp (24) – I’m not really down on Kemp, I just think he’s a better choice in the 3rd round. I think the second round actually looks pretty good.
Matt Holliday (23) – Like Braun, Holliday is a consistent, 5-category performer.

Round 3:
Ichiro Suzuki (32) – I can get steals and average much later. Ichiro is a fun and unique player in real life but perennially overrated in fantasy.
Cliff Lee (36) – Looks great back in the NL with lots of win opportunities.

Round 4:
Jimmy Rollins (40) – Aging skills make him a liability in average, and he doesn’t have the power and speed he used to. Shortstop scarcity is no excuse.
Zack Greinke (47) – As with Lee, I like pitchers moving to good NL teams. The injury doesn’t scare me and could let him come even cheaper.

Round 5:
Mariano Rivera (59) – The Price Guide puts him as the top closer as well, but he scares me more than Wilson (74), Bell (80), or Soria (67).

Round 6:
Elvis Andrus (68) – Has steals but no power or average. I like the balanced Alexei Ramirez (96) much better.
Josh Johnson (72) – I can’t imagine taking David Price (61) or Yovani Gallardo (63) ahead of Johnson. Gallardo hasn’t shown he can help in WHIP, and Price’s wins are hard to predict.

Round 7:
No major complaints, here.

Round 8:
Trevor Cahill (91) – Doesn’t help in strikeouts, the lack of which also causes concern for ERA and WHIP.
Alexei Ramirez (96) – Best mid-round SS value.

Round 9:
Casey McGehee (106) – Getting 100 RBIs last year looks flukey. Also no longer 2B-eligible.
Roy Oswalt (105) – Oswalt or Cahill? I’m taking Oswalt.

Round 10:
Ian Stewart (113) – Batting average and playing time are concerns.
Mike Napoli (116) – Batting average and playing time are concerns, but that’s okay because he’s a catcher. In fact, I have Napoli and Stewart projected very similarly, but catcher eligibility makes Napoli a bargain in the 10th and Stewart a risk.