Last Player Picked

So far this year, we’ve examined how LIMA pitchers did in 2009 and looked at 2010’s LIMA candidates. Last week, we broke down the first grouping for 2010, LIMA pitchers who might not necessarily be low investments.

The next group of 2010’s LIMA candidates are pitchers who are primed to bounce back from a down year in 2009: Roy Oswalt, Chad Billingsley, Jake Peavy, and John Lackey.

Here are their ERAs in 2009:

Roy Oswalt 4.12
Chad Billingsley 4.03
Jake Peavy 3.45 (102 IP)
John Lackey 3.83

Fantasy owners tend to have short memories, focusing mostly on a question of “What have you done for me lately?” If people in your league focus only on 2009, these four pitchers may be available for cheap.

In contrast to your typical fantasy owner, projections recognize that players who have an abnormally good or bad year tend to regress back to their established level of performance. That gives some reason for optimism for these pitchers. There’s still risk:

Roy Oswalt is getting old, and his strikeout rate has never been dominant. The 2010 Astros are shaping up as a terrible offensive team that could struggle to get him wins.

Chad Billingsley walks a lot of guys. With a consistent 1.30+ WHIP, the 4.03 ERA of 2009 seems more appropriate than the 3.14 ERA from 2008.

Jake Peavy is leaving the favorable PETCO Park in San Diego where he had put up ERAs in the 2.00’s for several years. He will spend 2010 in a much less-favorable park for the White Sox. Plus, he managed a 4.09 ERA stinker even with the Padres.

John Lackey is now two years removed from the excellent 3.01 ERA year he had in 2007, posting a 3.75 and 3.83 in the past two years. He also moves to a very tough AL East.

No doubt, there’s risk involved with all four of these pitchers. With strong peripheral stats, however, there’s also the possibility of a big payoff in 2010.

As we look at 2010’s LIMA candidates, let’s start off by looking at some guys who meet the statistical LIMA qualifications, but probably miss the “low investment” requirement. They were good enough last year that they aren’t going to come cheap. However, there’s still room for them to take another step forward in 2010, much like LIMA-qualifiers Felix Hernandez and Matt Cain did in 2009.

The pitchers in this group for 2010 are:

Josh Johnson
Jair Jurrjens
Wandy Rodriguez
Clayton Kershaw
Tommy Hanson

With the LIMA strategy, you’re obviously going to be passing on the big names (Halladay, Sabathia, Greinke, etc.) so that you can use that money for hitting. But maybe you can still target one of these guys as your staff ace. You can get similar production as you would from the household names in the top-tier, but at a bit better price.

With this tier of LIMA pitchers, there’s both good news and bad news. The good news: All of them were very good in 2009, although Hanson’s limited innings pitched capped his value a bit. The bad news: They are all projected for significant decline in 2010.

While I know the math behind the projections is — on the whole — solid, I can’t help but feel that these pitchers are being underestimated a little. Take a look at the projected ERA’s compared to last year:

2009 Actual ERA
Josh Johnson 3.23
Jair Jurrjens 2.60
Wandy Rodriguez 3.02
Clayton Kershaw 2.79
Tommy Hanson 2.89
Average 2.91

2010 Projected ERA
Josh Johnson 3.47
Jair Jurrjens 3.71
Wandy Rodriguez 3.74
Clayton Kershaw 3.65
Tommy Hanson 4.17
Average 3.74

Does that seem a little pessimistic to anyone else? They are projected to give up the same number of earned runs in 2010 as in 2009 (300) while pitching 200 fewer innings, and the result is an average ERA jump from 2.91 to 3.74!

One good sign for their future is that adding ZiPS would make these projections all a little brighter — across the board increases in IP and a significant improvement in ERA for Hanson, Kershaw, and Jurrjens. Based on last year’s results where the projections tended to miss the improvements made by LIMA pitchers, I’m going to err on the optimistic side this year.

So, no, I’m not going to stop bidding on Tommy Hanson at $5.

Last year, I highlighted 17 pitchers who showed signs of becoming very good pitchers in 2009: They struck guys out and limited the walks and homeruns. Despite these indicators of success, they were still priced cheaply enough to provide a good fantasy return on investment.

As we saw last week, 12 of those 17 pitchers improved on their 2008 marks in 2009. Felix Hernandez, Adam Wainwright, Matt Cain, Randy Wolf, and Jon Lester surged to greatness. Even players who the projections panned (John Danks, Wandy Rodriguez, Jorge De La Rosa) made a fantasy impact in 2009.

So let’s try the same thing for 2010. If 2009 is any guide, these are players whose skills may be a better indicator of future fantasy success than the projections on the Price Guide.

We’ll first eliminate the top tier of pitchers who meet the LIMA qualifications — LIMA is about building a cheap staff and Roy Halladay and Zack Greinke aren’t coming cheap. It’s interesting that several names from last year’s list (the aforementioned Hernandez, Wainwright, Lester, and Cain) have graduated into the top fantasy tier.

We’re left with the following 18 pitchers with K/BB >= 2, K/9 >= 6, HR/9 <= 1, and IP >= 100 in 2009:

Very Good and Probably Not Cheap
Josh Johnson
Jair Jurrjens
Wandy Rodriguez
Clayton Kershaw
Tommy Hanson

Known Commodities Off a Down Year
Roy Oswalt
Chad Billingsley
Jake Peavy
John Lackey

True LIMA Pitchers
Gavin Floyd
Ryan Dempster
Kevin Correia
Hiroki Kuroda
Jeff Niemann

Colorado Rockies
Ubaldo Jimenez
Jorge De La Rosa
Jose Contreras
Jason Hammel

(That’s right, the Colorado Rockies get their own tier of LIMA pitchers. Despite solid peripheral stats, the projections uniformly hate them all, presumably because of their home ballpark. Of course, the projections already missed once on De La Rosa last year, so take that how you will.)

We’ll break down those categories one at a time throughout the coming week.

A quick LIMA story: In 2006, I was really excited about the possibilities for Doug Davis. After some early career struggles, he had put up two solid seasons. His peripheral stats made him an excellent LIMA target — a pitcher ready to breakout in 2006.

I drafted Doug Davis in most of my leagues that year. I was rewarded with an amazing 4.91 ERA and 1.51 WHIP over 203 IP — not exactly the breakout season I was expecting.

The moral of the story: A pitcher who meets the LIMA qualifications is not guaranteed to succeed.

Matt Garza (2008: $7; 2009: $8)
Adam Wainwright (2008: $10; 2009: $9)
I’ll cover Garza and Wainwright together, since their situations seem similar: The projections temper the expected gains for these two young pitchers with a bit of regression in BABIP, which was pretty low for both of them in 2008. The net result is a projected dollar value pretty close to what they put up last year.

The strikeout rate for either pitcher isn’t really as high as you would like in 5×5, and that’s the main thing holding them back from the middle-tier of pitching.

Randy Wolf (2008: $0; 2009: -$2)
The last time Randy Wolf managed an ERA below 4.00? 2002. Not surprisingly, the projections don’t expect an improvement in 2009.

Gil Meche (2008: $6; 2009: $5)
Gil Meche is similar to Wolf, in that there is plenty of data for the projections to use when predicting performance, and so their 2009 values aren’t too far off from last year’s. Meche is a solid pitcher who could be even better, but it’s hard to forecast a breakout after eight seasons in MLB.

Paul Maholm (2008: $4; 2009: $1)
The strikes against Maholm are the same as Garza and Wainwright: Expect the BABIP to regress in 2009. The strikeout rate is not good enough for 5×5. Then throw in a new factor: Maholm stunk in his other two full seasons in the majors (2006 and 2007).

Jorge de la Rosa (2008: -$4; 2009: -$7)
In 2005-2006, Byung-Hyun Kim put up peripheral stats that were pretty close to LIMA-esque, and yet still managed to give up an extraordinary amount of hits (WHIPs over 1.50). Jorge de la Rosa — another Colorado pitcher — looks to fit that same profile.

Wandy Rodriguez (2008: $6; 2009: $2)
Like Lester and Danks, the projections are harsh on Wandy for pitching poorly before 2008. However, his surprisingly good campaign last year was not a result of getting lucky, but came as a result of solid pitching (increasing strikeouts, decreasing walks). Were those improvements for real?

If you think so, you could push the bidding for Wandy into double-digits. The projections are more skeptical of a pitcher who before 2008 had a career 5.17 ERA in 447 IP.

Last week we looked at pitchers who fit the LIMA qualifications but may still carry a high pricetag based on high expectations for 2009. Today, we’ll look at some of the true LIMA pitchers — guys who are borderline draftable who could turn a positive value.

Jonathan Sanchez (2008: -$6; 2009: $3)
Sanchez’s 5.01 ERA in 2008 masked some pretty solid peripheral stats. He struck out 157 in 158 IP for a K/9 of 8.94. That was good for 7th among SP and behind only Harden, Lincecum, Kazmir, Volquez, Burnett, and Billingsley.

The projections indicate that Sanchez could realistically cut the ERA down to a 4.24. That isn’t amazingly useful in a mixed league, but, combined with the strikeouts, it would be worth drafting. Sanchez’s projection is similar to what is projected for Clayton Kershaw, minus all of the hype.

Kevin Millwood (2008: -$14; 2009: -$4)
Like Jonathan Sanchez, Millwood managed an era over 5.00 last year, despite doing a lot of things well. The biggest difference in the two for 2009 is the 20 year gap in age between them.

Even if Millwood sees the same improvements as Sanchez, he’s still below replacement level. I can see taking a flyer in an AL-only league, but it seems like there’s limited upside, here.

Andy Pettitte (2008: -$3; 2009: $2)
Pettitte has put up three straight years of ERAs above 4.00 and WHIPs above 1.40. At his age, there’s no reason to expect any improvement from those marks in 2009. (Although the same thing might have been said about fellow-Yankee Mike Mussina last year, and Mussina managed to end his career on a high note.)

So what does that tell us? Those three are the only pitchers who:

1) Meet the LIMA qualifications
2) Come cheap
3) Are projected to improve by more than a $1.

I’d be willing to take a chance on Jonathan Sanchez, but my enthusiasm for Millwood and Pettitte is limited, despite their projected improvements.

Later this week I’ll examine the last group of LIMA pitchers: Those who are cheap but who are still not projected to do better in 2009 than in 2008.

The second group of LIMA pitchers that I want to look at are guys who meet the LIMA qualifications, but aren’t necessarily cheap enough to fit with the LIMA plan. They are widely regarded as good pitchers, but various problems in 2008 may depress their value. These flaws include wins (Cain and Hernandez), ERA (Beckett and Burnett), or IP (Chamberlain).

Matt Cain (2008: $2; 2009: $18)
Despite garnering only 8 wins last year, Cain was still a very good pitcher. Assuming his luck turns around in 2009, he could find himself back in the upper-middle class of pitchers with John Lackey, Derek Lowe, and Scott Kazmir.

For all of the people marking down 20 wins for Tim Lincecum: If Lincecum can get wins on the Giants, why can’t Cain? The Giants look to have improved in 2009, especially in the bullpen. The composite projections put Matt Cain down for 12 wins next year and a $16 gain in value from 2008.

Josh Beckett (2008: $10; 2009: $22)
Beckett’s ERAs in even years: 4.10, 3.79, 5.01, 4.03
Beckett’s ERAs in odd years: 1.50, 3.04, 3.38, 3.27

Do I think it means anything for 2009? Not really. However, it does indicate that he hasn’t been the most consistent pitcher the last few years.

It does look like he pitched better last year than his 4.00 ERA would indicate. Of course, enough people will remember his good years that I don’t really expect Beckett to be that big of a bargain. The Price Guide thinks he can improve on his 2008 by $12.

Felix Hernandez (2008: $4; 2009: $16)
Like Cain, Felix Hernandez’s low value last year came from poor run support (9 wins) and a high WHIP (1.39). The WHIP has always been a problem for him, but there’s no reason to expect him to only manage single-digit wins in 2009.

People forget it because Felix has already pitched three full seasons, but he only turns 23 years old this year. Even if this isn’t the year he puts everything together, it looks like he could be close to a $20 player.

A.J. Burnett (2008: $9; 2009: $19)

One of my favorite LIMA-related quotes, courtesy of Trace Wood in 2002:

LIMA misses emerging stars like AJ Burnett, Matt Clement, Ramon Ortiz – hardthrowers who could dominate the game for much of the next decade – because it focuses on walk rates.

In hindsight, I find that to be pretty funny. Burnett ended up increasing his K/BB to become a consistent LIMA target and a quality major league pitcher. Clement and Ortiz didn’t quite manage the dominant careers that Trace predicted, although admittedly the issue wasn’t their walk rates: Clement couldn’t stay healthy, and Ortiz couldn’t strike enough people out while allowing way too many homeruns. But I digress.

Like fellow former-Marlin Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett managed an ERA north of 4.00 in 2008, despite both of them striking out around one batter per inning. Although Burnett has never managed a spectacular ERA, his value goes up quite a bit even if he can only get the 3.82 that is projected.

People like to bring up the Pitching for the Yankees = More Wins theory, but Burnett managed 18 wins last year for a decent Toronto team. I wouldn’t bump up his value any by expecting that number to increase in 2009.

Joba Chamberlain (2008: $8; 2009: $17)
Joba is a little different from the rest of the pitchers in this group. Everyone else experienced a down 2008 after putting up better numbers in previous years. Chamberlain’s only weakness in 2008 was his limited IP, as he only accumulating 100 IP between starting and relieving.

Expectations of an increased workload as a fulltime starter send Chamberlain’s value climbing. Just don’t expect the market to discount him: Shandler’s projections make Joba the #1 fantasy pitcher for 2009, and there are plenty of others hyping him as well.

In the first part of my look at LIMA, I grouped the pitchers who met the qualifications based on what was projected for them in 2009. There were two pitchers in the group who were projected for a significant decline — John Danks and Jon Lester. If LIMA is supposed to identify pitchers who are about to break out, then what’s going on with these two?

The Price Guide valued both Danks and Lester at about $13 last year in a standard league. For 2009, the composite projections here put them at $2 and $1, respectively! The opinion is unanimous: CHONE, CAIRO, and ZiPs all see Danks and Lester adding at least one run to their ERAs.

So what’s going on with these two players? Looking at the usual suspects — such as BABIP — doesn’t reveal anything out of the ordinary. As LIMA points out, both of them had solid peripherals. They were both top prospects coming up through the minors, so their success in 2008 wasn’t completely surprising.

So why do the projections hate these guys? I think the answer is simple: Track record.

Both of these pitchers were fantastic in 2008, but there was nothing impressive about their major league careers before that. Danks managed a 5.50 ERA in 139 IP in 2007. Lester had pitched 144 innings at a 4.68 ERA up to that point in his career. While it’s possible that their future performance will mirror what they did in 2008, it’s also possible that it reverts closer to what they had done in the past.

Admittedly, the projections are ignorant of some changes in skill that can result in a true rise in performance level. If a pitcher improves aftern learning a new pitch (as was the case for both Danks and Lester), the projections won’t acknowledge that the player’s history isn’t necessarily indicative of his current abilities.

So I’m not personally convinced by the projections regarding these two pitchers. However, the pessimistic forecasts do give me enough pause that I don’t see myself going into double-digits for these players, and that probably ensures that Danks and Lester won’t land on any of my teams.