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LIMA, Part II (Danks and Lester)

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March 12th, 2009 by Mays
Categories: LIMA, Sleepers

In the first part of my look at LIMA, I grouped the pitchers who met the qualifications based on what was projected for them in 2009. There were two pitchers in the group who were projected for a significant decline — John Danks and Jon Lester. If LIMA is supposed to identify pitchers who are about to break out, then what’s going on with these two?

The Price Guide valued both Danks and Lester at about $13 last year in a standard league. For 2009, the composite projections here put them at $2 and $1, respectively! The opinion is unanimous: CHONE, CAIRO, and ZiPs all see Danks and Lester adding at least one run to their ERAs.

So what’s going on with these two players? Looking at the usual suspects — such as BABIP — doesn’t reveal anything out of the ordinary. As LIMA points out, both of them had solid peripherals. They were both top prospects coming up through the minors, so their success in 2008 wasn’t completely surprising.

So why do the projections hate these guys? I think the answer is simple: Track record.

Both of these pitchers were fantastic in 2008, but there was nothing impressive about their major league careers before that. Danks managed a 5.50 ERA in 139 IP in 2007. Lester had pitched 144 innings at a 4.68 ERA up to that point in his career. While it’s possible that their future performance will mirror what they did in 2008, it’s also possible that it reverts closer to what they had done in the past.

Admittedly, the projections are ignorant of some changes in skill that can result in a true rise in performance level. If a pitcher improves aftern learning a new pitch (as was the case for both Danks and Lester), the projections won’t acknowledge that the player’s history isn’t necessarily indicative of his current abilities.

So I’m not personally convinced by the projections regarding these two pitchers. However, the pessimistic forecasts do give me enough pause that I don’t see myself going into double-digits for these players, and that probably ensures that Danks and Lester won’t land on any of my teams.

Low Investment Mound Aces, Part I

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March 11th, 2009 by Mays
Categories: LIMA, Strategy

Over a decade ago, Ron Shandler introduced a strategy he called the LIMA Plan (Low Investment Mound Aces). The idea is simple — focus most of your money at the auction on acquiring top hitters and closers. Then add in a few cheap starters with strong peripheral stats. Specifically, look for:

K/BB above 2.0
K/9 above 6.0
HR/9 below 1.0

It’s a strategy that has continued to be suggested over the years, but does it really work? Here are a couple of things to keep in mind:

More fantasy owners are aware of peripheral stats.
The fantasy game has changed since 1998, and one of the biggest changes has been the merger of statistical baseball analysis with fantasy baseball analysis. Ron Shandler himself has been one of the pioneers in this area as a whole statistical toolbox for evaluating players for fantasy has been added.

Fantasy players are more aware of some of the signs that a pitcher is ready to break out. Don’t expect the price on those players to fit with a “low investment” strategy.

5×5 leagues raise the price on LIMA starters
Shandler originally suggested the LIMA plan for 4×4 leagues — leagues that only count W, S, ERA, and WHIP. In a 4×4 league, owners aren’t necessarily concerned with the number of strikeouts a pitcher gets.

In 5×5, owners are already focused on high-strikeout pitchers so that they can compete in that category. With two of the three LIMA skills (K/9 and K/BB) affected by strikeouts, players that meet the qualifications will probably be highly valued by other owners, regardless of strategy. And that means you’ll have a hard time finding cheap starters that meet the qualifications.

Strikeouts, walks and homeruns are only part of the equation.
It is certainly valuable to look at how well a pitcher does at striking out batters, avoiding free passes, and preventing the long ball. However, those things aren’t the only indicators of future success.

More and more people are seeing the importance of also looking at how a pitcher does on balls that are put into play. Did a pitcher allow a high batting average on balls in play (BABIP) that is likely to drop this year? Is he able to induce hitters to hit groundballs? These other factors need to also be examined when looking for pitcher success.

With those caveats in place, I find the following pitchers who fit the LIMA qualifications for 2009. I’ve grouped them based on their dollar values in past years and what is projected for them this year:

Already Good, Could Be Great
Josh Beckett
Matt Cain
A.J. Burnett
Joba Chamberlain
Felix Hernandez

True LIMA Pitchers Projected to Improve
Jonathan Sanchez
Kevin Millwood
Andy Pettitte

LIMA Pitchers with No Projected Improvement
Adam Wainwright
Matt Garza
Gil Meche
Paul Maholm
Randy Wolf
Wandy Rodriguez
Jorge De La Rosa

LIMA Pitchers Projected to do Worse
Jon Lester
John Danks

We’ll continue this series by looking at each group in a little more detail.

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