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Creating a Fantasy Budget

13 Comments
March 8th, 2011 by
Categories: Auctions, Other Sites

Two great articles showed up recently on how to create a budget at a fantasy baseball auction. The first is by one of my favorites, Todd Zola at Mastersball:

Tiers are the key to this means of budget allocation. What you need to do is always make sure that there is available inventory to fill your open lines. Tiers are the easiest manner to do this. If you have a $20 spot and you note the inventory of players you expect to go in that range is dwindling, you need to make a purchase soon or distribute that $20 line to other lines that better match up with the remaining player pool. This is the biggest mistake made in auctions and it has nothing to do with your ability to evaluate and rank players. Having too much money left to buy the available talent is not the recipe for success. For me, tiers are an invaluable tool to track if I am properly budgeted to best acquire the available players.

Todd’s approach is to bring to the auction a list of 14 target dollar values for hitters and 9 values for pitchers. For example, you know you want a $35 hitter and two at $30. During the draft, you adjust the values as needed: If you overspend at one position, you have to drop the targets somewhere else. If you get a bargain, you can increase your remaining targets.

You also bring to the fantasy auction player tiers that correspond to your targets: $35 hitters, $30, $25, and so on. You watch these tiers to make sure you are able to get the kinds of players you are targeting. As Todd mentions in the excerpt above, as the players in a tier run out, you need to make sure you get one of the remaining ones or reallocate the targeted cash.

The other article comes from Advanced Fantasy Baseball, which makes the price targets specific to each position:

We should probably spend big on a 1B, maybe $25, since they normally produce big power numbers and are easier to replace than are some other positions. We should also consider spending a good bit at 3B, since they can also give you good power numbers. (Some people worry that 3B is a scarce position, but we’ll examine that idea a little later.) In the middle infield, I’ll typically allocate less money per position, maybe $15 each for the 2B and SS. Let’s say $5 for the CI and $5 for the MI.

Here, I don’t know if I can support budgeting to this extent. If you allocate $25 to a 1B, aren’t you ruling out Pujols at $40 and Billy Butler at $10 from the very start? I would be okay with Butler as my primary 1B, assuming I spend the money elsewhere (perhaps shoring up my infield with a top SS and 2B).

I find myself more comfortable with Todd’s approach that (for example) targets a $30 hitter and a $20 hitter, regardless of position. Then, if I get a $14 bargain, I reallocate the $6 I saved on my $20 target to increase other targets. That’s a an approach that provides a structured plan to the draft but is still flexible enough to deal with auction dynamics.

Having said that, both of these articles are great, in-depth reading that can apply to any fantasy auction situation.

Bold Prediction: Dan Hudson’s ERA Goes Up in 2011

2 Comments
March 4th, 2011 by
Categories: Other Sites, Sleepers

This year, I’ve discovered the wonder that is fantasy baseball podcasts, thanks mostly to having an MP3 player that lets me listen to them while driving.

I caught an interesting argument on a recent CBSSports podcast regarding Diamondbacks pitcher Dan Hudson:

Al Melchior: Hudson actually is somebody I’m not as high on for this year. Long term I like the guy. But [he] had some very odd looking numbers last year — very, very low BABIP, also very, very low HR/FB ratio, which is a very dangerous thing for a guy who gives up a lot of flyballs and pitches in a homerun ballpark. So I think the ERA is going to go up. Actually the ERA and the WHIP I think will go up this year. I think he could disappoint in 2011.

Yes, you heard it here first: Dan Hudson will not repeat his 1.69 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. The ERA and the WHIP “will go up this year.” Those of you expecting him to be a $55 player as he dominates the league in those categories can prepare for disappointment.

Actually, I’m pretty sure no one is expecting Hudson to maintain the rates he had last year with Arizona. So, while Al’s argument is technically accurate, it is also pointless. Of course his ERA and WHIP will go up.

The real question is: Can Hudson maintain enough ERA/WHIP to still be a valuable fantasy player in 2011? Obviously, he doesn’t have to have a sub-2.00 ERA to be a very good pitcher this year. His ERA can go up and he can still be a breakout pitcher this year — those aren’t mutually exclusive.

A few points to consider when answering that question:

Hudson has a very good minor league pedigree and track record. He’s a 5th rounder who shot up from A ball to AAA in 2009, posting solid numbers at all four levels.

Hudson gets the benefit of pitching in the NL West. We would expect some natural improvement to occur as a pitcher moves from AL to NL, although not as much as Hudson showed last year going from CWS to ARI. He’s pitching his home games in a bit of a hitters park, but he’s also getting opportunities in SF and SD pitcher parks and is facing weaker lineups than in the AL.

Hudson has shown an excellent strikeout rate. He posted 7.9 K/9 last year, and he was above 10 K/9 in the minors. Strikeouts are valuable in fantasy, and pitchers with lots of Ks also tend to have good ERAs and WHIPs.

So let’s put that all together: Projections are designed to estimate how much a player typically regresses after posting an extraordinarily good (or bad) season. They often take into account things like an unusual BABIP or HR/FB rate. So here’s what the projections think Hudson can do this year:

Marcel: 3.12 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
CAIRO: 3.47 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
ZiPS:3.56 ERA, 1.23 WHIP

Let’s say all of those are still too optimistic, and Hudson’s really closer to a 3.70 ERA, 1.25 WHIP. That’s still a top 25 pitcher. And if he’s a top 25 pitcher he’s a bargain at where he’s being drafted right now.

MLB.com Fantasy 411′s Composite Projections

28 Comments
February 25th, 2011 by
Categories: Other Sites, Projections

In case you didn’t notice, Cory Schwartz at MLB.com Fantasy 411 recently posted a spreadsheet with a huge mass of projections:

This year I was able to compile projections from 15 – that’s right, fifteen! — different sources, and there’s still one more system I’d like to incorporate into in a future update. However, this spreadsheet only includes players who were included in at least eight or more of the 15 different projection systems, and who are currently on an MLB roster (including spring NRI’s).

It’s in a format that is pretty easy if you want to upload it to the Price Guide to see what kinds of rankings it gives. Actually, you can already try it out on the Price Guide.

Learning from 2010 Draft Results

1 Comment
February 4th, 2011 by
Categories: Other Sites

Rudy at Razzball crunches the numbers on a set of 21 fantasy drafts from 2010, to see how winning teams managed their success:

The top players for 2010 were:

  1. Paul Konerko – 61.9% Top 3 Finish (Median=2nd)
  2. Dan Uggla – 61.9% (Median=3rd)
  3. John Axford – 57.1% (Median=3rd, Avg=3.7)
  4. Buster Posey – 57.1% (Median=3rd, Avg=4.2)
  5. Carlos Gonzalez – 57.1% (Median=3rd, Avg=4.4)
  6. Chris Perez – 52.9% (Median=3rd, Avg=4.8)
  7. Raul Ibanez – 52.4% (Median=3rd, Avg=4.4)
  8. Robinson Cano – 52.4% (Median=3rd, Avg 4.7)
  9. Rickie Weeks – 47.6% (Median=4th, Avg 4.9)
  10. Neftali Feliz – 47.6% (Median=4th, Avg 5.0)

I think this stuff is great. I’d love to sift through some of the data that he posted to see if any other trends emerged.

CBS Fantasy Baseball Mock Drafts and Draft Kits

No Comments
January 26th, 2011 by
Categories: Other Sites

Just noticed that CBS has fired up their fantasy baseball leagues for 2011… That means they also have their mock drafts and auctions up.

I don’t remember seeing this last year, but they have also created Fantasy Baseball Draft Kits — 100 page PDFs of cheatsheets, position eligibility lists, and fantasy player summaries. (They also claim “Draft-Day Strategies,” but I didn’t see any of those.) It looks like standard fantasy magazine fare, but non-splashy (and free).

Paying for Saves

6 Comments
January 26th, 2011 by
Categories: Other Sites, Strategy

I enjoyed reading a post by Dave Chenok today on The Hardball Times about why a save is not a save:

The experts are missing something pretty fundamental: a save is not a save.

Why not? The key concept here is so simple that it amazes me it gets consistently ignored: Closers contribute to scoring categories besides saves. ERA. WHIP. Ks. Joe Borowski may well get as many saves as Mo one year, but Joe is probably going to hurt you, relative to Mo, in all the other scoring categories. “Oh,” I hear the experts saying, “but that is silly. Closers don’t pitch enough innings to impact those categories meaningfully. Solid starters will more than make up for any ERA or WHIP effect you get from having Joe versus Mo.”

The problem is: It isn’t true. It’s like saying that eating a chocolate bar each day won’t affect your weight, because you eat a lot of other food, and it’s only one little chocolate bar. Right.

He’s absolutely right to notice that RP contribute in more fantasy categories than just S. It’s why the Price Guide ranks Joakim Soria ($13) so much higher than Francisco Cordero ($6). Despite projected save totals in the upper 30s for both of them, Soria just contributes more to ERA, WHIP, and K.

However, I think Dave skips over this criticism too lightly:

“But wait,” I can hear the experts croaking. “If you used early round picks for closers, you can’t possibly have had enough hitting—you must have sacrificed points there.” Well it’s hard to model what I didn’t do, but… assuming you use the first four rounds of your draft on strong hitters at weaker positions, there are generally enough corner infielders and outfielders left in rounds 8-12 to build a very solid overall hitting lineup. You can have your cake and eat it too.

This, I think, is a valid criticism. If I spend $13 on Soria and $6 on Raul Ibanez, the Price Guide thinks I’ll end up with essentially the same quality team as if I spend $6 on Cordero and $12 on Delmon Young. The extra hitting vs. the extra pitching should be a wash.

I think Dave’s strategy only works (i.e. gives an advantage rather than being value neutral) if teams don’t understand the idea of positional replacement levels, allowing you to fill MI early and OF/CI late. Otherwise, you are just reallocating hitting value to pitching value, and overall your team doesn’t change.

When you eat your cake, it’s gone.

Core Four Drafting

3 Comments
January 21st, 2011 by
Categories: Other Sites, Strategy

Here’s a post I found from a couple of days ago — USA Today‘s Steve Gardner suggests a drafting strategy that he calls Cour Four drafting:

In most basic fantasy setups — and we’ll take 5×5 leagues as the standard — there’s a premium placed on certain stats.

  • Home runs, because each one helps a fantasy team in not only homers, but batting average, runs and RBI as well. (Of the majors’ top 23 home run hitters in 2010 — top 20 and ties — 20 of them scored more than 80 runs and 18 of them had 100 or more RBI.)
  • Hits, because each one not only helps in batting average, but gives a player an opportunity to steal a base and score a run. (Of the majors’ top 20 players in hits in 2010, 17 of them more than 80 runs and 14 also had averages above .300.)
  • Stolen bases, because they count on their own and they put a player in better position to score a run. (Of the majors’ top 26 in stolen bases, 18 of them scored 80 or more runs.)
  • And for pitchers, strikeouts, because they keep a batter from reaching base, which in turn benefits their ERA and WHIP and puts them in better position to get a win. (Of the majors’ top 25 in strikeouts, 18 of them ranked in the top 25 in 5×5 Roto dollar value.)

With that in mind, Steve suggests targeting home runs, hits, stolen bases, and strikeouts in the fantasy draft. However, there’s no detail (yet) on how to implement the strategy, which I think will be the real key to judging its value.

The Hardball Times’ Hitter Sleepers

3 Comments
January 20th, 2011 by
Categories: Other Sites, Sleepers

Dave S. at The Hardball Times throws out 13 possible sleepers for fantasy in 2011:

These sleepers can come in all shapes and sizes. Promising rookies looking to make an immediate impact in their debut. Veterans attempting to come back from various injuries and ailments that may have derailed their previous season. Some players have found an expanded role with their club, increased playing time or even a better lineup slot. All of these factors can lead to a player being severely undervalued on draft day, and therefore a sleeper in my book.

I think that’s a pretty good definition of sleeper — which can mean different things to different people (and in different leagues). Of course, I also don’t agree with all of his choices, but that’s to be expected if he is looking for names that others aren’t valuing.

Dave names J.P. Arencibia, Russell Martin, Chris Iannetta, Ike Davis, Juan Miranda, Aaron Hill, Danny Espinosa, Jhonny Peralta, Chris Johnson, Edwin Encarnacion, Hunter Pence, Chris Young, and Ryan Raburn as his fantasy sleepers for 2011.

Is Evan Longoria Overrated?

7 Comments
January 17th, 2011 by
Categories: Other Sites

I’ve been looking through some 2011 fantasy rankings and comparing them with the Price Guide’s rankings with the CAIRO projections. One player I’m noticing consistent disagreement on is Evan Longoria.

Here are a few opinions on Longoria:

ESPN’s Early Top 250: #5

Razzball’s Top 10: #4

Imaginary Diamond’s Top 20: #4

Mock Draft Central ADP: #5

Everyone agrees that only Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, and Miguel Cabrera are better options for 2011. (MDC adds Troy Tulowitzki; ESPN adds Carl Crawford.) There appears to be basic agreement that Longoria is an elite option at third who should be off the board by the first half of the first round.

It is a little surprising, then, to see where the Price Guide values Longoria among fantasy hitters using the CAIRO projections:

2011 CAIRO: #24

Just for reference, here are his end-of-season ranks among fantasy hitters via the Price Guide the past two years:

2010: #22

2009: #22

So what gives? Even if #24 is a little low, it seems pretty much in line with what Longoria has shown he can do over his big league career. What is causing people to move him up so high, even in spite of his recent performances, which have been very good rather than elite? I have a couple of ideas as I try to figure out what people are thinking:

1. Youth – Longoria just turned 25, so he can still be expected to be improving as a player. (CAIRO should be factoring in aging curves, though…)

2. Pedigree – Longoria was an early-first-round pick (#3) in the 2006 draft. Even if his stats to-date haven’t been worthy of a first-round fantasy pick, his scouting profile suggests a high-ceiling that he has yet to reach.

3. Consistency – In 2009, Longoria ranked behind Mark Reynolds and Ryan Zimmerman at 3B. Last year, he was fourth behind Jose Bautista, Adrian Beltre, and David Wright. Longoria rises to the top for 2011 for being the only consistent top-tier 3B over the past couple years. (Can that launch him to the beginning of the first round, though?)

4. Skillset – In 2009, Longoria bashed 33 HR. In 2010, the power went down (22 HR), but that was balanced by gains in AVG and SB. Assuming Longoria is capable of all three skills, putting the three together would make him a top-tier player. (.300 AVG, 30 HR, 15 SB is basically a better Matt Holliday…)

5. Hot starts – In both of his two full seasons in the majors, Longoria has been terrific in April and May. Early in the season, he has frequently been the most valuable fantasy player according to the Price Guide. Maybe the prognosticators are remembering his early-season heroics too favorably. Or, they are seeing those months as closer to Longoria’s true talent, and are waiting for the season without a cool stretch in late summer.

I don’t know which of those reasons people are using to rank Longoria so favorably, or if it is some combination of them. But what is it I’m missing on Evan Longoria?

More Math from Mass

6 Comments
February 27th, 2010 by
Categories: Fantasy Basics, Other Sites, Theory

I wish I could resist the lure of AJ Mass’s ESPN.com articles, but I cannot.

Mass answers the question I’ve always been wondering: “What happens if you rank fantasy hitters using bizarre, illogical criteria?” His top 10 fantasy hitters:

1 Jacoby Ellsbury
2 Carl Crawford
3 Michael Bourn
4 Albert Pujols
5 Matt Kemp
6 Mark Reynolds
7 Ryan Braun
8 Ian Kinsler
9 Hanley Ramirez
10 Chone Figgins

Now there’s something unusual about that list, but I can’t quite put my finger on it… Mass has already expressed his love for Ellsbury, so I guess it’s not too surprising that he puts Carl Crawford #2 and Michael Bourn #3.

How did this happen? The secret is in the faulty starting assumption:

What we’ve done is very simple. We’ve taken the league-wide totals from last season to create a statistical universe for our players to inhabit. We determined the expected statistical output of the average player, assuming even distribution among the lineup spots. From this, we were able to extrapolate the relative value of each hit, each run scored and so on. In other words, since there were more home runs than stolen bases in 2009, by a ratio in the neighborhood of 7-to-4, the value of each stolen base was about seven-fourths that of a home run, matching the relative frequency of the event.

I’m pretty sure you want to use the totals from a typical fantasy league, not all of MLB. Using the pool of fantasy starters will either get you to SGP or standard scores, either of which should yield a pretty realistic result.

Using the pool of all MLB hitters is just going to give you a mess.

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