Archive for the ‘Price Guide’ Category

Pricing 2010’s Designated Hitters

No Comments
March 8th, 2010 by Mays
Categories: Price Guide, Projections

The Price Guide’s DH values for a standard league present a nice, halving pattern:

Vladimir Guerrero $20
David Ortiz $10
Hideki Matsui $5

I’ll admit, seeing an Andrew Jackson beside Vladimir Guerrero’s name surprised me a little. After a horrific 2009 (valued at $1 according to the Price Guide), I had tempered my expectations.

And apparently I wasn’t alone: Just to compare a couple of other sources, Fantasy Ball Junkie calculates the average auction price for Vlad as $8. Tim Dierkes values him at $9. Yahoo also suggests $9, but the Yahoo mock-auctioners are bidding an even more cautious $5.

In reality, when Vlad played last year, he played great. He hit for average and for power, he walked plenty, and even nabbed a couple of bases. His skills aren’t diminished, he just couldn’t get healthy. If we assume a healthy 2010 as the Rangers’ DH, he should be a lot closer to his 2008 ($25) than 2009. And that would make Guerrero a great bargain for 2010.

David Ortiz’s fall from grace is a little more worrisome. Whereas Guerrero was still batting around .300 in his down 2009 year, Ortiz couldn’t top .240 (after hitting .264 the year before). I don’t know if Ortiz is done or not as fantasy contributor, but I think the risk is much higher for him than for Guerrero. (Interestingly, Dierkes puts Ortiz at $8, just one buck below Guerrero. The Price Guide thinks there’s a much wider gap.) One redeeming feature for Ortiz is that he at least qualifies at 1B in leagues that requires 6 GS or fewer (like Yahoo).

Just like there’s an unquantifiable bonus for qualifying at multiple positions, there’s also a monetary penalty for a player who locks up your utility spot. I’d say that fantasy drafters take that into account when they are bidding, potentially to the tune of $2-3 below the true value.

Which brings us to Hideki Matsui. Matsui never had the power that the other two guys had, and that means he’s a notch below both of them. He’s valued at $5, and the DH inflexibility takes off a little of that value. Honestly, I think I’d rather have a slightly inferior hitter who can play a position and who doesn’t have as much age/injury risk. Even somebody like Mark Teahen (3B,OF) — valued at -$2 — seems like a more attractive option to me than Matsui.

What is the Price Guide?

12 Comments
March 6th, 2010 by Mays
Categories: Fantasy Basics, Price Guide

The Price Guide is a free, online tool that gives you fantasy dollar values or fantasy rankings, customized for your league.

Here are some of the things it lets you do:

Customize Player Values for Your League
In fantasy baseball today, there’s no such thing as a standard league — your specific league settings can drastically alter the fantasy values of players. So why do so many fantasy sites and magazines only give a one-size-fits-all ranking of players?

Some Price Guide Categories

The Price Guide adjusts player values to the particulars of your league. So if you’re in an 8-team, NL-only league with standard categories or a 14-team league that adds OBP and holds, the Price Guide delivers values that are customized to those exact specifications. The Price Guide can be configured to handle literally millions of unique leagues.

Wonder how the Price Guide works? The details of its inner workings are all spelled out on the site, so there’s no proprietary secret or black-box to the methodology. There’s nothing about the Price Guide that you shouldn’t be able to recreate on your own.

Edit the Projections
While the Price Guide projections are already great, what happens if you disagree with the projected stats for a player? With the Price Guide, you can easily tweak any player’s stats and the values for all players will be automatically recalculated.

Editing a Player's Projection

So let’s say you come across a prospect who is initially slated for 10 HR and 10 SB, but you think he can get 20 of each. Enter new values on the Price Guide, and you’ll not only see his value jump, but you will also see a slight revaluation of everyone else as the number of available HR and SB increases.

Enter Keepers
If your league let’s you keep players, you know that they can have a dramatic effect on draft-day prices. With the Price Guide, as you enter keeper prices, you can watch the inflation rate raise the values of the remaining players.

Keepers

Upload Your Own Projections
If you ever encounter a situation where you want to change a large number of players’ values, the Price Guide also lets you upload your own projections into the system. All you have to do is put the stats in a simple Excel format and upload them to the site. You can upload as many sets as your want, so you are free to continually adjust your projections throughout the spring.

Uploading Projections

Add Values to Your League Website
Using a Firefox add-on called Greasemonkey, you can even add Price Guide dollar values to your league website. Get a leg-up on the competition with this handy tool to help you evaluate free agent pickups and trade opportunities.

Adding Dollar Values to a Yahoo League

The dollar values work with Yahoo, ESPN, CBS, and Allstar Stats leagues. As on the Price Guide site, the values are customized for your exact league settings, and the year-to-date values update daily throughout the season.

Interested yet? Everything is completely free, so why don’t you try it out?

Predicting Playing Time

6 Comments
February 25th, 2010 by Mays
Categories: Price Guide, Projections

Not too long ago I posted a link to an evaluation of how various projection systems did in 2009. My takeaway from that article was that the ideal fantasy projections would combine the free, computer-generated forecasts with a by-hand adjustment for playing time.

How might that be done? My first choice for predicting playing time would be Tom Tango’s Community Forecasts, where he recruits large numbers of fans to predict the playing time for players on their favorite team. Unfortunately, when that survey is opened up in late March, it will be too late for lots of fantasy drafters.

So I’ve attempted a different approach in the meantime. I started with the average playing time that resulted when SG simulated 100 seasons using the CAIRO projections. I then made some manual adjustments based on my own guesses for teams’ depth charts (e.g. putting Alcides Escobar as the Brewers’ primary SS over Craig Counsell). I added estimated PA and IP for free agents. Finally, I knocked 10% off of pitchers’ IP and 5% off of hitters’ PA, which scaled them pretty closely to match the existing projections.

If that sounds like I’m just making stuff up as I go along…well, I sort of am. But I think it’s possible to improve on the wisdom of the computers with some subjective (but commonsensical) knowledge. For those who may be concerned with my meddling, I plan on keeping the unadjusted numbers around, as well.

You can see what the composite projections look like with playing time adjustments by selecting 2010 Composite (Adj.) on the Price Guide. I would love to hear input on where these can be improved. My initial concerns will probably be dropping PA for catchers a little bit and seeing about inflating the top tier a little bit.

Adding Dollar Values to Your CBS League

11 Comments
February 1st, 2010 by Mays
Categories: Price Guide

Did you know that you can add the Price Guide’s dollar values to your fantasy league’s website (Yahoo, ESPN, CBS Sportsline, or Allstar Stats)? Here’s what it looks like on a public CBS league:

CBS Free Agent Rankings

These are dollar values that are customized to whatever settings your league is using and that only show up on your computer. During the preseason, you can use the projected stats on this site or your own customized projections. Once the season starts, you might instead show each player’s actual, year-to-date dollar value.

The dollar values are easy to add. Since CBS already has their leagues up, here is all you need to do to add them:

1. Download Mozilla Firefox and Greasemonkey. Firefox is an internet browser that works as an alternative to Internet Explorer. Greasemonkey is an add-on to Firefox that allows you to customize how pages appear.

2. Enter your CBS Sports league settings into the Price Guide. For a public league, you should only need to change the number of teams from 12 to 10. If you use “Standard Roto” (i.e. 4×4) rules, you will also want to remove batter runs and pitcher strikeouts. (If you have a Premium league at CBS, you may need to change more settings to match your league.)

3. Click the link on the results. At the top of the Price Guide results, you should see a link to add dollar values to a CBS Sportsline league. Click the link and Greasemonkey should recognize and install the script.

Link for Installing CBS Greasemonkey Script

4. Check it out on your league homepage. Go to your league, and you should notice the dollar values showing up next to each player’s name.

While CBS provides player rankings that give you an idea of a player’s value, remember that these are not customized for your specific league. Also, it might be valuable to know places where the Price Guide’s projections diverge from CBS’s. Compare CBS’s 2B rankings to what the Price Guide thinks:

CBS 2B Rankings

While much of those rankings line up, the Price Guide’s projections put much less weight in Aaron Hill’s and Ben Zobrist’s remarkable 2009 improvements, expecting them to settle somewhere in between 2008 and 2009.

CBS 3B Rankings

At 3B it is clear that the Price Guide continues to put less emphasis on one year’s stats: The projections don’t discount David Wright’s mysteriously poor 2009 as much as CBS does, placing him at $28 and the 2nd best 3B.

While you certainly don’t have to agree with one or the other, I think those kinds of discrepancies can be valuable to realize. Also remember that these values will update as the Price Guide updates this spring. During the year, they will update daily based on the latest year-to-date stats.

More 2010 Projections (CAIRO)

5 Comments
January 6th, 2010 by Mays
Categories: Price Guide, Site News

There’s another projection already here: The CAIRO projections courtesy of SG from the Replacement Level Yankee’s Weblog. I am admittedly no lover of the Yankees, but I certainly cannot complain about the quality of these projections. In this case, I’ll even refrain from making any snide remarks about the fact that CAIRO puts a conspicuously high $6 value on Yankee’s catcher prospect Jesus Montero. (CHONE, for comparison, has him at -$3.)

Of course, RLYW is a valuable site even for us non-Yankee fans. For example, each year SG shows that his projections are much more than a fantasy tool by simulating the season in advance. (See 2009’s blowout.) Taking the CAIRO, CHONE, Marcel, ZiPS, THT, and PECOTA projections, he simulates the upcoming season 1000 times with each to generate predicted standings for each division.

Anyway, two projections is enough for me to call it a quorum and to fire up the composite projections — currently just an 50/50 mix of CHONE and CAIRO. Still no saves, but it’s only January.

The First Projections of 2010: CHONE

7 Comments
January 5th, 2010 by Mays
Categories: Price Guide, Site News

The first projections for 2010 are here!

Sean Smith of BaseballProjection.com has graciously allowed me to include his 2010 CHONE projections on the Price Guide.

CHONE is a computerized projection system that has year-after-year produced some of the most accurate predictions.  In addition to CHONE, Sean is also recognized for the development of his historical Wins Above Replacement (WAR) data, statistical measurements for comparing players (1871-2009) across positions and eras.  It’s not fantasy-related, but it is very impressive and a testament to some of the hard work Sean has done in baseball research.

As usual with projection systems, there are no saves projected in CHONE, but we’ll be discussing save candidates a bit later.  (Of course, since the Price Guide lets you customize the projections to your own liking, it’s pretty easy to add your own save predictions.)

Please let me know if you notice any problems.  Thanks again to Sean for making this happen.

End of Season Price Guide Updates

7 Comments
October 13th, 2009 by Mays
Categories: Price Guide, Site News

A couple of quick updates regarding the Price Guide:

  • Errors, holds, and quality starts are now all available for 2009 stats.
  • You now have the ability to force a custom hitter/pitcher split instead of using what the Price Guide determines as optimal. If you know that owners in your league will only spend 30% of their budgets on pitching, you can force a 70/30 split to mimic your league’s behavior, even if the Price Guide is recommending a 64/36 split.

As you may have noticed with the posts trailing off as the season started this year, this blog will primarily be a seasonal feature. I’m hoping to focus on content and Price Guide updates from January through March, and then slow down as the draft season finishes up.

I appreciate all of the comments that everyone posted this season, and I’m looking forward to continuing that discussion next spring.

The 2009 Fantasy All-Star Team

2 Comments
July 7th, 2009 by Mays
Categories: Price Guide

Using the inseason dollar values from the Price Guide through yesterday, here are my lineups for the Fantasy All-Star team:

C – Joe Mauer ($38)
C – Victor Martinez ($30)

Brandon Inge ($27) is worth mentioning here, too, but he falls a little behind these two. No one else is even close to these three.

2B – Chase Utley ($29)
SS – Hanley Ramirez ($31)
MI – Ian Kinsler ($26)

Absolutely no surprises there, as those three were all early round choices. Aaron Hill ($25) has provided a nice windfall for fantasy owners.

OF – Carl Crawford ($34)
OF – Torii Hunter ($31)
OF – Ryan Braun ($30)
OF – Raul Ibanez ($27)
OF – Jason Bay ($24)

Carl Crawford’s incredible stolen base total has placed him as the #2 most valuable hitter, behind only Albert Pujols. Torii Hunter has apparently become a five-category talent this year to win a starting nod on the team.

Either Johnny Damon ($24) or Adam Lind ($23) can take the place of the injured Ibanez.

1B – Albert Pujols ($46)
3B – Mark Reynolds ($30)
CI – Justin Morneau ($29)
Util – Prince Fielder ($29)

Pujols has been the clear first half MVP, leading the next best hitter by $12. David Wright ($23) has not shown any power so far, but he’s been good enough elsewhere to still be a valuable player.

SP – Dan Haren ($39)
SP – Zack Greinke ($34)
SP – Tim Lincecum ($34)
SP – Roy Halladay ($26)
SP – Felix Hernandez ($23)
SP – Matt Cain ($23)
RP – Jonathan Broxton ($19)
RP – Joe Nathan ($14)
RP – Heath Bell ($14)

The early half of 2009 has seen some strong performances by starting pitchers, with just about all of the top ten all having ERAs below 3.00. Yovani Gallardo ($23), Chris Carpenter ($22), Edwin Jackson ($22), Javier Vazquez ($22), and Josh Johnson ($21) all deserve a mention here.

Relative to that, relievers haven’t been that spectacular. Ryan Franklin ($13) and Andrew Bailey ($11) have been pleasant surprises for save-chasers this year.

Anybody I’m leaving out?

ESPN League Dollar Values

6 Comments
April 27th, 2009 by Mays
Categories: Price Guide, Site News

You may have noticed the latest Greasemonkey script link on the Price Guide — a script for ESPN leagues.

Here’s what the Player Rater looks like in the FantasyPros911 Experts League, a standard AL-only league:

ESPN Player Rater with Dollar Values

With both the top fantasy hitter and the most valuable fantasy pitcher on his team, it’s not surprising that Perry Van Hook has a solid grip on 1st place.

You can get dollar values customized for you own league with the Price Guide. From there, you should see links to add the prices to your league homepage (Yahoo, ESPN, CBS, or Allstar Stats).

Dollar Values on Your CBS League Homepage

16 Comments
April 22nd, 2009 by Mays
Categories: Price Guide, Site News

As promised, I’ve got a new Greasemonkey script that will display customized, up-to-date dollar values on your CBS fantasy league homepage. The effect is very similar to the Yahoo screenshots I posted earlier.

Now, whenever you generate dollar values with the Price Guide, you should see links to add the dollar values to your league:

Greasemonkey links

The links are Greasemonkey scripts that are generated with your specific league parameters, so there’s no longer any need to edit the scripts yourself. If you have Greasemonkey installed, all you have to do is click the link and the prices should start showing up.

This is all still a work in progress, so there could still be a few quirks. Please let me know if you have any problems with it.