Here are three things that surprised me about CAIRO’s first round rankings:

Albert Pujols is still a top choice.
Pujols had a down year in 2011, failing to record 100 RBI or notch a .300 batting average for the first time in forever. With the possibility of a little age-related decline, I expected that he would be dragged down at least into the middle of the first round.

Not so, says CAIRO. Pujols’s down year really wasn’t that bad. In fact, he was only one RBI short of 100, and just a few decimals away from a .300 average (actually finishing with a .299). Combine that with an usual lack of top candidates, and Pujols still has an argument for being the top fantasy draft choice.

Matt Kemp could be for real.
My strong suspicion is that 2011 will be the best we see of Matt Kemp. He’s been a 2nd or 3rd rounder for a while before putting up a monster year across all five categories in 2011. I figured the .324 average was a fluke even if the speed and power were real. Like the Dodgers in real life, I figured fantasy drafters would put way too much stock in an out-of-character 2011 and overpay bad in 2012. This is just like the Carlos Gonzalez story of last year.

The surprise? CAIRO projects a .280 average for Kemp, and he’s still a top-ranked player. He’s basically only behind Pujols and Miguel Cabrera (and Ryan Braun) in the early projections. Even if last year was a fluke, Kemp still has the best shot at being a 30-30 player, and that kind of player is still a top pick in fantasy. I am still concerned that he ends up a lot like CarGo did last year, but I’m a little more optimistic, now.

Say goodbye to premium positions.
A key to determining player value is that you don’t look at a player’s total stats, but you look at their stats relative to other players at their position. This has meant that there are often players in the first round whose stats don’t compare favorably to slugging firstbasemen, but they make up for it by playing a premium position like SS or C. This is the basic argument for ranking Hanley Ramirez, Joe Mauer, and Troy Tulowitzki in the first round in years past.

This is looking like the year of the 1B. Pujols is still a top choice, as is Miguel Cabrera. But the early projections have Adrian Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeira, and Ryan Howard all among the top 12 hitters.

Typically, the wealth of quality players at firstbase drags some of these names down into the second round. But other positions aren’t showing many players who can distance themselves from the competition. Cano is a quality 2B and Tulo looks like a solid SS, but CAIRO doesn’t see many players who can vault themselves into the first round with a premium position.

It’s still too early to put too much weight into projections; things will shift around quite a bit as playing-time estimates are added and more projections are added. But it’s looking like 2012 will be an interesting year for fantasy drafts.

Given 140 IP, he actually projects above replacement level in a standard mixed league ($3). He’s in a mix of high-upside pitchers valued in the low single digits (Jordan Zimmermann, Brian Matusz, Johnny Cueto). I think a 4.00 ERA and 1.30 WHIP are actually pretty realistic for 2011, especially since he gets a little help pitching in Safeco.

Steamer is the work of J. Cross and a team of high school students. But before you disregard this as a simple high school project — Steamer’s pitching projections were the best performing in 2010. Better than CHONE, ZiPS, CAIRO, and Marcel. This makes me sad after seeing their projection for Daniel Hudson (4.45 ERA, 1.42 WHIP), who I’ve been hyping all spring based on his otherwise favorable projections. Needless to say, though, these are quality projections comparable to or better than the others available here.

The only reason Steamer hasn’t got much publicity here is because they have typically been released after much of the fantasy drafting season. It’s fortunate for us that they’ve managed to push them out much earlier in 2011.

Note that these are currently not part of the composite projections. I’ll work them in if I get the chance.

Round 11:
Brandon Morrow (126) – I like the K’s, but he hasn’t shown he can get his ERA under 4.00, yet.
Daniel Hudson (130) – I’ve already talked about why I think he’s a bargain. Obviously, he can’t maintain a sub-2.00 ERA, but he’s a steal at his current position if he can even put up a 3.70 ERA.

Round 12:
Ricky Romero (136) – He’s Brandon Morrow without the K’s. There are plenty of better pitchers still available.
Mike Stanton (140) – Great power upside should at least put him in the top 100.

Round 13:
Alex Gonzalez (148) – I like the old Braves SS (Yunel Escobar) better, and he comes about 170 picks later.
Jorge Posada (149) – He’s not dead yet. I think he’ll get plenty of ABs at DH.

Round 14:
Chris Perez (158) – Looked good in half a season, but I’m not sold, yet.
Drew Stubbs (157) – Power/speed combo that is mysteriously undervalued. What’s the difference between him and Ian Stewart four rounds earlier? The only one I see is that Stubbs can also steal 30 bases.

Round 15:
James Shields (172) – Like most people, I expect him to bounce back from last year’s 5.18 ERA/1.39 WHIP campaign. However, his ERA wasn’t great in 2009 either (4.14), so I’m concerned about him getting back in the 3.00′s.
Hiroki Kuroda (175) – The K’s aren’t overly impressive, but they aren’t terrible either. The Price Guide sees him as basically equal to Yovani Gallardo (trade some K’s for WHIP), but Gallardo is being drafted 100 picks earlier.

Round 16:
No complaints.

Round 17:
Marco Scutaro (193) – I’m thinking Lowrie gets at least 400 AB this year, and Scutaro is going to be the playing time victim. If he has the same stats as in the past but loses 200 AB, Scutaro drops off the mixed league radar.
Ted Lilly (195) – I’ve got him projected to basically be Chad Billingsley with a better WHIP (3.60 ERA, 1.25 WHIP). Billingsley is going 84th overall.

Round 18:
Jon Niese (209) – Is there reason to expect him to improve on last year’s 4.20 ERA?
Matt Thornton (206) – Dominance against lefties and righties makes him the obvious choice for the closer’s job. I think he ends the year as a top-tier closer.

Round 19:
Derek Holland (226) – Good K/9 points to upside, but I think the risk is greater.
Jose Tabata (224) – I think there’s a bit of Pirate-ignorance among baseball fans. Tabata looks very similar to me to Shane Victorino (ADP 145) — .280 with 10 HR and 30 SB. I also like Neil Walker (277).

Round 20:
Fernando Rodney (230) – A scary closer.
Rajai Davis (236) – Can steal 50 bags and score plenty of runs at the top of the Toronto lineup.

Round 21:
Matt Capps (250) – If I’m grabbing a closer in waiting, I’d much rather have Joaquin Benoit (ND), Daniel Bard (304), or Luke Gregerson (386). Not only do I think they have a better shot of saves this year, I think they are just better pitchers than Capps.
Angel Pagan (242) – Breakout 2010 gives Pagan playing time for 2011. He looks like a well-rounded late-rounder.

A few other names with large gaps between ADP and the composite projections:

Joe Nathan (217)
Chris Iannetta (268)
Neil Walker (277)
Tsuyoshi Nishioka (281)
J.P. Arencibia (310)
Yunel Escobar (321)
Chris Coghlan (331)
Dallas Braden (364)

Round 1:
Evan Longoria (5) – Longoria has never put up 1st round numbers, and I’m not betting my first round pick on upside. I’ve already written about Longoria being overrated.
Ryan Braun (9) – A 5-category contributor like Braun shouldn’t be hanging around the second half of the first round. He’s a great building block to get your team established in every category.

Round 2:
Matt Kemp (24) – I’m not really down on Kemp, I just think he’s a better choice in the 3rd round. I think the second round actually looks pretty good.
Matt Holliday (23) – Like Braun, Holliday is a consistent, 5-category performer.

Round 3:
Ichiro Suzuki (32) – I can get steals and average much later. Ichiro is a fun and unique player in real life but perennially overrated in fantasy.
Cliff Lee (36) – Looks great back in the NL with lots of win opportunities.

Round 4:
Jimmy Rollins (40) – Aging skills make him a liability in average, and he doesn’t have the power and speed he used to. Shortstop scarcity is no excuse.
Zack Greinke (47) – As with Lee, I like pitchers moving to good NL teams. The injury doesn’t scare me and could let him come even cheaper.

Round 5:
Mariano Rivera (59) – The Price Guide puts him as the top closer as well, but he scares me more than Wilson (74), Bell (80), or Soria (67).

Round 6:
Elvis Andrus (68) – Has steals but no power or average. I like the balanced Alexei Ramirez (96) much better.
Josh Johnson (72) – I can’t imagine taking David Price (61) or Yovani Gallardo (63) ahead of Johnson. Gallardo hasn’t shown he can help in WHIP, and Price’s wins are hard to predict.

Round 7:
No major complaints, here.

Round 8:
Trevor Cahill (91) – Doesn’t help in strikeouts, the lack of which also causes concern for ERA and WHIP.
Alexei Ramirez (96) – Best mid-round SS value.

Round 9:
Casey McGehee (106) – Getting 100 RBIs last year looks flukey. Also no longer 2B-eligible.
Roy Oswalt (105) – Oswalt or Cahill? I’m taking Oswalt.

Round 10:
Ian Stewart (113) – Batting average and playing time are concerns.
Mike Napoli (116) – Batting average and playing time are concerns, but that’s okay because he’s a catcher. In fact, I have Napoli and Stewart projected very similarly, but catcher eligibility makes Napoli a bargain in the 10th and Stewart a risk.

This year I was able to compile projections from 15 – that’s right, fifteen! — different sources, and there’s still one more system I’d like to incorporate into in a future update. However, this spreadsheet only includes players who were included in at least eight or more of the 15 different projection systems, and who are currently on an MLB roster (including spring NRI’s).

It’s in a format that is pretty easy if you want to upload it to the Price Guide to see what kinds of rankings it gives. Actually, you can already try it out on the Price Guide.

Tim also makes a bold prediction by ranking Nishioka as his #11 middle infielder — about a $14 value. That seems optimistic, but it counters well the excessive pessimism on Nishioka everywhere else: Yahoo has him as the #38 MI. MockDraftCentral has him being drafted as the #42 MI. That basically means he’s going undrafted in a lot of mixed leagues, where 36 MI (or less) are starting.

People talk about him being an unknown because he’s played in Japan. I don’t see it, though: We actually know a good deal about what happens to NPB players who come to MLB, because there are plenty of players who have made the switch (in either direction). No projection is made with absolute certainty, but I don’t think NPB projections are any less certain than are other rookie projections.

The Price Guide provides the temperate choice: Nishioka is currently valued at $3 — the #28 middle infielder. He seems like a good bet for 20 SB and a decent BA, with tons of upside in both categories. (He hit .346 last year in NPB.) With his skillset, he’s also a great target for the Sweeney Plan — it’s not surprising he ended up on my example Sweeney team in a snake draft.

Would you rather have Robinson Cano in the 1st round or Dustin Pedroia in the 3rd round?

Both Nate and co-host Matthew Berry agreed that Pedroia is a better value in the 3rd round than Cano is in the 1st. And, for what it’s worth, I happen to agree. Here’s the thing, though: If you are finding “value” in your own rankings, you are doing your rankings wrong.

If you are ranking fantasy players, the goal is to rank everyone where they are worth. There cannot be an overpriced player. If there is, then you need to lower your ranking for him. There also cannot be a player who is a bargain where he is ranked. If there is, then you need to raise your ranking for him.

The ESPN guys provide solid logic for their reasoning for preferring a 3rd round Pedroia: Cano was great last year, but it would be difficult for him to improve on that season. That makes sense: Typically the first round is reserved for players who have been consistent top producers. However, neither one was confident enough in Cano to prefer him to taking Pedroia later. And yet neither one would back off from ranking him in the first round.

Like I said above: If you are finding favorably ranked guys in your own rankings, you need to make some adjustments. Either Cano needs to be dropped some or Pedroia needs to be raised (or both) until you are satisfied that they offer equivalent values for their draft position.

In this case, I think the Price Guide’s projections are tremendously more realistic: Cano is the top-ranked 2B, but he’s a mid-to-late second rounder in ESPN leagues. That’s just below consistent top-performers like Holliday, Crawford, and Teixeira. And it’s basically where the ESPN guys would seem to rank him if they listened to their intuition and were unafraid to make a challenge to ADP.

The Marcels are a baseline projection system — there are no minor league stats, no park adjustments, no league adjustments. It projects its own saves (I project them for everyone else), and it doesn’t know that Rafael Soriano signed with the Yankees or that Trevor Hoffman retired. So it’s not as sophisticated as the other projections, but it gives a good starting point.

But what’s the deal with the love of catchers? The Price Guide always seems to rank catchers highly, but Mauer #2?