Now that the composite projections have been adjusted for probable playing time, it might be interesting to see which players were most affected by the change. Here are the players who got the biggest bump due to increased playing time:
J.R. Towles (C – Hou)
Erick Aybar (SS – LAA)
Mike Napoli (C – LAA)
Matt Diaz (OF – Atl)
Gregg Zaun (C – Mil)
Chris Iannetta (C – Col)
Jorge Posada (C – NYY)
Elijah Dukes (OF – Was)
Rickie Weeks (2B – Mil)
Ryan Doumit (C – Pit)
On average, these players saw their fantasy values jump by about $14 after the playing time adjustment!
In fantasy baseball, a player’s value is based not only on his skills, but also on his opportunities. A relief pitcher gains tons of value when he moves from an 8th to 9th inning role and starts accumulating saves. Pitchers on good offensive teams will get more wins, and hitters will get more RBIs.
And a playing time opportunity will give some players a chance to find fantasy value this year. A couple of names on the list find themselves unexpectedly at the top of the depth chart for 2010 — J.R. Towles, Matt Diaz, and Gregg Zaun especially.
Others on the list missed significant time last year due to injury. That is true for Ryan Doumit, Elijah Dukes, and Rickie Weeks. The projections all downgrade their playing time, but they get quite a boost if we assume they will be healthy in 2010.
Notice also the unusual number of catchers on this list; I’ll come back to them in a minute. On the other hand, you have to go down a ways to start finding pitchers. Chris Carpenter and Billy Wagner get big boosts after injuries, and Mat Latos gets a depth-chart jump.
Here are the players whose value decreases after adjusting for projected playing time:
Chris Fetter (SP – SD)
Carlos Alvarado (SP – LAD)
Brad Brach (RP – SD)
Jon Jay (C – StL)
J.R. House (C – KC)
Matt Miller (2B – Col)
Matthew Way (SP – Phi)
Juan Francisco (3B – Cin)
Kelvim Escobar (SP – NYM)
Eric Farris (2B – Mil)
Oscar Salazar (OF – SD)
Who? I’d say taking these guys off the list is a definite positive. Once again there are a few factors that are evident:
First, apparently Petco can make several guys buried in the minors look like decent pitchers for fantasy. If they played anywhere else, we wouldn’t be seing Chris Fetter or Brad Brach on this list.
Others are just too far down on the depth chart and blocked by other players at the major league level. J.R. House looks like a decent catcher from his minor league stats, but he’s unlikely to get ahead of Jason Kendall and Brayan Pena on the Royals’ depth chart.
As mentioned above, catcher is the position with the most movement (in both directions) from the playing time adjustment. Real baseball teams determine playing time based on more than just fantasy production, and — for catchers especially — defense matters. So guys who have an above replacement bat might not figure to get any time in the majors, while several fantasy-irrelevant catchers will get plenty of starts. I think this shift is also responsible for pushing higher the dollar values of the top-tier catchers on the adjusted projections.