SubscribeSince the projections here typically don’t attempt to project saves (or, like Marcel, do a poor job of it by giving Rafael Soriano 25 saves), I have found myself coming up with some numbers on my own in order to provide fantasy value. That’s pretty easy for 20 or so teams, where the closer is pretty well locked in, but there’s always a few teams where projecting saves is a mess.
While I was working on some comments regarding the messy closing situations, I noticed Yahoo’s Andy Behrens recently did a run-through of ninth-inning possibilities. It’s a good read, and I by-and-large agree with his assessments. I will add these musings on the worst of the situations (where the biggest potential bargains can be found):
Atlanta Braves
Early indicators are that RHP Craig Kimbrel and LHP Jonny Venters will be sharing duties, letting the Braves play the R/L matchups. Venters did great last year in the bullpen, so CAIRO has him projected very highly. Kimbrel also projects to be very good, and as the RHP part of the committee he should be the primary beneficiary of saves. I think Kimbrel has a great shot of being a steal this year and being an elite closing option in 2012.
Baltimore Orioles
Another duo is available in Baltimore, where the closing duties should fall to either Kevin Gregg or Koji Uehara. I’m not crazy about either one: I think Gregg will get the first shot, but I think Uehara is the better pitcher. I’d rather have either of the Atlanta boys rather than take a chance on these two. I don’t see much upside in this situation to compensate for the risk.
Tampa Bay Rays
If you want to see a mess at closer, check out Tampa Bay. There is no one that shows up on MockDraftCentral’s ADP report for the top 400 players. I have no faith in Kyle Farnsworth and his hard, straight fastball. Jake McGee and the currently-injured J.P. Howell are lefties that sometimes get mentioned as options. However, I’m currently liking Joel Peralta as a sneaky guy to win the job and notch 20-30 saves. He had a really good season last year in Washington, and he wouldn’t be the first journeyman to figure things out in his 30′s and put together a few solid seasons.
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto has filled their bullpen with one-time closers Frank Francisco, Octavio Dotel, Jon Rauch, and Jason Frasor. I think most people have settled on Francisco as the best bet for saves, although MDC still has Dotel slightly above him. Frank is also a great guy to target in Yahoo drafts where he is currently buried in the rankings.
I’ll throw one other name out that looks like a great draft-day bargain: Matt Thornton. I’ve got Thornton ranked in the Papelbon-Feliz range of very-good but not quite elite. I’ve been expecting the White Sox to bring someone else in, but it’s looking more and more like Thornton’s the guy. And if he is, then I have faith that he will be very good.