Here are what I consider to be my top picks for 2011:

Mike Napoli is a round 10 bargain; Ian Stewart is a risk.
I noticed that these two players with ADPs in Round 10 had similar concerns — low batting averages and a risk of losing playing time. I thought that the lower offensive standards of catching made those things less of a problem for Napoli.

Really, all I was getting at was that even a best-case scenario for Stewart (good power and a bad average) would still only be worth a late round pick. It just turned out that both players far exceeded my expectations. Napoli did much better than projected, Stewart much worse.

Casey McGehee is a bad choice in Round 9.
McGehee managed to knock in 100 runs in 2010, but I commented that it looked flukey. There was some debate on this one in the comments at the time, and I argued that guys who hit 20 HR a year can’t consistently get that many RBIs.

McGehee, in fact, struggled in 2011 and finished up below replacement level. With 67 RBI.

Ryan Braun is a great choice at #9 overall.
It’s hard to pick an underrated guy for the first round. I thought Braun looked like he was a being a little undervalued with an ADP at #9. He ended up with an NL MVP and, absent a 50-game suspension, would be an easy #1 or #2 pick for 2012.

Ichiro is “perennially overrated in fantasy.”
There are always cheap sources of steals, so even a favorable projection for Ichiro wouldn’t merit the 3rd round pick drafters were using for him. His batting average continued to fade in 2011, slipping below .300 for the first time in his career.

Take Daniel Hudson over Brandon Morrow in Round 11.
Both guys were being drafted at about the same spot (pick #126 vs. pick #130). However, I had Hudson valued at $12 and Morrow at $2. Their actual 2011 values were $11 and $0.

A few other good sleepers I nailed:

Mike Stanton (ADP #140, finished #61)
Drew Stubbs (ADP #157, finished #89)
Hiroki Kuroda (ADP #175, finished #109)

So that’s pretty conclusive evidence of some amazing prognosticating ability, right?

Actually, that just tells you that if you make enough picks, it’s easy to pick out a few to brag on.

Round 11:
Brandon Morrow (126) – I like the K’s, but he hasn’t shown he can get his ERA under 4.00, yet.
Daniel Hudson (130) – I’ve already talked about why I think he’s a bargain. Obviously, he can’t maintain a sub-2.00 ERA, but he’s a steal at his current position if he can even put up a 3.70 ERA.

Round 12:
Ricky Romero (136) – He’s Brandon Morrow without the K’s. There are plenty of better pitchers still available.
Mike Stanton (140) – Great power upside should at least put him in the top 100.

Round 13:
Alex Gonzalez (148) – I like the old Braves SS (Yunel Escobar) better, and he comes about 170 picks later.
Jorge Posada (149) – He’s not dead yet. I think he’ll get plenty of ABs at DH.

Round 14:
Chris Perez (158) – Looked good in half a season, but I’m not sold, yet.
Drew Stubbs (157) – Power/speed combo that is mysteriously undervalued. What’s the difference between him and Ian Stewart four rounds earlier? The only one I see is that Stubbs can also steal 30 bases.

Round 15:
James Shields (172) – Like most people, I expect him to bounce back from last year’s 5.18 ERA/1.39 WHIP campaign. However, his ERA wasn’t great in 2009 either (4.14), so I’m concerned about him getting back in the 3.00′s.
Hiroki Kuroda (175) – The K’s aren’t overly impressive, but they aren’t terrible either. The Price Guide sees him as basically equal to Yovani Gallardo (trade some K’s for WHIP), but Gallardo is being drafted 100 picks earlier.

Round 16:
No complaints.

Round 17:
Marco Scutaro (193) – I’m thinking Lowrie gets at least 400 AB this year, and Scutaro is going to be the playing time victim. If he has the same stats as in the past but loses 200 AB, Scutaro drops off the mixed league radar.
Ted Lilly (195) – I’ve got him projected to basically be Chad Billingsley with a better WHIP (3.60 ERA, 1.25 WHIP). Billingsley is going 84th overall.

Round 18:
Jon Niese (209) – Is there reason to expect him to improve on last year’s 4.20 ERA?
Matt Thornton (206) – Dominance against lefties and righties makes him the obvious choice for the closer’s job. I think he ends the year as a top-tier closer.

Round 19:
Derek Holland (226) – Good K/9 points to upside, but I think the risk is greater.
Jose Tabata (224) – I think there’s a bit of Pirate-ignorance among baseball fans. Tabata looks very similar to me to Shane Victorino (ADP 145) — .280 with 10 HR and 30 SB. I also like Neil Walker (277).

Round 20:
Fernando Rodney (230) – A scary closer.
Rajai Davis (236) – Can steal 50 bags and score plenty of runs at the top of the Toronto lineup.

Round 21:
Matt Capps (250) – If I’m grabbing a closer in waiting, I’d much rather have Joaquin Benoit (ND), Daniel Bard (304), or Luke Gregerson (386). Not only do I think they have a better shot of saves this year, I think they are just better pitchers than Capps.
Angel Pagan (242) – Breakout 2010 gives Pagan playing time for 2011. He looks like a well-rounded late-rounder.

A few other names with large gaps between ADP and the composite projections:

Joe Nathan (217)
Chris Iannetta (268)
Neil Walker (277)
Tsuyoshi Nishioka (281)
J.P. Arencibia (310)
Yunel Escobar (321)
Chris Coghlan (331)
Dallas Braden (364)

Round 1:
Evan Longoria (5) – Longoria has never put up 1st round numbers, and I’m not betting my first round pick on upside. I’ve already written about Longoria being overrated.
Ryan Braun (9) – A 5-category contributor like Braun shouldn’t be hanging around the second half of the first round. He’s a great building block to get your team established in every category.

Round 2:
Matt Kemp (24) – I’m not really down on Kemp, I just think he’s a better choice in the 3rd round. I think the second round actually looks pretty good.
Matt Holliday (23) – Like Braun, Holliday is a consistent, 5-category performer.

Round 3:
Ichiro Suzuki (32) – I can get steals and average much later. Ichiro is a fun and unique player in real life but perennially overrated in fantasy.
Cliff Lee (36) – Looks great back in the NL with lots of win opportunities.

Round 4:
Jimmy Rollins (40) – Aging skills make him a liability in average, and he doesn’t have the power and speed he used to. Shortstop scarcity is no excuse.
Zack Greinke (47) – As with Lee, I like pitchers moving to good NL teams. The injury doesn’t scare me and could let him come even cheaper.

Round 5:
Mariano Rivera (59) – The Price Guide puts him as the top closer as well, but he scares me more than Wilson (74), Bell (80), or Soria (67).

Round 6:
Elvis Andrus (68) – Has steals but no power or average. I like the balanced Alexei Ramirez (96) much better.
Josh Johnson (72) – I can’t imagine taking David Price (61) or Yovani Gallardo (63) ahead of Johnson. Gallardo hasn’t shown he can help in WHIP, and Price’s wins are hard to predict.

Round 7:
No major complaints, here.

Round 8:
Trevor Cahill (91) – Doesn’t help in strikeouts, the lack of which also causes concern for ERA and WHIP.
Alexei Ramirez (96) – Best mid-round SS value.

Round 9:
Casey McGehee (106) – Getting 100 RBIs last year looks flukey. Also no longer 2B-eligible.
Roy Oswalt (105) – Oswalt or Cahill? I’m taking Oswalt.

Round 10:
Ian Stewart (113) – Batting average and playing time are concerns.
Mike Napoli (116) – Batting average and playing time are concerns, but that’s okay because he’s a catcher. In fact, I have Napoli and Stewart projected very similarly, but catcher eligibility makes Napoli a bargain in the 10th and Stewart a risk.

I caught an interesting argument on a recent CBSSports podcast regarding Diamondbacks pitcher Dan Hudson:

Al Melchior: Hudson actually is somebody I’m not as high on for this year. Long term I like the guy. But [he] had some very odd looking numbers last year — very, very low BABIP, also very, very low HR/FB ratio, which is a very dangerous thing for a guy who gives up a lot of flyballs and pitches in a homerun ballpark. So I think the ERA is going to go up. Actually the ERA and the WHIP I think will go up this year. I think he could disappoint in 2011.

Yes, you heard it here first: Dan Hudson will not repeat his 1.69 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. The ERA and the WHIP “will go up this year.” Those of you expecting him to be a $55 player as he dominates the league in those categories can prepare for disappointment.

Actually, I’m pretty sure no one is expecting Hudson to maintain the rates he had last year with Arizona. So, while Al’s argument is technically accurate, it is also pointless. Of course his ERA and WHIP will go up.

The real question is: Can Hudson maintain enough ERA/WHIP to still be a valuable fantasy player in 2011? Obviously, he doesn’t have to have a sub-2.00 ERA to be a very good pitcher this year. His ERA can go up and he can still be a breakout pitcher this year — those aren’t mutually exclusive.

A few points to consider when answering that question:

Hudson has a very good minor league pedigree and track record. He’s a 5th rounder who shot up from A ball to AAA in 2009, posting solid numbers at all four levels.

Hudson gets the benefit of pitching in the NL West. We would expect some natural improvement to occur as a pitcher moves from AL to NL, although not as much as Hudson showed last year going from CWS to ARI. He’s pitching his home games in a bit of a hitters park, but he’s also getting opportunities in SF and SD pitcher parks and is facing weaker lineups than in the AL.

Hudson has shown an excellent strikeout rate. He posted 7.9 K/9 last year, and he was above 10 K/9 in the minors. Strikeouts are valuable in fantasy, and pitchers with lots of Ks also tend to have good ERAs and WHIPs.

So let’s put that all together: Projections are designed to estimate how much a player typically regresses after posting an extraordinarily good (or bad) season. They often take into account things like an unusual BABIP or HR/FB rate. So here’s what the projections think Hudson can do this year:

Marcel: 3.12 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
CAIRO: 3.47 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
ZiPS:3.56 ERA, 1.23 WHIP

Let’s say all of those are still too optimistic, and Hudson’s really closer to a 3.70 ERA, 1.25 WHIP. That’s still a top 25 pitcher. And if he’s a top 25 pitcher he’s a bargain at where he’s being drafted right now.

While I was working on some comments regarding the messy closing situations, I noticed Yahoo’s Andy Behrens recently did a run-through of ninth-inning possibilities. It’s a good read, and I by-and-large agree with his assessments. I will add these musings on the worst of the situations (where the biggest potential bargains can be found):

Atlanta Braves
Early indicators are that RHP Craig Kimbrel and LHP Jonny Venters will be sharing duties, letting the Braves play the R/L matchups. Venters did great last year in the bullpen, so CAIRO has him projected very highly. Kimbrel also projects to be very good, and as the RHP part of the committee he should be the primary beneficiary of saves. I think Kimbrel has a great shot of being a steal this year and being an elite closing option in 2012.

Baltimore Orioles
Another duo is available in Baltimore, where the closing duties should fall to either Kevin Gregg or Koji Uehara. I’m not crazy about either one: I think Gregg will get the first shot, but I think Uehara is the better pitcher. I’d rather have either of the Atlanta boys rather than take a chance on these two. I don’t see much upside in this situation to compensate for the risk.

Tampa Bay Rays
If you want to see a mess at closer, check out Tampa Bay. There is no one that shows up on MockDraftCentral’s ADP report for the top 400 players. I have no faith in Kyle Farnsworth and his hard, straight fastball. Jake McGee and the currently-injured J.P. Howell are lefties that sometimes get mentioned as options. However, I’m currently liking Joel Peralta as a sneaky guy to win the job and notch 20-30 saves. He had a really good season last year in Washington, and he wouldn’t be the first journeyman to figure things out in his 30′s and put together a few solid seasons.

Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto has filled their bullpen with one-time closers Frank Francisco, Octavio Dotel, Jon Rauch, and Jason Frasor. I think most people have settled on Francisco as the best bet for saves, although MDC still has Dotel slightly above him. Frank is also a great guy to target in Yahoo drafts where he is currently buried in the rankings.

I’ll throw one other name out that looks like a great draft-day bargain: Matt Thornton. I’ve got Thornton ranked in the Papelbon-Feliz range of very-good but not quite elite. I’ve been expecting the White Sox to bring someone else in, but it’s looking more and more like Thornton’s the guy. And if he is, then I have faith that he will be very good.

Tim also makes a bold prediction by ranking Nishioka as his #11 middle infielder — about a $14 value. That seems optimistic, but it counters well the excessive pessimism on Nishioka everywhere else: Yahoo has him as the #38 MI. MockDraftCentral has him being drafted as the #42 MI. That basically means he’s going undrafted in a lot of mixed leagues, where 36 MI (or less) are starting.

People talk about him being an unknown because he’s played in Japan. I don’t see it, though: We actually know a good deal about what happens to NPB players who come to MLB, because there are plenty of players who have made the switch (in either direction). No projection is made with absolute certainty, but I don’t think NPB projections are any less certain than are other rookie projections.

The Price Guide provides the temperate choice: Nishioka is currently valued at $3 — the #28 middle infielder. He seems like a good bet for 20 SB and a decent BA, with tons of upside in both categories. (He hit .346 last year in NPB.) With his skillset, he’s also a great target for the Sweeney Plan — it’s not surprising he ended up on my example Sweeney team in a snake draft.

These sleepers can come in all shapes and sizes. Promising rookies looking to make an immediate impact in their debut. Veterans attempting to come back from various injuries and ailments that may have derailed their previous season. Some players have found an expanded role with their club, increased playing time or even a better lineup slot. All of these factors can lead to a player being severely undervalued on draft day, and therefore a sleeper in my book.

I think that’s a pretty good definition of sleeper — which can mean different things to different people (and in different leagues). Of course, I also don’t agree with all of his choices, but that’s to be expected if he is looking for names that others aren’t valuing.

Dave names J.P. Arencibia, Russell Martin, Chris Iannetta, Ike Davis, Juan Miranda, Aaron Hill, Danny Espinosa, Jhonny Peralta, Chris Johnson, Edwin Encarnacion, Hunter Pence, Chris Young, and Ryan Raburn as his fantasy sleepers for 2011.

I’ve discovered the past two years that it’s pretty safe to ignore the no-name catchers who crop up on the Price Guide rankings; catcher is a weak position offensively so its possible to have MLB-caliber batting (and be lacking the MLB-caliber defense).

The other type of player who tends to show up are Rockies, whose hitting projections look better because the ballpark is factored in. They aren’t good hitters; they are just projected in a good ballpark.

Ignoring those guys, the top couple of sleepers I see are:

Zack Cozart (Cin – SS) $12
Looking at Cincinnati’s depth chart, shortstop looks like a depressing position for 2011. Early on, it looked like Paul Janish would be getting the primary nod, but the recent signing of Edgar Renteria changes that a bit. Renteria hasn’t had much fantasy impact over the past couple of years, but it seems likely he’ll be seeing time at short, regardless.

The projections, however, like Zack Cozart better than either Janish or Renteria. Cozart’s lack of contact hitting would make him a liability in AVG, but CAIRO puts him at a decent bet for a 20-20 season if given playing time. (A line oddly similar to fellow-Red Drew Stubbs‘s skillset, except at SS.)

I’m not holding out for Cozart to get a fulltime job with the major league team, though. Especially not with a veteran (and World Series MVP!) like Renteria earning a paycheck from the Reds. He’s more of a name to know in case of injury or a hot start in the minors.

Brandon Belt (SF – 1B) $10
Unlike Cozart, Brandon Belt has actually turned into a decent prospect. He’s a fifth round pick from 2009 who, after a solid year in the minors, has become the Giants’ #1 prospect. He’s got a bit of pop and a bit of speed, which would make him a well-rounded, low-end player for 2011. In keeper leagues he has the upside to be even more valuable beyond 2011, as well.

One issue with Belt is the presence of Aubrey Huff at firstbase. Huff, however, could be used in the outfield if Belt is pushing for a job. Belt has also been moved quickly through the minors, so I could see the Giants starting him off in AAA to begin the year. A good spring could mean Belt comes up sooner than later, though.

Kelly wasn’t quite the sleeper that Colby Lewis was, however. Analysts who were aware of good projection systems didn’t ignore him: Grey at Razzball had a very reasonable analysis (although he hedges by leaving Johnson out of the top 20 2B). Tim Dierkes, likewise, had him as an undervalued hitter, worth $6 despite being drafted in the 26th round. And, of course, I included him on my All-Bargain Team back in March.

So I wasn’t the only voice shouting in the wilderness, but Kelly Johnson was still a cheap pick coming into the season. That would change quickly, though: Johnson’s torrid April no doubt resulted in a lot of waiver wire adds in leagues where he wasn’t drafted. He knocked 9 homers while batting .313, even hitting for the cycle for good measure. He’s cooled off since then, but his season line will probably end up as a pretty normal Johnson-esque season: Double-digit HR and SB with a average around .270-.280. That’s a good, middle-tier 2B after Cano and Utley.

I see one big lesson here:

Don’t write a player off after one bad year.

Johnson had a history of being a good ballplayer. He was young — 28 coming into the season — so there was no reason to expect his poor 2009 was age-related decline. While you certainly take 2009 into account, you can’t discard the sustained success he had in the two years before.

Example #2 for this lesson is Geovany Soto: How did fantasy owners forget about a good 2008 after a poor 2009? Like Johnson, he’s under 30 and presumably still in his prime. The smart choice is to consider a player’s full history — giving the most weight to the most recent season, yes, but not neglecting to consider earlier successes.

Yet in January 2010, I wrote a post entitled “Johan Santana, Josh Beckett and…Colby Lewis” highlighting a projection that put Colby Lewis in the ballpark of those two perennial stars. Lewis was the most surprising name to me when I ran the initial CHONE projections through the Price Guide. CHONE predicted a 3.96 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 8.0 K/9 (although Sean later adjusted it more conservatively to account for Lewis’s poor MLB seasons from several years ago).

Although my post was not as strong a recommendation as that title makes it sound, I did conclude with this line:

Even using the more pessimistic ZiPS, I feel pretty good about paying at least $5-6 for Colby Lewis. At that price, it’s not a big deal to cut him if he doesn’t work out. If it turns out CHONE is right, then that’s a cheap bet that could pay huge dividends.

Basically, Colby Lewis is the kind of risk you take that helps win your league. He offered little downside as a late round, $1 pick, and he had plenty of upside. That $1 pick has (to date) netted about $12 of value in a standard league in 2010, and great keeper value for 2011 and beyond.

What are the lessons here?

Pay attention to NPB stars coming to MLB.
Sure, everyone notices guys like Daisuke Matsuzaka and their huge posting fees. Watch for guys (like Hiroki Kuroda recently) who might not project as stars but who do look like fantasy contributors, especially since these guys will come so much cheaper at the draft than the Matsuzakas will. Note: As in the case of Lewis, the guys without Japanese-sounding names may even get less attention.

Don’t be afraid to use your final picks on high-upside players
At the end of the draft, you are basically just rounding out your roster or filling your bench. You can target reliable veterans — maybe this year it would be guys like Vicente Padilla or Tim Wakefield — who have clear flaws but don’t project to be horrendous. Or, you can take a gamble on a player who might be terrible, but who also has a good chance of turning a profit.

At 2010 drafts, guys like Colby Lewis were the exact kind of sleeper to target if you wanted endgame players who could push you towards a winning season.