Last Player Picked

A quick LIMA story: In 2006, I was really excited about the possibilities for Doug Davis. After some early career struggles, he had put up two solid seasons. His peripheral stats made him an excellent LIMA target — a pitcher ready to breakout in 2006.

I drafted Doug Davis in most of my leagues that year. I was rewarded with an amazing 4.91 ERA and 1.51 WHIP over 203 IP — not exactly the breakout season I was expecting.

The moral of the story: A pitcher who meets the LIMA qualifications is not guaranteed to succeed.

Matt Garza (2008: $7; 2009: $8)
Adam Wainwright (2008: $10; 2009: $9)
I’ll cover Garza and Wainwright together, since their situations seem similar: The projections temper the expected gains for these two young pitchers with a bit of regression in BABIP, which was pretty low for both of them in 2008. The net result is a projected dollar value pretty close to what they put up last year.

The strikeout rate for either pitcher isn’t really as high as you would like in 5×5, and that’s the main thing holding them back from the middle-tier of pitching.

Randy Wolf (2008: $0; 2009: -$2)
The last time Randy Wolf managed an ERA below 4.00? 2002. Not surprisingly, the projections don’t expect an improvement in 2009.

Gil Meche (2008: $6; 2009: $5)
Gil Meche is similar to Wolf, in that there is plenty of data for the projections to use when predicting performance, and so their 2009 values aren’t too far off from last year’s. Meche is a solid pitcher who could be even better, but it’s hard to forecast a breakout after eight seasons in MLB.

Paul Maholm (2008: $4; 2009: $1)
The strikes against Maholm are the same as Garza and Wainwright: Expect the BABIP to regress in 2009. The strikeout rate is not good enough for 5×5. Then throw in a new factor: Maholm stunk in his other two full seasons in the majors (2006 and 2007).

Jorge de la Rosa (2008: -$4; 2009: -$7)
In 2005-2006, Byung-Hyun Kim put up peripheral stats that were pretty close to LIMA-esque, and yet still managed to give up an extraordinary amount of hits (WHIPs over 1.50). Jorge de la Rosa — another Colorado pitcher — looks to fit that same profile.

Wandy Rodriguez (2008: $6; 2009: $2)
Like Lester and Danks, the projections are harsh on Wandy for pitching poorly before 2008. However, his surprisingly good campaign last year was not a result of getting lucky, but came as a result of solid pitching (increasing strikeouts, decreasing walks). Were those improvements for real?

If you think so, you could push the bidding for Wandy into double-digits. The projections are more skeptical of a pitcher who before 2008 had a career 5.17 ERA in 447 IP.

Last week we looked at pitchers who fit the LIMA qualifications but may still carry a high pricetag based on high expectations for 2009. Today, we’ll look at some of the true LIMA pitchers — guys who are borderline draftable who could turn a positive value.

Jonathan Sanchez (2008: -$6; 2009: $3)
Sanchez’s 5.01 ERA in 2008 masked some pretty solid peripheral stats. He struck out 157 in 158 IP for a K/9 of 8.94. That was good for 7th among SP and behind only Harden, Lincecum, Kazmir, Volquez, Burnett, and Billingsley.

The projections indicate that Sanchez could realistically cut the ERA down to a 4.24. That isn’t amazingly useful in a mixed league, but, combined with the strikeouts, it would be worth drafting. Sanchez’s projection is similar to what is projected for Clayton Kershaw, minus all of the hype.

Kevin Millwood (2008: -$14; 2009: -$4)
Like Jonathan Sanchez, Millwood managed an era over 5.00 last year, despite doing a lot of things well. The biggest difference in the two for 2009 is the 20 year gap in age between them.

Even if Millwood sees the same improvements as Sanchez, he’s still below replacement level. I can see taking a flyer in an AL-only league, but it seems like there’s limited upside, here.

Andy Pettitte (2008: -$3; 2009: $2)
Pettitte has put up three straight years of ERAs above 4.00 and WHIPs above 1.40. At his age, there’s no reason to expect any improvement from those marks in 2009. (Although the same thing might have been said about fellow-Yankee Mike Mussina last year, and Mussina managed to end his career on a high note.)

So what does that tell us? Those three are the only pitchers who:

1) Meet the LIMA qualifications
2) Come cheap
3) Are projected to improve by more than a $1.

I’d be willing to take a chance on Jonathan Sanchez, but my enthusiasm for Millwood and Pettitte is limited, despite their projected improvements.

Later this week I’ll examine the last group of LIMA pitchers: Those who are cheap but who are still not projected to do better in 2009 than in 2008.

The second group of LIMA pitchers that I want to look at are guys who meet the LIMA qualifications, but aren’t necessarily cheap enough to fit with the LIMA plan. They are widely regarded as good pitchers, but various problems in 2008 may depress their value. These flaws include wins (Cain and Hernandez), ERA (Beckett and Burnett), or IP (Chamberlain).

Matt Cain (2008: $2; 2009: $18)
Despite garnering only 8 wins last year, Cain was still a very good pitcher. Assuming his luck turns around in 2009, he could find himself back in the upper-middle class of pitchers with John Lackey, Derek Lowe, and Scott Kazmir.

For all of the people marking down 20 wins for Tim Lincecum: If Lincecum can get wins on the Giants, why can’t Cain? The Giants look to have improved in 2009, especially in the bullpen. The composite projections put Matt Cain down for 12 wins next year and a $16 gain in value from 2008.

Josh Beckett (2008: $10; 2009: $22)
Beckett’s ERAs in even years: 4.10, 3.79, 5.01, 4.03
Beckett’s ERAs in odd years: 1.50, 3.04, 3.38, 3.27

Do I think it means anything for 2009? Not really. However, it does indicate that he hasn’t been the most consistent pitcher the last few years.

It does look like he pitched better last year than his 4.00 ERA would indicate. Of course, enough people will remember his good years that I don’t really expect Beckett to be that big of a bargain. The Price Guide thinks he can improve on his 2008 by $12.

Felix Hernandez (2008: $4; 2009: $16)
Like Cain, Felix Hernandez’s low value last year came from poor run support (9 wins) and a high WHIP (1.39). The WHIP has always been a problem for him, but there’s no reason to expect him to only manage single-digit wins in 2009.

People forget it because Felix has already pitched three full seasons, but he only turns 23 years old this year. Even if this isn’t the year he puts everything together, it looks like he could be close to a $20 player.

A.J. Burnett (2008: $9; 2009: $19)

One of my favorite LIMA-related quotes, courtesy of Trace Wood in 2002:

LIMA misses emerging stars like AJ Burnett, Matt Clement, Ramon Ortiz – hardthrowers who could dominate the game for much of the next decade – because it focuses on walk rates.

In hindsight, I find that to be pretty funny. Burnett ended up increasing his K/BB to become a consistent LIMA target and a quality major league pitcher. Clement and Ortiz didn’t quite manage the dominant careers that Trace predicted, although admittedly the issue wasn’t their walk rates: Clement couldn’t stay healthy, and Ortiz couldn’t strike enough people out while allowing way too many homeruns. But I digress.

Like fellow former-Marlin Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett managed an ERA north of 4.00 in 2008, despite both of them striking out around one batter per inning. Although Burnett has never managed a spectacular ERA, his value goes up quite a bit even if he can only get the 3.82 that is projected.

People like to bring up the Pitching for the Yankees = More Wins theory, but Burnett managed 18 wins last year for a decent Toronto team. I wouldn’t bump up his value any by expecting that number to increase in 2009.

Joba Chamberlain (2008: $8; 2009: $17)
Joba is a little different from the rest of the pitchers in this group. Everyone else experienced a down 2008 after putting up better numbers in previous years. Chamberlain’s only weakness in 2008 was his limited IP, as he only accumulating 100 IP between starting and relieving.

Expectations of an increased workload as a fulltime starter send Chamberlain’s value climbing. Just don’t expect the market to discount him: Shandler’s projections make Joba the #1 fantasy pitcher for 2009, and there are plenty of others hyping him as well.

In the first part of my look at LIMA, I grouped the pitchers who met the qualifications based on what was projected for them in 2009. There were two pitchers in the group who were projected for a significant decline — John Danks and Jon Lester. If LIMA is supposed to identify pitchers who are about to break out, then what’s going on with these two?

The Price Guide valued both Danks and Lester at about $13 last year in a standard league. For 2009, the composite projections here put them at $2 and $1, respectively! The opinion is unanimous: CHONE, CAIRO, and ZiPs all see Danks and Lester adding at least one run to their ERAs.

So what’s going on with these two players? Looking at the usual suspects — such as BABIP — doesn’t reveal anything out of the ordinary. As LIMA points out, both of them had solid peripherals. They were both top prospects coming up through the minors, so their success in 2008 wasn’t completely surprising.

So why do the projections hate these guys? I think the answer is simple: Track record.

Both of these pitchers were fantastic in 2008, but there was nothing impressive about their major league careers before that. Danks managed a 5.50 ERA in 139 IP in 2007. Lester had pitched 144 innings at a 4.68 ERA up to that point in his career. While it’s possible that their future performance will mirror what they did in 2008, it’s also possible that it reverts closer to what they had done in the past.

Admittedly, the projections are ignorant of some changes in skill that can result in a true rise in performance level. If a pitcher improves aftern learning a new pitch (as was the case for both Danks and Lester), the projections won’t acknowledge that the player’s history isn’t necessarily indicative of his current abilities.

So I’m not personally convinced by the projections regarding these two pitchers. However, the pessimistic forecasts do give me enough pause that I don’t see myself going into double-digits for these players, and that probably ensures that Danks and Lester won’t land on any of my teams.