Last Player Picked

Earlier, I looked at some young hitters that CHONE projected as being draft-worthy. Now let’s do the same thing for pitchers.

Firing up the Price Guide with the CHONE projections, you’ll notice that the first several interesting names that show up are players in Japan’s NPB league who are not likely to play MLB in 2009. Although a couple of those names might be worth remembering for the future, we’ll skip over Kyuji Fujikawa, Yu Darvish, Hisashi Iwakuma, and Mark Kroon for now.

Doing so leaves only three names on my list worth at least $1, and two of them are Japanese rookies who aren’t particularly young.

Keep in mind that good pitching is tougher to project than good hitting. Whereas CHONE identifies a dozen or so young hitters that it thinks can succeed in the majors, it can only find one young pitcher whom it likes.

That isn’t to say there won’t be several pitchers who come out of nowhere and find success in 2009. It’s just hard to predict who they will be.

Anyways, here are the three who show up:

Jason Motte (RP – StL) $6
With Jason Isringhausen gone from St. Louis, the speculation is ongoing about who will close for the Cardinals in 2009. Chris Perez looks impressive, but CHONE actually likes Motte quite a bit better (especially for fantasy). The thing that stands out about his projection is a simply dominant 10.8 K/9.

There’s a good chance that the Cardinals won’t pick either of Perez or Motte to close, instead signing a veteran like Trevor Hoffman. Even so, CHONE thinks Motte has value (and it isn’t projecting any saves).

Koji Uehara (SP) $3
Unlike the other NPB players that CHONE lists, Koji Uehara and Kenshin Kawakami are free agents who are both pursuing jobs with MLB teams.

CHONE projects Uehara as a RP, a role that he has been in for the past two years with the Yomiuri Giants. Out of the bullpen he looks similar to guys like Rafael Perez and Scot Shields — solid relievers who won’t make a splash in fantasy unless they are closing games. If Uehara lands somewhere that needs a closer, his potential fantasy earnings go up dramatically.

There’s also a chance that whatever team signs him will want to transition him back to starting.

UPDATE: Uehara ended up signing with the Baltimore Orioles after I wrote this article. Since the O’s have George Sherrill and Chris Ray available to finish off games, it looks like Uehara will get the opportunity to switch back to starting games. There’s an updated projection for him at BaseballProjection.com.

Kenshin Kawakami (SP) $1
Kawakami profiles well with Hiroki Kuroda, last season’s biggest name to cross the Pacific. Kuroda (despite a little inconsistency) put together a season that was worth a late draft pick, and Kawakami could match that 2008 line. Like Kuroda, Kawakami doesn’t have a lot of strikeout potential but can still manage a solid ERA and WHIP due to great control.

Some other guys that CHONE likes as bench players, if they get a chance in the bigs:

Eric Stultz (SP – LAD)
Jonathan Sanchez (SP – SF)
Dallas Braden (SP – Oak)
Josh Geer (SP – SD)
Mitch Talbot (SP – TB)
Matthew Maloney (SP – Cin)
Garrett Mock (SP – Was)
Chad Reineke (SP – SD)
Brian Mazone (SP – Phi)
Daniel McCutchen (SP – Pit)
P.J. Walters (SP – StL)

You may have noticed that the CHONE projections have recently been added as an option on the Price Guide. These are stat projections that have done quite well in the past couple years at predicting the actual stats. One especially interesting aspect are the projections for players with little MLB experience (or none at all).

Using the CHONE projections in the Price Guide, I generated dollar values for a standard mixed league that starts 14 hitters per team. Scanning through the results, I found several young hitters who have not yet seen significant time in the majors and whom CHONE projects as draftable players.

For a lot of these guys, the biggest question mark for 2009 is playing time. If you are thinking about drafting one of them, you may want to adjust the listed value based on your own knowledge of their situation.

Nelson Cruz (OF – Tex) $16
A former top prospect who has torn up the minors for years, Nelson Cruz finally performed at the major league level in a limited showing in 2008. CHONE sees him with a combination of speed and power similar to Curtis Granderson.

CHONE is certainly not alone is expecting breakout potential from Cruz: RotoAuthority recently referred to him as 2009′s #1 Sleeper. Don’t be surprised if someone else in your league already plans on going after him.

Assuming that Josh Hamilton is the starting CF and Milton Bradley signs elsewhere, the Rangers have 3 spots (LF, RF, DH) for Cruz, David Murphy, Marlon Byrd, and Brandon Boggs. If Cruz hits in spring training like he did in 2008, it seems like he should get the nod in RF.

See also: Has Nelson Cruz Broken His Quad-A Ceiling?

Pablo Sandoval (C,3B,1B – SF) $15
The CHONE catcher rankings have a clear top tier made up of the 4 M’s — Martin, Mauer, McCann, and Martinez. After a large drop below those, you find Geovany Soto and Pablo Sandoval and then a steady decline down to the $1 players.

So what’s Sandoval doing as the 6th best catcher? CHONE projects a .283 average, which is pretty good from a catcher (and better than anyone else outside the top tier). Considering he batted .345 in his time with SF last year, CHONE’s projections is still pretty conservative.

Combine his BA with an expectation for solid R and RBI, and Sandoval ends up well-ahead of the assortment of sub-$10 catchers. His extra eligibility (3B and 1B for some leagues) might not be a huge benefit, but it certainly doesn’t hurt.

All of this assumes he qualifies at catcher next year. He played 11 G there in 2008, but also played some 1B and 3B. Without catcher eligibility, he projects as a bench player (about -$2).

Matt Wieters (C – Bal) $13
The Price Guide doesn’t list him as a catcher, because it looks strictly at the number of games played at each position in 2008. Wieters didn’t have any starts as a catcher in 2008, and in fact hasn’t yet played in a major league game. But if we pretend for a moment that Wieters qualifies, as many people expect he very quickly will, then baseball’s Top Prospect becomes a very draftable player.

CHONE gives Wieters a projection that is very similar to what it expects from Ryan Doumit (which is also not quite as good as Doumit’s 2008). That puts Matt Wieters in the middle of the pack for catchers,

Wieters has been getting tons of hype, but I think CHONE’s got the right idea with a projection that is more conservative than what some people are suggesting, but still very optimistic for a player who hasn’t played above AA.

Ian Stewart (2B,3B – Col) $11
He’s a former top prospect for the Rockies, but the hype surrounding Ian Stewart has died down with some pedestrian seasons in the minors and the emergence of Garrett Atkins as Colorado’s 3B. CHONE thinks Stewart could put up an Adrian Beltre-level performance in 2009, which certainly has some value as a late round pickup.

Of course, his upside could be .305 AVG, 93 R, 101 RBI, 32 HR, 11 SB, which would probably see him surging to the first round in 2010 drafts (ala 2007 Ryan Braun).

One obstacle: He really only got a chance in 2008 when Todd Helton got hurt (and Atkins slid to 1B). With Jeff Baker and Clint Barmes also in the infield mix, it might be hard for Stewart to get consistent time in 2009. Unless he takes over in LF for Matt Holliday, it might only happen if there’s another injury or if Atkins is traded.

Angel Salome (C – Mil) $10
As with Wieters, Salome hasn’t ever started a major league game at catcher, and so he doesn’t strictly qualify there for the Price Guide. By pretending that he does, we get another player who all of a sudden goes from free agent filler to a player worth drafting.

The statline from CHONE isn’t all that impressive–9 HR and 4 SB. But keep in mind just how low the bar is set for catchers. Even 9 HR and 4 SB looks to be better than what you might get from guys like Kurt Suzuki and A.J. Pierzynski, who will both be starters in a 2-catcher league.

There is reason for caution, though. Baltimore may have cleared the way for Wieters by trading Ramon Hernandez, but Milwaukee looks to be sticking with their veteran catcher, Jason Kendall. Barring an injury or (further) decline by Kendall, Salome might not get much of a shot in 2009.

Joe Koshansky (1B – Col) $9
CHONE puts Joe even with Carlos Delgado–guys with low averages that can still knock 25+. Meeting his projection, however, will be dependent on whether Colorado is willing to overlook his tendency to strikeout (CHONE projects 163 K in 497 AB). Not to mention that the Rockies have Helton at first and (as described for Stewart above) an already crowded infield.

There are a few other interesting young hitters that CHONE projects as draftable, that I may take a look at later:

Jeff Clement (C – Sea) $7
Eric Young (2B – Col) $6
Chris Carter (OF – Bos) $5
Josh Anderson (OF – Atl) $5
Nate Schierholtz (OF – SF) $4
Steven Pearce (OF – Pit) $3
Seth Smith (OF – Col) $3
Oscar Salazar (1B – Bal) $3
Joaquin Arias (2B – Tex) $2
Garrett Jones (1B – Pit) $2
Eric Patterson (2B,OF – Oak) $1
Micah Hoffpauir (OF,1B – ChC) $1