Last Player Picked

In my last post, I developed a scenario in which the following trade was proposed in an NL-only fantasy league:

Prince Fielder $31
Geoff Jenkins $1
Aaron Miles $1

Casey Kotchman $13
Brian Giles $11
Felipe Lopez $9

(The dollar values are just what the Price Guide projects, and we are assuming they are equally accurate for all six baseball players.)

The basis for this trade comes from an excellent point that Victor made earlier this week at THT Fantasy Focus:

Let’s say that you trade three $10 players for one $30 player. A few things stick out about a trade like this. Just because 10+10+10=30, it doesn’t necessarily mean a trade like this is perfectly equal. For one thing, it is much easier to find a $10 player than a $30 player. However, this also means a $30 player is harder to replace. In other words, if a $30 player gets hurt, it will be much harder to replace that production than if one of the $10 players gets hurt.

Although our trade exchanges equal dollar values between the two teams, let’s explore how Victor’s other considerations should play into the decision.

True Replacement Level
Our theory of replacement level assumes that an undrafted fantasy player is worth $0. In real-life, however, this is not always the case. Every year there will be players who were not drafted who end up being worth far more than they had been projected.

Imagine what this might look like in our above scenario: Let’s suppose that a couple of weeks after the fantasy draft, J.J. Hardy fractures his ankle in a spring training game. The team announces that he is expected to miss at least half of the season.

No one in your league drafted Alcides Escobar, but it looks like he will take Hardy’s place as the starting SS for the Brewers. Judging by his minor league performance, Escobar hasn’t shown much power, but he has good speed and can steal some bases.

In our trade scenario above, one owner has Aaron Miles as a starting middle infielder; the other has (the somewhat superior) Felipe Lopez. Should either of our owners pick up Escobar?

If you have Aaron Miles, I think the decision is easy. You have a player on your roster with limited upside, so there’s very little risk in dropping Miles to make room for Escobar. There’s a good chance that Escobar will be just as good as Miles (and maybe better).

However, it’s a harder choice if you would have to drop Felipe Lopez. Lopez isn’t spectacular, but he could easily reach double digits in HR and SB, and that’s valuable for an NL-only fantasy league. If you drop him, someone will almost certainly pick him up (someone like our Aaron Miles owner).

Let’s say that at the end of the year Alcides Escobar turns out to be worth about $9. Our Kotchman/Giles/Lopez team doesn’t gain anything by picking up Escobar, as Lopez was also worth $9. However, the Fielder/Jenkins/Miles combination improves by $8 by upgrading Aaron Miles ($1).

Jump back to our original trade offer: What appeared to be an even trade of $33 for $33 turns out to be a trade of $41 for $33. In this case, you are better off keeping Fielder, because Aaron Miles is easily upgraded to a better player. It turns out that our replacement level ended up being higher than $1.

The Bottom Line: Flexibility
There is a definite advantage to trading for (or drafting) one star player and various $1 throw-ins: Those $1 players give you flexibility. You can take chances picking up other players — even if they turn out awful they aren’t really worse than what you started with, and there’s a possibility they will be much better.

With a balanced team, you are more limited. You are taking a serious risk if you drop an average player for an unknown quantity.

Victor at THT Fantasy Focus brings up the following point with regard to trades in fantasy baseball:

Let’s say that you trade three $10 players for one $30 player. A few things stick out about a trade like this. Just because 10+10+10=30, it doesn’t necessarily mean a trade like this is perfectly equal. For one thing, it is much easier to find a $10 player than a $30 player. However, this also means a $30 player is harder to replace. In other words, if a $30 player gets hurt, it will be much harder to replace that production than if one of the $10 players gets hurt.

I think there is some valuable insight here. Actually, there are concepts in this paragraph that I would like to explore in much greater detail.

Before we do, let’s do this: It helps me to envision a scenario when there are real players involved and not just dollar values. So, first off, why don’t we pretend that these players have names?

Let’s call Victor’s Thirty Dollar Player, “Prince.”

We’ll name the Ten Dollar Players “Casey,” “Brian,” and “Felipe.”

In fact, why don’t we fully develop this scenario?

You have just finished your NL-only fantasy draft. As people are packing up their laptops and draft essentials, other owners are just standing around, stretching their legs after hours of sitting hunched over their draft sheets. People compare teams, talking about whose lineup looks the best and how they really like so-and-so’s pitching staff.

Would you make this trade?

Do you see how this is no longer just trading three $10 players for a $30 player? These are players with names, and there is some actual context for you to consider.

Looking at the Price Guide’s projected values for those players in an NL-only fantasy league, this is essentially the same trade that Victor mentioned:

Prince Fielder $31
Geoff Jenkins $1
Aaron Miles $1

Casey Kotchman $13
Brian Giles $11
Felipe Lopez $9

Assuming that all six players have an equal probability of meeting their projections, that looks like a perfectly even trade. There is $33 in value moving to one team, and $33 coming in return.

However, we haven’t yet explored Victor’s additional considerations for a trade like this. I’ve gone on long enough just to set up this scenario, so I’ll expand on these points in a second post.