Projecting players’ future performances — the key element in determining whether to accept or reject a fantasy trade — is a very subjective matter, and predictions should vary wildly from person to person. If I want to make a trade, I don’t want to be overruled just because other owners have projections that vary from my own.

So, while I’m OK if people disagree with that stance, it’s nice to know that there are some people on my side. Here’s Ron Shandler’s take on trading:

You can’t expect every one of us to view and value players exactly the same way. You think BJ Upton is going to be the next super-stud; I think he is overrated. You think Gary Sheffield is done; I think he’s a valuable fourth outfielder. [...] We are all so different in our perceptions, and approaches, and our opinions about players, and that’s what makes this game so intriguing and challenging.

In my post, I suggested Jimmy Rollins for Khalil Greene as an over-the-top trade I wouldn’t veto. Shandler takes it a step further: defending the idea of trading Tim Lincecum for Michael Bourn!

The Flowering Barnacles trade Jimmy Rollins to the Anchorage Funnybones for Khalil Greene.

Let’s say your league requires a majority of owners to vote against a trade for it to be vetoed. Do you vote against this trade?

Obviously, it looks completely lopsided. A team is trading a clear top-tier player for a guy with five straight mediocre seasons under his belt. Both are SS, so there aren’t even any positional considerations (like one team trading from his surplus). It’s the most far-fetched example I can think of (that maintains at least a hint of plausibility), and yet I still don’t think I could bring myself to vote against it.

The reason is simple: I cannot be sure that Khalil Greene will be any worse than Jimmy Rollins in 2009. I know what they have done in the past, but, for next year, your guess is as good as mine. It is completely possible that Rollins will have an awful year, and Greene establishes himself as a first-round talent.

Every year there are early-round picks who end up being worth nothing at all, typically due to injury but not always. And every year there are undrafted players who launch themselves into the upper echelon. At this time last year, would you veto a trade of David Ortiz for Ryan Ludwick?

What if the guy who looks like he’s getting ripped off knows something I don’t? (It wouldn’t be the first time.) Maybe the guy who trades Rollins for Greene has a hunch that leaving Petco is just the change Greene needs to establish himself as an elite slugger. Maybe he has some inside info about Rollins’s ankle.

Right now everyone is caught up in the minutiae of ranking: “Should Rollins be ranked 9th or 10th?” In reality, either 9th or 10th could end up being way off; that’s just the nature of an unpredictable game.

If you vote against a trade because you think it is unfair, I think you are presuming to know much more than you really do.

Prince Fielder $31
Geoff Jenkins $1
Aaron Miles $1

Casey Kotchman $13
Brian Giles $11
Felipe Lopez $9

Part II looked at how the Fielder/Jenkins/Miles combination looked superior based on the roster flexibility that Jenkins and Miles give you. (That is, they can be dropped any time a better player becomes available.)

In Part III, I want to examine the last part of Victor’s statement:

[I]f a $30 player gets hurt, it will be much harder to replace that production than if one of the $10 players gets hurt.

That sounds reasonable, but the more I think about it, the more I disagree.

I don’t disagree with the actual statement–it’s obvious that you aren’t likely to find a $30 player off of free agency. No, I disagree because it leaves out a crucial detail: The $10 players are 3x as likely to get hurt as the $30 player.

Of course, the individual players aren’t 3x as likely to get hurt. But the chance of any of the three players missing time is three times as likely as Prince missing time.

In our scenario, if Prince gets hurt and misses the entire year, then that team is left with $3 of value ($1 for Jenkins, $1 for Miles, and $1 for Fielder’s replacement). If either Jenkins or Miles gets hurt, however, there is no detriment to the team:

Fielder injured: $3
Jenkins injured: $33
Miles injured: $33

Compare that to the other team:

Kotchman injured: $21
Giles injured: $23
Lopez injured: $25

Assuming that each player is as likely to suffer an injury as any other player, if the first team suffers a season-ending injury, it will finish with an average of $23 of value. On average, the second team will finish with the exact same $23. Both teams are affected the same by injuries (on average).

Here’s the only difference between the two: If the first team gets hit with injuries, there’s a chance they finish last, but there’s a chance they can still finish on top (depending on who is injured). If the second team faces injuries, they are in position to finish about 4th, no matter what.

Unless your league awards something for finishing 4th, you are better off with Prince Fielder and at least a chance at 1st.

Bringing It Together
So let’s combine this with what we learned in Part II: There is an advantage to choosing a star player plus replacement level players over choosing an all around balanced team, because the replacement level players give you the flexibility to find better players.

In Part III, we have seen that the risk of injury is the same for both teams. However, the “studs and scrubs” has a chance at surviving the injuries unscathed.

So why do people draft these middle-tier players?

The truth is that fantasy owners factor all of these things into their bidding (maybe unknowingly). I called Felipe Lopez a $9 player, but he would likely go for less than that at the auction. Why? Because owners understand they lose flexibility by picking average players, and so they aren’t willing to pay as much for them. The entire class of players who are worth about $5-$20 will probably go for $1-2 cheaper on average.

And where does that money go? To the top-tier players. Fantasy owners realize the advantages of drafting the star players, and so they are willing to spend a little extra. I listed Prince Fielder as being worth $33, but he could easily push his way into the upper $30’s. Owners figure they can spend an extra couple of bucks on the stars because they have a couple of $1 super-sleepers in mind for the end.

Even without knowing it, fantasy players are weighing all of these factors, and adjusting their bids accordingly.

Conclusion
That finishes up this look into some of the value considerations involved in fantasy trades. Are there any aspects I overlooked?

Prince Fielder $31
Geoff Jenkins $1
Aaron Miles $1

Casey Kotchman $13
Brian Giles $11
Felipe Lopez $9

(The dollar values are just what the Price Guide projects, and we are assuming they are equally accurate for all six baseball players.)

The basis for this trade comes from an excellent point that Victor made earlier this week at THT Fantasy Focus:

Let’s say that you trade three $10 players for one $30 player. A few things stick out about a trade like this. Just because 10+10+10=30, it doesn’t necessarily mean a trade like this is perfectly equal. For one thing, it is much easier to find a $10 player than a $30 player. However, this also means a $30 player is harder to replace. In other words, if a $30 player gets hurt, it will be much harder to replace that production than if one of the $10 players gets hurt.

Although our trade exchanges equal dollar values between the two teams, let’s explore how Victor’s other considerations should play into the decision.

True Replacement Level
Our theory of replacement level assumes that an undrafted fantasy player is worth $0. In real-life, however, this is not always the case. Every year there will be players who were not drafted who end up being worth far more than they had been projected.

Imagine what this might look like in our above scenario: Let’s suppose that a couple of weeks after the fantasy draft, J.J. Hardy fractures his ankle in a spring training game. The team announces that he is expected to miss at least half of the season.

No one in your league drafted Alcides Escobar, but it looks like he will take Hardy’s place as the starting SS for the Brewers. Judging by his minor league performance, Escobar hasn’t shown much power, but he has good speed and can steal some bases.

In our trade scenario above, one owner has Aaron Miles as a starting middle infielder; the other has (the somewhat superior) Felipe Lopez. Should either of our owners pick up Escobar?

If you have Aaron Miles, I think the decision is easy. You have a player on your roster with limited upside, so there’s very little risk in dropping Miles to make room for Escobar. There’s a good chance that Escobar will be just as good as Miles (and maybe better).

However, it’s a harder choice if you would have to drop Felipe Lopez. Lopez isn’t spectacular, but he could easily reach double digits in HR and SB, and that’s valuable for an NL-only fantasy league. If you drop him, someone will almost certainly pick him up (someone like our Aaron Miles owner).

Let’s say that at the end of the year Alcides Escobar turns out to be worth about $9. Our Kotchman/Giles/Lopez team doesn’t gain anything by picking up Escobar, as Lopez was also worth $9. However, the Fielder/Jenkins/Miles combination improves by $8 by upgrading Aaron Miles ($1).

Jump back to our original trade offer: What appeared to be an even trade of $33 for $33 turns out to be a trade of $41 for $33. In this case, you are better off keeping Fielder, because Aaron Miles is easily upgraded to a better player. It turns out that our replacement level ended up being higher than $1.

The Bottom Line: Flexibility
There is a definite advantage to trading for (or drafting) one star player and various $1 throw-ins: Those $1 players give you flexibility. You can take chances picking up other players — even if they turn out awful they aren’t really worse than what you started with, and there’s a possibility they will be much better.

With a balanced team, you are more limited. You are taking a serious risk if you drop an average player for an unknown quantity.

Let’s say that you trade three $10 players for one $30 player. A few things stick out about a trade like this. Just because 10+10+10=30, it doesn’t necessarily mean a trade like this is perfectly equal. For one thing, it is much easier to find a $10 player than a $30 player. However, this also means a $30 player is harder to replace. In other words, if a $30 player gets hurt, it will be much harder to replace that production than if one of the $10 players gets hurt.

I think there is some valuable insight here. Actually, there are concepts in this paragraph that I would like to explore in much greater detail.

Before we do, let’s do this: It helps me to envision a scenario when there are real players involved and not just dollar values. So, first off, why don’t we pretend that these players have names?

Let’s call Victor’s Thirty Dollar Player, “Prince.”

We’ll name the Ten Dollar Players “Casey,” “Brian,” and “Felipe.”

In fact, why don’t we fully develop this scenario?

You have just finished your NL-only fantasy draft. As people are packing up their laptops and draft essentials, other owners are just standing around, stretching their legs after hours of sitting hunched over their draft sheets. People compare teams, talking about whose lineup looks the best and how they really like so-and-so’s pitching staff.

Would you make this trade?

Do you see how this is no longer just trading three $10 players for a $30 player? These are players with names, and there is some actual context for you to consider.

Looking at the Price Guide’s projected values for those players in an NL-only fantasy league, this is essentially the same trade that Victor mentioned:

Prince Fielder $31
Geoff Jenkins $1
Aaron Miles $1

Casey Kotchman $13
Brian Giles $11
Felipe Lopez $9

Assuming that all six players have an equal probability of meeting their projections, that looks like a perfectly even trade. There is $33 in value moving to one team, and $33 coming in return.

However, we haven’t yet explored Victor’s additional considerations for a trade like this. I’ve gone on long enough just to set up this scenario, so I’ll expand on these points in a second post.