SubscribeEarlier, I looked at some young hitters that CHONE projected as being draft-worthy. Now let’s do the same thing for pitchers.
Firing up the Price Guide with the CHONE projections, you’ll notice that the first several interesting names that show up are players in Japan’s NPB league who are not likely to play MLB in 2009. Although a couple of those names might be worth remembering for the future, we’ll skip over Kyuji Fujikawa, Yu Darvish, Hisashi Iwakuma, and Mark Kroon for now.
Doing so leaves only three names on my list worth at least $1, and two of them are Japanese rookies who aren’t particularly young.
Keep in mind that good pitching is tougher to project than good hitting. Whereas CHONE identifies a dozen or so young hitters that it thinks can succeed in the majors, it can only find one young pitcher whom it likes.
That isn’t to say there won’t be several pitchers who come out of nowhere and find success in 2009. It’s just hard to predict who they will be.
Anyways, here are the three who show up:
Jason Motte (RP – StL) $6
With Jason Isringhausen gone from St. Louis, the speculation is ongoing about who will close for the Cardinals in 2009. Chris Perez looks impressive, but CHONE actually likes Motte quite a bit better (especially for fantasy). The thing that stands out about his projection is a simply dominant 10.8 K/9.
There’s a good chance that the Cardinals won’t pick either of Perez or Motte to close, instead signing a veteran like Trevor Hoffman. Even so, CHONE thinks Motte has value (and it isn’t projecting any saves).
Koji Uehara (SP) $3
Unlike the other NPB players that CHONE lists, Koji Uehara and Kenshin Kawakami are free agents who are both pursuing jobs with MLB teams.
CHONE projects Uehara as a RP, a role that he has been in for the past two years with the Yomiuri Giants. Out of the bullpen he looks similar to guys like Rafael Perez and Scot Shields — solid relievers who won’t make a splash in fantasy unless they are closing games. If Uehara lands somewhere that needs a closer, his potential fantasy earnings go up dramatically.
There’s also a chance that whatever team signs him will want to transition him back to starting.
UPDATE: Uehara ended up signing with the Baltimore Orioles after I wrote this article. Since the O’s have George Sherrill and Chris Ray available to finish off games, it looks like Uehara will get the opportunity to switch back to starting games. There’s an updated projection for him at BaseballProjection.com.
Kenshin Kawakami (SP) $1
Kawakami profiles well with Hiroki Kuroda, last season’s biggest name to cross the Pacific. Kuroda (despite a little inconsistency) put together a season that was worth a late draft pick, and Kawakami could match that 2008 line. Like Kuroda, Kawakami doesn’t have a lot of strikeout potential but can still manage a solid ERA and WHIP due to great control.
Some other guys that CHONE likes as bench players, if they get a chance in the bigs:
Eric Stultz (SP – LAD)
Jonathan Sanchez (SP – SF)
Dallas Braden (SP – Oak)
Josh Geer (SP – SD)
Mitch Talbot (SP – TB)
Matthew Maloney (SP – Cin)
Garrett Mock (SP – Was)
Chad Reineke (SP – SD)
Brian Mazone (SP – Phi)
Daniel McCutchen (SP – Pit)
P.J. Walters (SP – StL)
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