The question I’m trying to figure out is how to account for this in the draft. If Matt Wieters is undraftable, but I value him at $15 (and let’s assume I have a 100% chance of grabbing him), there’s not really any point in spending $2 to $14 drafting a catcher, right? I’m going to cut him anyway, so I might as well spend $1 on a replacement-level guy and allocate the remaining money toward higher-tiered players.

Then, whenever Wieters is called up and becomes available in the free agent pool, I cut my replacement-level guy and pick him up. My team essentially improves by $14. In contrast, if I spent say $12 on a catcher in the draft, I would still cut him and pick up Wieters, but my team would only improve by $3.

It all comes down to 1) what you predict the value of those quality undrafted free agents to be and 2) whether you can get them before somebody else does.