SubscribeIn Part I of this series on trading, I conjured up the following NL-only trade proposal:
Prince Fielder $31
Geoff Jenkins $1
Aaron Miles $1
Casey Kotchman $13
Brian Giles $11
Felipe Lopez $9
Part II looked at how the Fielder/Jenkins/Miles combination looked superior based on the roster flexibility that Jenkins and Miles give you. (That is, they can be dropped any time a better player becomes available.)
In Part III, I want to examine the last part of Victor’s statement:
[I]f a $30 player gets hurt, it will be much harder to replace that production than if one of the $10 players gets hurt.
That sounds reasonable, but the more I think about it, the more I disagree.
I don’t disagree with the actual statement–it’s obvious that you aren’t likely to find a $30 player off of free agency. No, I disagree because it leaves out a crucial detail: The $10 players are 3x as likely to get hurt as the $30 player.
Of course, the individual players aren’t 3x as likely to get hurt. But the chance of any of the three players missing time is three times as likely as Prince missing time.
In our scenario, if Prince gets hurt and misses the entire year, then that team is left with $3 of value ($1 for Jenkins, $1 for Miles, and $1 for Fielder’s replacement). If either Jenkins or Miles gets hurt, however, there is no detriment to the team:
Fielder injured: $3
Jenkins injured: $33
Miles injured: $33
Compare that to the other team:
Kotchman injured: $21
Giles injured: $23
Lopez injured: $25
Assuming that each player is as likely to suffer an injury as any other player, if the first team suffers a season-ending injury, it will finish with an average of $23 of value. On average, the second team will finish with the exact same $23. Both teams are affected the same by injuries (on average).
Here’s the only difference between the two: If the first team gets hit with injuries, there’s a chance they finish last, but there’s a chance they can still finish on top (depending on who is injured). If the second team faces injuries, they are in position to finish about 4th, no matter what.
Unless your league awards something for finishing 4th, you are better off with Prince Fielder and at least a chance at 1st.
Bringing It Together
So let’s combine this with what we learned in Part II: There is an advantage to choosing a star player plus replacement level players over choosing an all around balanced team, because the replacement level players give you the flexibility to find better players.
In Part III, we have seen that the risk of injury is the same for both teams. However, the “studs and scrubs” has a chance at surviving the injuries unscathed.
So why do people draft these middle-tier players?
The truth is that fantasy owners factor all of these things into their bidding (maybe unknowingly). I called Felipe Lopez a $9 player, but he would likely go for less than that at the auction. Why? Because owners understand they lose flexibility by picking average players, and so they aren’t willing to pay as much for them. The entire class of players who are worth about $5-$20 will probably go for $1-2 cheaper on average.
And where does that money go? To the top-tier players. Fantasy owners realize the advantages of drafting the star players, and so they are willing to spend a little extra. I listed Prince Fielder as being worth $33, but he could easily push his way into the upper $30’s. Owners figure they can spend an extra couple of bucks on the stars because they have a couple of $1 super-sleepers in mind for the end.
Even without knowing it, fantasy players are weighing all of these factors, and adjusting their bids accordingly.
Conclusion
That finishes up this look into some of the value considerations involved in fantasy trades. Are there any aspects I overlooked?
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Good stuff. I think things are even a bit more skewed toward having the more valuable player, because you minimize injury risk with the $1 players, as they are so easily replaced.
To put it another way, if there is a 10% chance of any given player getting hurt, then there is a 90% chance of him being healthy. So, the values of the two teams multiplied by the probability of the player reaching that value would be
Fielder .9 x $33 = $30
replacement guy $1
replacement guy $1
Total: $32
.9 x $13 = $12
.9 x $11 = $10
.9 x $9 = $8
Total: $30
Also, the chance that the Fielder team stays healthy are 90%, whereas the chance that the second team stays healthy are only 73% (.9 x .9 x .9)