Comments on: Does $10 + $10 + $10 = $30? (Part III) http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/does-10-10-10-30-part-iii/ Fantasy Baseball Dollar Values, Rankings, and Discussion Thu, 09 Sep 2010 13:39:55 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 By: Nick http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/does-10-10-10-30-part-iii/#comment-32 Nick Thu, 15 Jan 2009 00:00:14 +0000 http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/?p=210#comment-32 Good stuff. I think things are even a bit more skewed toward having the more valuable player, because you minimize injury risk with the $1 players, as they are so easily replaced. To put it another way, if there is a 10% chance of any given player getting hurt, then there is a 90% chance of him being healthy. So, the values of the two teams multiplied by the probability of the player reaching that value would be Fielder .9 x $33 = $30 replacement guy $1 replacement guy $1 Total: $32 .9 x $13 = $12 .9 x $11 = $10 .9 x $9 = $8 Total: $30 Also, the chance that the Fielder team stays healthy are 90%, whereas the chance that the second team stays healthy are only 73% (.9 x .9 x .9) Good stuff. I think things are even a bit more skewed toward having the more valuable player, because you minimize injury risk with the $1 players, as they are so easily replaced.

To put it another way, if there is a 10% chance of any given player getting hurt, then there is a 90% chance of him being healthy. So, the values of the two teams multiplied by the probability of the player reaching that value would be

Fielder .9 x $33 = $30
replacement guy $1
replacement guy $1
Total: $32

.9 x $13 = $12
.9 x $11 = $10
.9 x $9 = $8
Total: $30

Also, the chance that the Fielder team stays healthy are 90%, whereas the chance that the second team stays healthy are only 73% (.9 x .9 x .9)

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