SubscribeI like to think of the Price Guide on this site as offering a snapshot view of player values. It only captures the prices for a moment in time before the draft starts. Once the auction begins, prices also begin to shift higher and lower.
What can cause prices to change during an auction? I see a few possibilities:
A player below replacement level is drafted.
All it takes is someone bringing up Francisco Liriano or Daisuke Matsuzaka, not realizing that these are pitchers who are not expected to match their performances from a few years back. They are valued at a negative amount — below the replacement level for starting pitchers.
Every time this happens, the replacement level at that position moves up one player, and players at that position lose value. Basically, the supply of above-replacement pitchers has stayed the same, but the demand has dropped (as one less team needs to fill a spot).
A team overpays for a player.
The same dynamic deflation happens whenever someone overpays. Now there is less money than expected available, and prices for all players go down slightly.
A team underpays for a player.
The reverse of this has the opposite effect. If a team gets a bargain on a player, they now have extra money that must be spent on remaining players. Extra money drives prices up.
A team fills their roster with money left over.
Typically, any money that isn’t spent at an auction goes to waste. When a team finishes their roster, not only do you have one less bidder in the auction, but their remaining money disappears as well. Both of these factors will deflate prices for the remainder of the draft.
Are there any other factors that cause prices to go up or down during an auction?
Related posts:
The counter-force to someone drafting a player below replacement level is someone drafting two players who would each otherwise start for another team (i.e. 2 in the top 12 shortstops in a standard Yahoo league). They might do this to horde bargaining chips, for example. The effect is that replacement level gets pushed down one player, as the same number of teams still need to fill that position, but there is one fewer of the top talents to go around.
I would venture that one average, this happens about as often as someone drafting a player below replacement level (often the two happen in the same draft, for obvious reasons), thus reducing the effect that either has on overall values.
Mays
Are the Composite (adj) projections those where you have adjusted the saves totals and playing time?
@hankp101: Yes, what’s showing up as “2010 Composite (Adj.)” are the composite projections adjusted for playing time. At the moment, I’m just playing around with it, but you’re welcome to try it out. I’m going to post more details tomorrow.
I’ve adjusted save projections across all of the datasets that don’t otherwise project them.