SubscribeColby Lewis was probably my favorite sleeper coming into 2010. His signing with the Rangers from the Japanese NPB league was completely unnoticed by fantasy magazines. Yahoo had him ranked as the 339th best player for 2010 — irrelevant for mixed leagues. I’ve searched back through articles and posts from this winter, and I didn’t find much hype from Internet writers, either. (Consider the lack of optimism from this Fantasy Roundtable in early April, although even that was too late for drafting.)
Yet in January 2010, I wrote a post entitled “Johan Santana, Josh Beckett and…Colby Lewis” highlighting a projection that put Colby Lewis in the ballpark of those two perennial stars. Lewis was the most surprising name to me when I ran the initial CHONE projections through the Price Guide. CHONE predicted a 3.96 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 8.0 K/9 (although Sean later adjusted it more conservatively to account for Lewis’s poor MLB seasons from several years ago).
Although my post was not as strong a recommendation as that title makes it sound, I did conclude with this line:
Even using the more pessimistic ZiPS, I feel pretty good about paying at least $5-6 for Colby Lewis. At that price, it’s not a big deal to cut him if he doesn’t work out. If it turns out CHONE is right, then that’s a cheap bet that could pay huge dividends.
Basically, Colby Lewis is the kind of risk you take that helps win your league. He offered little downside as a late round, $1 pick, and he had plenty of upside. That $1 pick has (to date) netted about $12 of value in a standard league in 2010, and great keeper value for 2011 and beyond.
What are the lessons here?
Pay attention to NPB stars coming to MLB.
Sure, everyone notices guys like Daisuke Matsuzaka and their huge posting fees. Watch for guys (like Hiroki Kuroda recently) who might not project as stars but who do look like fantasy contributors, especially since these guys will come so much cheaper at the draft than the Matsuzakas will. Note: As in the case of Lewis, the guys without Japanese-sounding names may even get less attention.
Don’t be afraid to use your final picks on high-upside players
At the end of the draft, you are basically just rounding out your roster or filling your bench. You can target reliable veterans — maybe this year it would be guys like Vicente Padilla or Tim Wakefield — who have clear flaws but don’t project to be horrendous. Or, you can take a gamble on a player who might be terrible, but who also has a good chance of turning a profit.
At 2010 drafts, guys like Colby Lewis were the exact kind of sleeper to target if you wanted endgame players who could push you towards a winning season.
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thanks to you, i drafted lewis everywhere and at $1 he’s on my short list of keepers for my final two spots.