I’ve not gotten as advanced as this is, but my goal has always been to get a sense of how my own player projections might alter their value–and now I have a way to do that.

This is fascinating stuff, and I’m glad you’ve taken the time to do this.

Have you given any thought to a draft spreadsheet? Last year a guy made one that worked very well at NineBoJacksons.com. The site is now gone, but he produced a couple spreadsheets that I found very helpful.

John

http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/priceguide/index.php?t=4&l=NL&m=260&b=1&ds=09M&dis=250&AVG=Y&R=Y&RBI=Y&HR=Y&SB=Y&W=Y&S=Y&ERA=Y&WHIP=Y&K=Y&C=1&1B=1&2B=1&3B=1&SS=1&OF=3&LF=0&CF=0&RF=0&CI=0&MI=0&Util=0&mg=20&SP=5&RP=2&P=0&ms=5&mr=5

The SS replacement level is -3.23 (Tejada) and the 2B replacement level is very close at -3.63 (Kelly Johnson). However, if you look at positional averages, the SS avg is .765 while 2B is substantially lower at -1.3. That’s a difference of more than 2 using the positional average, as opposed to only .4 using replacement as a baseline.

So wouldn’t the baseline make a difference in an extreme case like this, or did I mess up somewhere?

I don’t want to give away tomorrow’s results, but I can assure you that RotoTimes did not do well.

@Nick: Using the average player or the replacement player as a baseline should give the same results, because either way you’re subtracting a constant from all of the players at a position. You could use 10 million as your baseline, and, since you adjust every player by that same amount, they are still the same in relation to each other.

The only reason I use replacement level is that it allows you to figure dollar values, based on a $1 replacement level player.

I would also add that in a real draft, while you need a baseline to account for differences in position, what we’re really after is marginal value compared to the remaining players at each position. it’s all about marginal value, not necessarily points above replacement or average. I think your simulation here is great for what it is aiming to do, however.

Second, it’s really no surprise that your Price Guide team cleaned up. I’ve always known the various rating systems you’re “competing” against have been terrible and don’t adjust for position. I’m not sure why they have never been changed when they are so obviously wrong! Any system that properly adjusts for position is going to easily sweep these player raters.

I’ve probably had the most experience looking at the RotoTimes rater and I’m positive it’s terrible, with no positional adjustment whatsoever. I’m curious how the Point Shares system stacks up.