Comments on: How did LIMA Pitchers Do in 2009?

By: Mays

Mays — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 13:14:46 +0000

Here’s another one (I’m throwing these numbers together quickly, so there may be some minor errors. I think the point stands, regardless.)

There were 22 pitchers (out of the 72 projected above replacment) that beat their projection in 2009. That’s about 31%, and that’s including these LIMA pitchers. Throw out the 12 LIMAs above replacement, and it’s 23% (14 of 60).

Of these LIMA pitchers, 8 of 12 were projected above replacement and beat their projection. That’s 67%.

So:

Non-LIMA – 23% of SP beat projections
LIMA – 67% of SP beat projections
Total population – 31% of SP beat projections

By: Mays

Mays — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 13:01:31 +0000

@rwperu34: Consider this:

Let’s work with the pool of 72 SP that were projected above replacement level in 2009. The projected value for those 72 pitchers was $888, or $12 apiece.

In reality, they returned $468, or $7 per SP. (The other $400 or so in actual value came from pitchers projected below $1.)

So the population as a whole loses about $5 each, while this segment of 17 LIMA pitchers gains $4 each.

By: rwperu34

rwperu34 — Tue, 02 Feb 2010 23:03:56 +0000

I don’t know how much of a conclusion that you can draw from this list without comparing it to a control group.

By: Mays

Mays — Tue, 02 Feb 2010 20:58:56 +0000

@HustlinOwl: Jackson had occasionally flashed good strikeout rates, but the 5.30 K/9 that he put up in 2008 wasn’t good enough to meet the LIMA qualifications. He’s also been too homer-prone (the cutoff is 1.00 HR/9) throughout his career, including in 2009.

But LIMA’s not trying to identify the conditions surrounding every breakout pitcher; it’s trying to just form a small set that’s likely to improve.

By: Mays

Mays — Tue, 02 Feb 2010 20:55:46 +0000

@Molson: The hard thing about Lester and Danks is that it seemed most observers (other than the projections here) expected them to improve or at least maintain their 2008 seasons. The projections, on the other hand, couldn’t get past poor 2007 seasons and predicted both of them to get worse.

By: HustlinOwl

HustlinOwl — Tue, 02 Feb 2010 20:15:13 +0000

Surprising that Edwin Jackson is not on this list, I was able to get him and De La Rosa for $1 each last year.

By: Molson

Molson — Tue, 02 Feb 2010 18:42:20 +0000

I think it’s also important to remember that Lester and Danks were hard to project last year. Lester due mostly to a poor sample size and Danks due to a change in his pitching style.

There’s a lesson there in thinking about how you look at the projections. Danks did pretty much what he did in ‘08, and Lester continued his ‘08 growth in coming back from cancer.