Comments on: How the Price Guide Works, Part I (Standard Scores) http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/how-the-price-guide-works-part-i-standard-scores/ Fantasy Baseball Dollar Values, Rankings, and Discussion Thu, 09 Feb 2012 00:33:28 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Brent http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/how-the-price-guide-works-part-i-standard-scores/#comment-9554 Brent Mon, 06 Feb 2012 18:45:55 +0000 http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/?p=67#comment-9554 Interesting when I ran a 10 team NL-only 5x5, the model suggested the optimal mix was 32% on pitching. When I changed to a 4x4 format, all else constant, the model recommended spending 40% on pitching. Not sure if that's just a random issue with the players in this year's pool, or something more systematic. Any ideas why pitchers would be more valuable in 4x4? Its true for both closers and starters. Interesting when I ran a 10 team NL-only 5×5, the model suggested the optimal mix was 32% on pitching. When I changed to a 4×4 format, all else constant, the model recommended spending 40% on pitching. Not sure if that’s just a random issue with the players in this year’s pool, or something more systematic. Any ideas why pitchers would be more valuable in 4×4? Its true for both closers and starters.

]]> By: Adam http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/how-the-price-guide-works-part-i-standard-scores/#comment-9480 Adam Wed, 14 Dec 2011 17:14:51 +0000 http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/?p=67#comment-9480 I am not a mathematician, but this seems like some of the best statistical analysis I have seen in my 27 years playing roto, with auctions. It appears negative or zero values indicate a players performance in that category is below the average (or is it SD) of that category. I look forward to 2012 discussions I am not a mathematician, but this seems like some of the best statistical analysis I have seen in my 27 years playing roto, with auctions.

It appears negative or zero values indicate a players performance in that category is below the average (or is it SD) of that category.

I look forward to 2012 discussions

]]> By: nacher http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/how-the-price-guide-works-part-i-standard-scores/#comment-9303 nacher Mon, 28 Mar 2011 07:25:57 +0000 http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/?p=67#comment-9303 Wondering why some players have zero or negative values. Thanks need help Wondering why some players have zero or negative values. Thanks need help

]]> By: MattD http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/how-the-price-guide-works-part-i-standard-scores/#comment-9090 MattD Mon, 14 Mar 2011 22:41:41 +0000 http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/?p=67#comment-9090 Hello and thanks for your work. Not sure if discussion is still happening here but in case it is... How are you determining your standard deviations -- from the projections or from empirical data? It seems like you're computing it from the projections, and I don't think that's the right choice. Systems regress player projections towards the averages of the underlying player population, so the standard deviations from projected stats will be smaller than empirical values. To see why we should prefer the empirical values, consider the following hypothetical: Imagine a league in which the hitters all have true talent level batting averages between .275 and .277, but (because of whatever hypothetical scenario you like) yearly batting averages vary often and wildly -- the .275 hitters often hit .175, or .375, etc. In other words, imagine that BA in this league is very much a crapshoot. Imagine we have a really good projection system that nails these hitters' averages down between .275 and .277. The SD of the projections would be very small. On the other hand, the SD of the actual BA's would be very large. Using the SD of the projections, the Price Guide method would place a premium on BA. Using the empirical SD, it would place little weight on BA. The latter would be the better result. Since BA in such a league would be a crapshoot, each point of mean projected BA should be worth very little. Of course we don't know the SD's for 2011 until after the season, but I would expect that using the 2010 values would be good enough. Hello and thanks for your work. Not sure if discussion is still happening here but in case it is…

How are you determining your standard deviations — from the projections or from empirical data? It seems like you’re computing it from the projections, and I don’t think that’s the right choice.

Systems regress player projections towards the averages of the underlying player population, so the standard deviations from projected stats will be smaller than empirical values.

To see why we should prefer the empirical values, consider the following hypothetical:

Imagine a league in which the hitters all have true talent level batting averages between .275 and .277, but (because of whatever hypothetical scenario you like) yearly batting averages vary often and wildly — the .275 hitters often hit .175, or .375, etc. In other words, imagine that BA in this league is very much a crapshoot. Imagine we have a really good projection system that nails these hitters’ averages down between .275 and .277.
The SD of the projections would be very small. On the other hand, the SD of the actual BA’s would be very large.
Using the SD of the projections, the Price Guide method would place a premium on BA.
Using the empirical SD, it would place little weight on BA.
The latter would be the better result. Since BA in such a league would be a crapshoot, each point of mean projected BA should be worth very little.

Of course we don’t know the SD’s for 2011 until after the season, but I would expect that using the 2010 values would be good enough.

]]> By: Jbird669 http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/how-the-price-guide-works-part-i-standard-scores/#comment-8653 Jbird669 Mon, 07 Feb 2011 13:58:13 +0000 http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/?p=67#comment-8653 First of all, this is a very neat tool. Secondly, how do you adjust this is you draft bench players as well as starters? Our auction has us draft 11 hitters and 9 pitchers into the starting lineup, and 5 bench players (any position). How would that change my valuation method? First of all, this is a very neat tool. Secondly, how do you adjust this is you draft bench players as well as starters? Our auction has us draft 11 hitters and 9 pitchers into the starting lineup, and 5 bench players (any position). How would that change my valuation method?

]]> By: Rokka http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/how-the-price-guide-works-part-i-standard-scores/#comment-7177 Rokka Mon, 22 Mar 2010 23:30:30 +0000 http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/?p=67#comment-7177 Much appreciated, this info is awesome. Much appreciated, this info is awesome.

]]> By: Molson http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/how-the-price-guide-works-part-i-standard-scores/#comment-7174 Molson Mon, 22 Mar 2010 20:26:24 +0000 http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/?p=67#comment-7174 Mays - I wonder if we couldn't get a more accurate value on pitchers by using a separate average ERA for starters and relievers. Thoughts? Mays – I wonder if we couldn’t get a more accurate value on pitchers by using a separate average ERA for starters and relievers.

Thoughts?

]]> By: Molson http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/how-the-price-guide-works-part-i-standard-scores/#comment-7173 Molson Mon, 22 Mar 2010 20:23:01 +0000 http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/?p=67#comment-7173 If it helps, you can think of it as "xER" and "xWH" rather than "xERA" and "xWHIP." xERA is the expected number of earned runs given up below what the number of earned runs given up would be for the average pitcher under the same number of IP. If the average ERA is 3.81, and Lincecum is projected to have a 2.85 ERA in 218 IP, his xERA is (avgERA-playerERA)*IP/9=(3.81-2.85)*218/9=23.25. If it helps, you can think of it as “xER” and “xWH” rather than “xERA” and “xWHIP.”

xERA is the expected number of earned runs given up below what the number of earned runs given up would be for the average pitcher under the same number of IP.

If the average ERA is 3.81, and Lincecum is projected to have a 2.85 ERA in 218 IP, his xERA is (avgERA-playerERA)*IP/9=(3.81-2.85)*218/9=23.25.

]]> By: Rokka http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/how-the-price-guide-works-part-i-standard-scores/#comment-7170 Rokka Mon, 22 Mar 2010 18:37:13 +0000 http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/?p=67#comment-7170 Can someone explain to me how he got xERA and xWHIP...For some reason I cannot get that correct because lower ERA and WHIP numbers are better. Any help would be appreciated. Can someone explain to me how he got xERA and xWHIP…For some reason I cannot get that correct because lower ERA and WHIP numbers are better. Any help would be appreciated.

]]> By: Chris Callahan http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/how-the-price-guide-works-part-i-standard-scores/#comment-6246 Chris Callahan Mon, 01 Feb 2010 00:33:53 +0000 http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/?p=67#comment-6246 This is exactly what I was looking for. We use the Sporting News for our prices, but, they are for a 5X5 league that does not include Losses or OBP. I am in a 6X6 retention league. Your site does a wonderful job in telling the bargains, pitchers that don't get many L's and hitters with high OBP(On base plus slugging). Please don't tell anyone else in my league about this:) This is exactly what I was looking for. We use the Sporting News for our prices, but, they are for a 5X5 league that does not include Losses or OBP. I am in a 6X6 retention league. Your site does a wonderful job in telling the bargains, pitchers that don’t get many L’s and hitters with high OBP(On base plus slugging). Please don’t tell anyone else in my league about this:)

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