SubscribeI’ve been doing some Yahoo mock-auctions lately in preparation for a real auction in a few weeks. It’s nice to be prepared and to already be familiar with the draft software before draft day.
There’s one factor that I think can give you an incredible edge on a Yahoo auction: Knowing Yahoo’s prices. Yahoo’s prices are displayed for each player that is brought up for bidding. It acts as an incredible price control — people are unwilling to stray too far from Yahoo’s recommendation. And this is an opportunity to leverage the situation.
Here are my four rules for dominating a Yahoo auction:
1. Configure the Price Guide for Yahoo leagues. The Price Guide can build values for any league, so you need to make sure it’s customized correctly for a Yahoo auction. Yahoo’s $260 cap includes 5 bench players, so I’d drop that down in the Price Guide (which only values starters) to $250 or $255. Yahoo leagues only do 1 C, no CI or MI, and 2 Util.
On the pitching side, Yahoo starts 2 SP, 2 RP, and 4 P. I think 5 SP and 3 RP gives a pretty good approximation. I also set a custom hitter/pitcher split to tone down the values for pitchers — 60/40 seems to be pretty close. This should be pretty close to what you need.
2. Be willing to spend on top-tier talent. Yahoo’s suggested values top out at $37. The Price Guide has no problem spending $50+ on Hanley and Pujols. It is quite realistic to end up with 4-5 guys who would typically be 1st or 2nd rounders.
3. Nominate guys that Yahoo overvalues. Once you’ve spent all your money on the best talent, it’s time to sit back and wait a while. Having spent lots of your money in Step 2, it’s time to help others spend their’s.
If there’s anyone autopicking in your draft, they will usually jump up to Yahoo’s recommended bid whenever they can. If there’s anyone that Yahoo has ranked higher than you do, you can easily clear some cash from the room.
All you have to do is nominate someone that Yahoo has ranked highly that you don’t want. It won’t take long for an autopicker to jump on it. Some names that worked well for me:
Rick Porcello
Garrett Jones
Jorge Cantu
Curtis Granderson
Elvis Andrus
Mark Teahen
Neftali Feliz
Ubaldo Jimenez
Gavin Floyd
Jason Bartlett
Aaron Hill
John Danks
Orlando Cabrera
Chris Coghlan
Kendry Morales
Ichiro Suzuki
Brandon Phillips
Andrew Bailey
Nyjer Morgan
Ryan Theriot
None of those are guys that the projections here think very highly of. And even if you don’t have anyone autopicking, your league is unlikely to resist the pull of Yahoo’s rankings. It’s unlikely that you will win any of those guys with a $1 bid.
4. Look for bargains where Yahoo’s prices are too low. As mentioned before, Yahoo doesn’t have the top-tier high enough, so don’t be afraid to get several guys in the $30-40′s. Yahoo is also really down on RP: Trevor Hoffman for $3? Bobby Jenks isn’t even ranked above replacement.
As your league is filling up on the trash you’re bringing up in Step 3, keep an eye out for potential bargains that you can get with the money you have left. Following the Price Guide, these are some guys you could be targeting:
Vladimir Guerrero*
Javier Vazquez
Mike Napoli
Hiroki Kuroda
Jonathan Broxton
Billy Wagner
Ryan Ludwick
Matt Holliday
Lance Berkman
Russell Martin
Ted Lilly
Trevor Hoffman
Carlos Quentin
Heath Bell
Johan Santana
Hanley Ramirez
Jay Bruce
Jair Jurrjens
Tim Hudson
Jose Reyes
Manny Ramirez
Albert Pujols
* Vlad only qualifies at Util, but Yahoo has two Util spots this year. Guerrero under $10 looks like a great deal in this format.
Are there any other strategies you’ve found for Yahoo’s auctions?
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Another great article and strategy. I’m curious what the advantage is of using the Yahoo rankings vs. the composite projections, since they are supposed to be even more accurate. Also, how could this be applied to a snake draft?
so you trust the Manny projections? As far as I know, most of the systems have autoregressive terms in them and so I’m always scared about players on the decline like Manny. I know they should control for age (I even think Marcel does this) but he has been a player I’ve had the toughest time figuring out what to expect from him this year. This is a guy who put up his first sub-400 wOBA since 1994! And he hopefully no longer uses steroids.
Very striking when a player says he is done with baseball (until presumably his agent called him to talk some sense into him)
@Rick: The rankings between here and Yahoo are pretty close. The main difference appears to be that Yahoo puts more weight on 2009, and the projections here look deeper into a player’s history. So guys that had a down 2009 (Guerrero, Quentin, Ludwick, etc.), Yahoo tends to (IMO) underrate. I also think they overrate good 2009′s from guys like Aaron Hill and Kendry Morales.
Yahoo is also higher (too high, IMO) on some young players — Andrus, Porcello, and Garrett Jones above. The projections — incorporating their minor league stats — are much more cautious.
For a snake draft, the strategy would be simpler. I would find Yahoo’s rank for each player and put it beside the Price Guide’s rankings. If the Yahoo rank is much lower, I can probably hold off a round or two to draft a certain player, knowing that other drafters may be hesitant to stray too far from Yahoo’s order.
@John K: I think the Manny composite projection may be a little optimistic ($21 for Yahoo settings), but I think Yahoo’s ranking ($13) is way too low.
I’ve heard the problem last year wasn’t the steroids; it was a HBP on his hand shortly after he returned from his suspension. Assuming he is recovered, I think a bounceback is realistic. And despite a possible injury, he was on pace for 30 HR. Even with age decline, I don’t see why homeruns in the upper 20′s wouldn’t be probable this year.
RBI and runs should be plentiful with Kemp and Ethier. If I can get Manny for $15 in a Yahoo league, I’m all over it.
So what about ESPN, since that is where I and my trash taking friends play!
Right, definitely agree that 13 is too low, thanks.
In how many leagues do you participate and are you a member of any expert leagues?
@Shareef: My intention was to cover CBS next, but their auto-pickers were a disaster. Mocks are a huge time commitment, but I’ll see if I can get around to ESPN’s.
@John K: I participate in three main leagues and an occasional public league or two. I don’t see myself as any kind of expert, so no tout leagues for me. Three is probably the most I could handle, anyway.
Great article that I find very helpful. My question is why just use a starting lineup with the Price guide? Why not use the Util and P positions to fill the BN players yahoo has. For example I normally use an extra 3 util and 2 P to represent the 5 BN spots yahoo has. This way the Money and players drafted according to the price guide match the money and number of players drafted in the league.
My other question is about why relief pitchers are so valuable with the price guide, which might be rightfully so. Does the price guide take in effect the innings pitched for ERA and WHIP? Obviously a typical starter will effect a fantasy team’s ERA and WHIP almost 3 times as much as a relief pitcher. Assuming about 200 innings vs 70 innings.
Thanks
>Does the price guide take in effect the innings pitched for ERA and WHIP?
Yes, it does. What it doesn’t take into account is the fact that most owners will sacrifice ERA and WHIP to improve their counting stats.
I am in an auction league that uses h-t-h points rather than roto… any chance you can set up your site to handle that anytime soon?
Does The Price Guide account for bench spots when it shoots out dollar values? Having an extra five roster spots (or not) accounted for in, for instance, a Yahoo! league would effect the dollar values by around 20%.