SubscribeOne of the most exciting parts about baseball projections are the projections for the minor leaguers. Here we get a chance to see what just about every professional player could do if he were given a full season in the majors.
For the most part, translating the stats for minor league players shows that even the best prospects wouldn’t be impact players for fantasy. The one skill that translates well to the majors is speed, and so there are quite a few young players that look like they could steal 30-60 bases if given a chance in the majors.
Looking over the current values on the Price Guide, here are a few names that stand out as SB-threats:
Eric Young (2B, OF – COL)
CHONE thinks Eric Young Jr. could nab 39 bases in 2010, while CAIRO puts him down for 52! (ZiPS splits the difference with 45 SB.) He is coming off a 58 SB year in Triple-A, so those numbers are quite attainable.
His fantasy value is also aided by playing in Colorado and by being eligible at middle infield. Both projections have him as about an $18 player this year in standard leagues, in the ballpark of guys like Evan Longoria, Lance Berkman, and B.J. Upton. I’m trying to temper my expectations, but that would be incredible.
Best of all, it looks like he’s going to be given the chance to start 2010 with the big-league club as a utility player (2B, 3B, and OF). That was a role that worked well last year for Ian Stewart (who, as projected, quietly put up a solid fantasy season in 2009).
Stewart also played a valuable role as the Player Most Likely to be on My Fantasy Teams, and I’m guessing that Eric Young will play that part this year. For lots of steals without killing the other categories and great positional eligibility I’m ready to go into double-digits for Young. I doubt anyone will be pushing me up to $20, but the projections think he will be worth it even so.
Julio Borbon (OF – TEX)
Julio Borbon is another speedy player that the projections love. He’s pegged for 34 (CHONE), 35 (CAIRO), or 41 (ZiPS) SB. He’s not yet expected to be the hitter that Young is, so his projected fantasy value is around the upper single-digits.
The big impact for Borbon is the Cubs signing Marlon Byrd to a 3/$15 deal this offseason, which frees up a spot in the Texas OF for Borbon. The current plan is for him to be the starting CF and leadoff hitter for the Rangers, and that could be very good for his fantasy value.
Michael Brantley (OF – CLE)
Michael Brantley’s name may be familiar as one of the prospects Milwaukee gave up for their late-season rental of CC Sabathia back in 2008. There’s a possibility that he is the starting LF for the Indians in 2010, and that would give him a chance at 30+ SB. The rest of his game is not quite fantasy-worthy, but he could be a valuable guy on the bench and as a keeper after this year.
Eric Patterson (2B, OF – OAK)
Patterson could be a 10-30 player in 2010 — basically Shane Victorino with less batting average. It’s not clear yet if the A’s have a place for him (and his questionable defense) on the diamond. Depending on how things are looking this spring, he could be worth a late flier.
Other possibilities for 30+ stolen bases don’t look like they offer enough with the bat to get a starting gig with a major-league team. Some names for those who are panning for gold include:
Eugenio Velez (2B, OF – SF)
Freddy Guzman (OF – NYY)
Jason Bourgeois (OF – HOU)
Tony Campana (OF – CHC)
Josh Anderson (OF – CIN)
Eric Farris (2B – MIL)
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Eric Young Jr. looks very interesting but I think it’s too early to judge him right now. For some reason the computer projections seem to be giving him a lot of playing time (509 ABs). Will he really get it though? The Rockies’ OF is already overcrowded and he has to contend with Barmes at 2nd. For the record, so far the FanGraphs fans have him getting only 399 ABs, and so far I’ve found their projections to be quite optimistic in comparison to the conputers. If you reduce his ABs to 400 and proportionally adjust his other counting stats I have his value going from $16 all the way down to $7. I think right now caution is the word until we have a better idea about his playing time.
The Fans Projections at FanGraphs do seem optimistic, but their playing time estimates look to be more realistic for many players than the assorted “expert” projections. Young’s playing time is a big question mark, though, so it’s a guess at this point.
@Toffer Peak: Even if he’s only worth $7 due to a lack of playing time, I bet there are a lot of leagues where he’ll still cost less. It will be interesting to see how the situation develops this spring.
@BobbyRoberto: I agree about the Fan Projections: They seem good for situational stats like AB, but are probably not regressed as much as they should be for other stats. 400 AB seems reasonable for a decent utility guy.