Pfew.

For a moment, I thought one of us had gone insane. ;)

(And yes, we have some sort of +$5 system.)

I’ll go as far as to say, if you give a team Hanley, Reyes, Wright, A-Rod, Pujols, and $60, that team is a heavy favorite to win and finshes in the top three 90% of the time.

If everyone had perfect dollar values and one team overpays by $4 on everyone while the other teams stuck to the values, I have no doubt that first team would be on the bottom.

Now, it can make sense to adjust the replacement level, but I would do it for a different reason:

Near the bottom of the draft pool, teams will have more disagreement about prices. A guy you have listed for $6 might go for $1. Someone else whom you rank below replacement level might go for $2.

This disagreement frees up a little extra money, money that should probably be worked in to the inflation rate.

If your league lets teams keep players for multiple years (even with some sort of +$5 system), you are correct that it is not unrealistic to expect that kind of inflation.

My guess is, for all the teams to end up with equal value, you’ll have to overspend by $3-$4 on the top players. That’s 10%-15% inflation in a non keeper league that’s looking back (ie no wiaver guys turning into $5 players). Of course you could end up in a league where everybody decided they are going to pay $5 less no matter what. In that case, you get to buy for $4 less and the beating would be even more violent.

In order to insure you get all the money spent, you overpay for the guys at the top. A guy in my league year in and year out will end up with $20-$30 left on the table at the end of the draft. Every year, he says the same thing. “Instead of buying that $20 player for $20, I should have spent $40 on that $30 player.”

The biggest “problem” with our $values is, we underestimate replacement level. There is a big difference in looking backwards in October than looking forward in March. In October, if you draft that guy, you get that production. In March, that’s not true. That guy with the $1 OF will have at least a $5 player in there by the middle of May. That guy that drafted the $1 pitcher is going to get at least $10 worth of value by rotating two start pitchers, good matchup starters, and middle relievers. Or by just taking dominant starters that didn’t have enough innings. Using the performance model will make things a little closer, but still not nearly accurate.

Perhaps the solution is to adjust replacement level? If I set the replacement level higher by 2 pts, then the top player had 47% inflation. Break even was ~$20 and 38 players dropped out, losing over $100 in value.

Morneau’s value depends on if you think his 2009 performance will more closely resemble 2008 or 2007. A $20 projection assumes that he will be somewhere in between those two.

However, your comparison is a false one: You make it sound like the choice is Wright + A.Gonzalez vs. Morneau + Rolen. But you leave out how that second scenario still has the $42 you didn’t spend on Wright. Even if you missed out on Wright, you are still going to spend the money elsewhere. As long as that money is spent on $42 of value, you are going to come out better by keeping Morneau.

Dollar values (and not just mine, either) have to assume that the auction is an efficient market. For them to be accurate:

a) Everyone must spend most of their money.
b) Every player must be bought for close to their projected price.

As those assumptions are violated, the projected values become less and less meaningful.

How many players are there of Wright’s caliber, not quite half a dozen? Also to a very minor extent at his position.

How many are in that $20 range for Morneau. Something around 20, 25 of them? Many of them 1b already.

There is something to be said for going to the draft and not having to worry about Wright because you own him. If someone else comes in and wants Wright and you get outbid your plan B is a far worse option.

If you lose out on Morneau you go get Adrian Gonzalez, Derrek Lee, Travis Hafner, etc (and really Morneau as a $20 player in a mixed league?)

That reduces your threshold considerably. Probably from that 27% to around 15% (which many leagues have).

At the end of the day it is who you have on your roster. Your roster looks better with Wright and a Morneau clone than it does with Morneau and Scott Rolen.