Last Player Picked

In the first part of my look at LIMA, I grouped the pitchers who met the qualifications based on what was projected for them in 2009. There were two pitchers in the group who were projected for a significant decline — John Danks and Jon Lester. If LIMA is supposed to identify pitchers who are about to break out, then what’s going on with these two?

The Price Guide valued both Danks and Lester at about $13 last year in a standard league. For 2009, the composite projections here put them at $2 and $1, respectively! The opinion is unanimous: CHONE, CAIRO, and ZiPs all see Danks and Lester adding at least one run to their ERAs.

So what’s going on with these two players? Looking at the usual suspects — such as BABIP — doesn’t reveal anything out of the ordinary. As LIMA points out, both of them had solid peripherals. They were both top prospects coming up through the minors, so their success in 2008 wasn’t completely surprising.

So why do the projections hate these guys? I think the answer is simple: Track record.

Both of these pitchers were fantastic in 2008, but there was nothing impressive about their major league careers before that. Danks managed a 5.50 ERA in 139 IP in 2007. Lester had pitched 144 innings at a 4.68 ERA up to that point in his career. While it’s possible that their future performance will mirror what they did in 2008, it’s also possible that it reverts closer to what they had done in the past.

Admittedly, the projections are ignorant of some changes in skill that can result in a true rise in performance level. If a pitcher improves aftern learning a new pitch (as was the case for both Danks and Lester), the projections won’t acknowledge that the player’s history isn’t necessarily indicative of his current abilities.

So I’m not personally convinced by the projections regarding these two pitchers. However, the pessimistic forecasts do give me enough pause that I don’t see myself going into double-digits for these players, and that probably ensures that Danks and Lester won’t land on any of my teams.

Related posts:

• LIMA, Part VI (Concluding Thoughts)
• 2010’s LIMA Candidates
• LIMA, Part V (The Rest)
• How did LIMA Pitchers Do in 2009?
• LIMA, Part IV: Truly Low Investments