SubscribeThe second group of LIMA pitchers that I want to look at are guys who meet the LIMA qualifications, but aren’t necessarily cheap enough to fit with the LIMA plan. They are widely regarded as good pitchers, but various problems in 2008 may depress their value. These flaws include wins (Cain and Hernandez), ERA (Beckett and Burnett), or IP (Chamberlain).
Matt Cain (2008: $2; 2009: $18)
Despite garnering only 8 wins last year, Cain was still a very good pitcher. Assuming his luck turns around in 2009, he could find himself back in the upper-middle class of pitchers with John Lackey, Derek Lowe, and Scott Kazmir.
For all of the people marking down 20 wins for Tim Lincecum: If Lincecum can get wins on the Giants, why can’t Cain? The Giants look to have improved in 2009, especially in the bullpen. The composite projections put Matt Cain down for 12 wins next year and a $16 gain in value from 2008.
Josh Beckett (2008: $10; 2009: $22)
Beckett’s ERAs in even years: 4.10, 3.79, 5.01, 4.03
Beckett’s ERAs in odd years: 1.50, 3.04, 3.38, 3.27
Do I think it means anything for 2009? Not really. However, it does indicate that he hasn’t been the most consistent pitcher the last few years.
It does look like he pitched better last year than his 4.00 ERA would indicate. Of course, enough people will remember his good years that I don’t really expect Beckett to be that big of a bargain. The Price Guide thinks he can improve on his 2008 by $12.
Felix Hernandez (2008: $4; 2009: $16)
Like Cain, Felix Hernandez’s low value last year came from poor run support (9 wins) and a high WHIP (1.39). The WHIP has always been a problem for him, but there’s no reason to expect him to only manage single-digit wins in 2009.
People forget it because Felix has already pitched three full seasons, but he only turns 23 years old this year. Even if this isn’t the year he puts everything together, it looks like he could be close to a $20 player.
A.J. Burnett (2008: $9; 2009: $19)
One of my favorite LIMA-related quotes, courtesy of Trace Wood in 2002:
LIMA misses emerging stars like AJ Burnett, Matt Clement, Ramon Ortiz – hardthrowers who could dominate the game for much of the next decade – because it focuses on walk rates.
In hindsight, I find that to be pretty funny. Burnett ended up increasing his K/BB to become a consistent LIMA target and a quality major league pitcher. Clement and Ortiz didn’t quite manage the dominant careers that Trace predicted, although admittedly the issue wasn’t their walk rates: Clement couldn’t stay healthy, and Ortiz couldn’t strike enough people out while allowing way too many homeruns. But I digress.
Like fellow former-Marlin Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett managed an ERA north of 4.00 in 2008, despite both of them striking out around one batter per inning. Although Burnett has never managed a spectacular ERA, his value goes up quite a bit even if he can only get the 3.82 that is projected.
People like to bring up the Pitching for the Yankees = More Wins theory, but Burnett managed 18 wins last year for a decent Toronto team. I wouldn’t bump up his value any by expecting that number to increase in 2009.
Joba Chamberlain (2008: $8; 2009: $17)
Joba is a little different from the rest of the pitchers in this group. Everyone else experienced a down 2008 after putting up better numbers in previous years. Chamberlain’s only weakness in 2008 was his limited IP, as he only accumulating 100 IP between starting and relieving.
Expectations of an increased workload as a fulltime starter send Chamberlain’s value climbing. Just don’t expect the market to discount him: Shandler’s projections make Joba the #1 fantasy pitcher for 2009, and there are plenty of others hyping him as well.
Related posts:
With all due respect to Ron Shandler, there’s no way that Joba is the #1 fantasy pitcher this year. He’s probably going to be on a 150 IP limit, and he’ll certainly not be as effective starting as in relief over the course of the season.
I’d like to comment on your information on Matt Cain.
I’ve read about Matt Cain on another site, Rotoprofessor that did an article on him.
http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=1919
It basically explains how Cain can post good numbers, though it’s normally only during certain months.
One excerpt from the article says this:
He only posted two months with ERA’s under 4.20 (July at 1.88 and August at 3.66), making his solid ERA slightly deceiving. The same could be said for his 2007 number, as he traded good months and bad. Unfortunately, the bad was really bad, including ERA’s of 5.25 (May) and 6.58 (July).
So basically, it’s always possible that he could improve as he’s still a young pitcher, but he still may be of some risk to sort of depend on.
Like Rotoprofessor, I don’t expect his Wins to really climb all that much compared to last season.