SubscribeLast week we looked at pitchers who fit the LIMA qualifications but may still carry a high pricetag based on high expectations for 2009. Today, we’ll look at some of the true LIMA pitchers — guys who are borderline draftable who could turn a positive value.
Jonathan Sanchez (2008: -$6; 2009: $3)
Sanchez’s 5.01 ERA in 2008 masked some pretty solid peripheral stats. He struck out 157 in 158 IP for a K/9 of 8.94. That was good for 7th among SP and behind only Harden, Lincecum, Kazmir, Volquez, Burnett, and Billingsley.
The projections indicate that Sanchez could realistically cut the ERA down to a 4.24. That isn’t amazingly useful in a mixed league, but, combined with the strikeouts, it would be worth drafting. Sanchez’s projection is similar to what is projected for Clayton Kershaw, minus all of the hype.
Kevin Millwood (2008: -$14; 2009: -$4)
Like Jonathan Sanchez, Millwood managed an era over 5.00 last year, despite doing a lot of things well. The biggest difference in the two for 2009 is the 20 year gap in age between them.
Even if Millwood sees the same improvements as Sanchez, he’s still below replacement level. I can see taking a flyer in an AL-only league, but it seems like there’s limited upside, here.
Andy Pettitte (2008: -$3; 2009: $2)
Pettitte has put up three straight years of ERAs above 4.00 and WHIPs above 1.40. At his age, there’s no reason to expect any improvement from those marks in 2009. (Although the same thing might have been said about fellow-Yankee Mike Mussina last year, and Mussina managed to end his career on a high note.)
So what does that tell us? Those three are the only pitchers who:
1) Meet the LIMA qualifications
2) Come cheap
3) Are projected to improve by more than a $1.
I’d be willing to take a chance on Jonathan Sanchez, but my enthusiasm for Millwood and Pettitte is limited, despite their projected improvements.
Later this week I’ll examine the last group of LIMA pitchers: Those who are cheap but who are still not projected to do better in 2009 than in 2008.
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