SubscribeA quick LIMA story: In 2006, I was really excited about the possibilities for Doug Davis. After some early career struggles, he had put up two solid seasons. His peripheral stats made him an excellent LIMA target — a pitcher ready to breakout in 2006.
I drafted Doug Davis in most of my leagues that year. I was rewarded with an amazing 4.91 ERA and 1.51 WHIP over 203 IP — not exactly the breakout season I was expecting.
The moral of the story: A pitcher who meets the LIMA qualifications is not guaranteed to succeed.
Matt Garza (2008: $7; 2009: $8)
Adam Wainwright (2008: $10; 2009: $9)
I’ll cover Garza and Wainwright together, since their situations seem similar: The projections temper the expected gains for these two young pitchers with a bit of regression in BABIP, which was pretty low for both of them in 2008. The net result is a projected dollar value pretty close to what they put up last year.
The strikeout rate for either pitcher isn’t really as high as you would like in 5×5, and that’s the main thing holding them back from the middle-tier of pitching.
Randy Wolf (2008: $0; 2009: -$2)
The last time Randy Wolf managed an ERA below 4.00? 2002. Not surprisingly, the projections don’t expect an improvement in 2009.
Gil Meche (2008: $6; 2009: $5)
Gil Meche is similar to Wolf, in that there is plenty of data for the projections to use when predicting performance, and so their 2009 values aren’t too far off from last year’s. Meche is a solid pitcher who could be even better, but it’s hard to forecast a breakout after eight seasons in MLB.
Paul Maholm (2008: $4; 2009: $1)
The strikes against Maholm are the same as Garza and Wainwright: Expect the BABIP to regress in 2009. The strikeout rate is not good enough for 5×5. Then throw in a new factor: Maholm stunk in his other two full seasons in the majors (2006 and 2007).
Jorge de la Rosa (2008: -$4; 2009: -$7)
In 2005-2006, Byung-Hyun Kim put up peripheral stats that were pretty close to LIMA-esque, and yet still managed to give up an extraordinary amount of hits (WHIPs over 1.50). Jorge de la Rosa — another Colorado pitcher — looks to fit that same profile.
Wandy Rodriguez (2008: $6; 2009: $2)
Like Lester and Danks, the projections are harsh on Wandy for pitching poorly before 2008. However, his surprisingly good campaign last year was not a result of getting lucky, but came as a result of solid pitching (increasing strikeouts, decreasing walks). Were those improvements for real?
If you think so, you could push the bidding for Wandy into double-digits. The projections are more skeptical of a pitcher who before 2008 had a career 5.17 ERA in 447 IP.
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