SubscribeSo after five posts discussing LIMA starters in 2009, what did we actually accomplish?
We identified exactly one player — Jonathan Sanchez — who should come cheap in 2009 and whose peripheral stats project a dramatic fantasy improvement over 2008.
We identified several reasons why pitchers with solid peripherals might not be projected to improve in ERA/WHIP this year:
- Their ERA/WHIP have been high for several years. (Meche, Pettitte, Wolf)
- Their ERA/WHIP were much lower in 2008 than in previous years, and could regress. (Lester, Danks, W. Rodriguez, Maholm)
- Their 2008 ERA/WHIP was influenced by a low BABIP, which could regress. (Garza, Wainwright, Maholm)
As I mentioned in the introduction to LIMA, the rise in popularity of 5×5 and the increased awareness of advanced stats have essentially killed off the LIMA plan as a viable strategy. It’s too hard to get pitchers who are both good and cheap.
I think that’s why when people discuss LIMA nowadays, they often make it sound like a “punt SP / spend on hitting” strategy. Not finding any pitchers who are both good and cheap, they settle on guys who are just cheap.
But what if we took the opposite approach? What if we focused on good pitchers, even if they weren’t $1 players? Building a rotation with Joba Chamberlain, Matt Cain, Gil Meche, Jonathan Sanchez, and Wandy Rodriguez won’t be cheap, but it might be possible get each of those players below value. And if I can’t have both, I’m going to pick good over cheap.
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