SubscribeI recently posted on the fantasy reaction to Matt Holliday’s trade from the Colorado Rockies to the Oakland A’s. In general, I’d describe the overall attitude from fantasy players as “Drop him a bit, but don’t go overboard with it.”
On the Price Guide, we have provided several projection systems to choose from. Of these, the CHONE projections are the only ones that try to account for Holliday’s switch from Coors to the Coliseum.
Needless to say, the CHONE projections do not agree with the fantasy community.
It has Matt Holliday ranked about 39th overall, which places him as an early-mid 4th round pick. His peers are guys like Raul Ibanez, Matt Kemp, and Ervin Santana–solid players but certainly not top-tier. In a mixed-league draft with $260, CHONE recommends that you drop out of the bidding at $23. It’s the harshest take on Holliday’s 2009 that I’ve seen.
I’m not saying that I agree or disagree with what this projection is saying. (I do know that the CHONE projections have been fairly accurate in the past.) I think that the risk associated with Holliday may be higher than most people think, though, and this is enough to think twice before taking him in the 1st or 2nd rounds.
Related posts: