SubscribeWith no consensus #1 pick for 2009, there has emerged a top-tier made up of Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, David Wright, Hanley Ramirez, and Jose Reyes. I’ve heard arguments that, of those five, Pujols or Ramirez should be the first pick of the draft.
But why not David Wright? Here’s how he compares to the other four options:
Albert Pujols
There’s no doubt that Pujols is truly an elite player. But last year, Wright bested him in three of the five categories (SB, R, RBI). There is also a small but tangible injury concern regarding Pujols, who missed time in 2007 and recently had offseason surgery on his elbow.
Add in a bit of an advantage for filling 3B instead of 1B, and I’m willing to take Wright over Pujols.
Alex Rodriguez
A-Rod is the top-tier player who comes closest to matching Wright’s five-category potential. However, it’s clear which of the two is still on the upside of his career: Rodriguez will be 33 years old in 2009, and Wright will be 26. A-Rod’s best seasons are probably behind him, but there’s still a chance for Wright to get even better.
A-Rod spent part of last year on the DL with a hamstring injury, and age-related injuries could continue to show up. In this case, I’ll opt for the similar but much younger player.
Hanley Ramirez
Hanley had 67 RBIs last year. Wright had almost double that amount.
Now, considering Ramirez hit 33 HR, that meager RBI total is in many ways not his fault. The real focus of the blame should be his Marlins team: Trading Miguel Cabrera before the 2008 season left Florida with a barren lineup, and that showed up in Ramirez’s R and RBI totals.
Wright, on the other hand, has thrived hitting in the middle of the Mets lineup. His combined total of R and RBI (239) topped all of the other top-tier choices in 2008. He figures to continue to have opportunities in 2009 with Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, and Carlos Delgado around him in the order. It doesn’t appear that the RBI situation will improve in 2009 for Ramirez.
Jose Reyes
As a leadoff hitter, Reyes also has a problem driving in runners, and his 68 RBI in 2008 are not what you need from an early first round selection. I’d cut him some slack if he were stealing 78 bases every year (like he did in 2007), but he fell quite a bit short of that in 2008.
Reyes’s batting average has fluctuated from year-to-year, whereas Wright has logged a .300+ average every full year he’s been in the majors. The SB make it hard to make an apples-to-apples comparison, but I give the edge to Wright and his across-the-board performance.
So what am I missing? Is there a reason Wright isn’t getting more support for being the first pick?
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While I’d still have a hard time passing up Hanley, I agree that Wright doesn’t get enough consideration for #1. He’s probably the safest of the above players.
One thing you didn’t mention, though, is that Wright will be playing in a new stadium next year. And the early analysis seems to think that it’s going to be quite a pitcher’s park, even compared to Shea
http://www.amazinavenue.com/2009/1/7/711009/citi-field-where-homeruns
I’m a little worried, considering Wright is the best player on my dynasty team…
@Nick: That’s a very good point with regard to Wright, although we’ll have to see some actual baseball played in the park to know for sure.
My main contention is that it seems people are all blindly picking Hanley with the first pick, when there are some other good options available. This is a year where it’s nice to have the 4th pick.