SubscribeGood stuff from Grey at Razzball.com on pairing your first round pick with a complementary second rounder:
Hanley Ramirez – Again, you want just about anyone but Tulo, Reyes or Rollins. Ideally, you want a big bat. I.e., not Carl Crawford. Someone that is going to get you 30+ homers. Howard and Fielder will be gone, but A-Gon, Morneau, Zimmerman or even Votto should be there. I’d consider J-Upside, but if I went that way I would definitely want another 30+ hitter sooner vs. later.
I really like the idea of thinking ahead for future picks, especially since so much energy is spent just thinking about the fantasy first round. I don’t think this is even inconsistent with the “take the best available” strategy. With a pairing strategy, you’re not locking yourself in on a certain player for the second round — you have to be flexible at the draft — but you are considering the kind of player you want. It’s hardly a reach to take Adrian Gonzalez over Carl Crawford with your second round pick.
Of course, it’s not strictly necessary to balance power-speed with your first picks. If you start off with Hanley and Crawford, you can fill in some power hitters in later rounds (say a Jason Kubel or Billy Butler). If you wind up with two power hitters early (maybe Prince Fielder and Adrian Gonzalez), you can always mix in some SB-threats later on. Your first two picks won’t put you so far ahead in any category that won’t need any other help in that stat.
But looking for a power-speed-pitching balance early does give you much greater flexibility later on. If I have some of each, I don’t have to reach for Michael Bourn a few rounds early to make sure I get stolen bases. I draft Bourn when he makes sense, and I never have to do anything desperate. Having both power and speed early in the draft gives you the freedom to just draft the best players later.
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Makes sense to me too. What I’d really like to know though is what’s up with the 2010 Composite (Adj) data on the Price Guide. Did I miss a post somewhere?
The last two years in our league, we’ve known our draft position a few days before the draft and I’ve used this knowledge to script options for my first 4 or 5 rounds (We play simultaneous AL and NL-only roto leagues). I find this to be a big help when the draft starts to unfold… I’ve played out the scenarios to 4 or 5 rounds and don’t have to scramble in my 90 second window to decide who next after a guy I was hoping to get in round 2 goes off the board right before me. I try to be realistic when doing this – looking at ADPs and not just hoping a guy will fall 5 spots to me. It really helps me not reach for players when I know that 1 or 2 rounds later I can get similar production and should instead draft a positionally or statistically scarce player.
T
@Mike: You haven’t missed anything; the post will be tomorrow.
I’m currently playing around with adjusting the projections by playing time. The “2010 Composite (Adj.)” projections are an early attempt at that.
At a quick, first glance it seems to have suppressed the dollar value of alot of the ‘top end’ players by $10+.
The dollar value ‘band’ is also alot tighter (now $27 is the top hitter in my league vs. $43 previously) then it was before.
Other than the ‘top end’ players though the values do seem to be slightly more accurate in my opinion.
Again, this is just based off a quick 5 minute glance.