SubscribeYou may have noticed that it’s been quiet around here… I have had some real-life issues going on this summer that have kept me from the site.
First off, I apologize to those who have sent me emails over the past couple of months, most of which have gone unanswered. I’m afraid at this point I can’t go digging back through to reply to them all. So, if you still have a question or a problem to report, please email me again. I will be trying to reply to everything sent from this point forward.
Secondly, I hope to write a few posts this week accessing how well the projections did in 2010. I have a feeling the preseason dollar values did very well this year. I’m planning on highlighting some of the successes and see if there’s anything to be learned from the failures.
Related posts:
Great to have you back!
Glad to have you back Mays, and I hope all with you. Your site has become an invaluable tool for me.
and here are some comments based on my experience using your guide the last 2 years:
1. Community Playing Time projections from Tango seemed to be very useful. End of day, most projections aren’t that different from one another, but playing time does seem to differ and even small looking differences produce big swings in expected value. It’s just a shame these are produced so close to opening day.
2. Composite projections were super useful for anyone I was spending meaningful money on. Hanley could probably be considered a “miss” this year, but hey if this is his downside, ok. Much better than Matt Kemp’s downside, who some projection systems LOVED but others didn’t. By using composite projections I think you are playing it much safer with your top picks, which is critical.
3. Use individual projections systems for late round fliers. if one system loves a guy even if 3 others don’t, spend a $1 on him. a composite projection, I think, will struggle to find these diamonds in the rough, but an Oliver or CHONE may be doing something just unique enough to hit one out of the park. Averaging can sometimes be good, sometimes bad
All in all, a great year for The Price Guide I think
@Ken: Great comments. I especially agree that the community playing time projections are essential for a good fantasy draft. If only they came out a little bit earlier… :-)
Mays,
RotoAuthority did a post a while back on undrafted players, which inspired me to find the undrafted players with the highest dollar value at each position in my own league–a full roster in a standard 12 team league.
By my calculations, this team would be strong enough to win my league this year. The first number is the projection and the second is the value to date.
C – Chris Snyder (-4/1)
C – Ramon Hernandez (7/7)
1B – Aubrey Huff (-4/24)
2B – Kelly Johnson (16/12)
SS – Cliff Pennington (0/5)
3B – Scott Rolen (-1/14)
MI – Omar Infante (-17/7)
CI – Jose Bautista (-4/32)
OF – Colby Rasmus (7/13)
OF – Chris B. Young (1/25)
OF – Angel Pagan (-16/21)
OF – Delmon Young (-9/21)
OF – Marlon Byrd (5/13)
DH – Andres Torres (-20/20)
P – Trevor Cahill (-11/24)
P – Carl Pavano (-3/11)
P – Bret Myers (-2/10)
P – C.J. Wilson (-3/9)
P – Shaun Marcum (7/10)
P – R.A. Dickey (na/5)
P – Ricky Romero (-11/6)
P – Jaime Garcia (na/14
P – Gio Gonzalez (-10/9)
I’m sure these undrafted players vary by league, but this is a good representative group of players undervalued going into the season. It would be interesting to compare the values of undrafted players to see if there are any “types” that we can use as prototypes for next season.
I see two distinct types of players on that list:
1. Guys that the Price Guide projections had high that most people didn’t. So Kelly Johnson, Marlon Byrd, etc.
2. Guys that no one thought would do well. Jose Bautista, Andres Torres, etc.
I think Group 1 are easier to spot in the preseason. They had had success in the past (or in the minors), but had also had disappointing or injury-filled seasons. Even so, the projections were optimistic about them returning to form.
Of course, the projections missed Delmon Young’s breakout despite minor league success, and Chris Young’s resurgence.
In some ways, I think it’s futile to try to predict the Group 2 players, the truly unexpected breakouts. It might be interesting to look at more, though.
Yeah, looking forward to any new articles/features.