SubscribeI have mentioned that I think Standings Gain Points (SGPs) are a pretty good method of determining player values for fantasy. However, I don’t use them for the Price Guide based on some shortcomings I have found. This week I’m pointing out some of the quibbles that I have with the SGP methodology:
There’s a standard disclaimer in financial investments that “past results do not guarantee future returns.” Just because a stock has done well in the past, it doesn’t mean that it will continue to do well. It’s a principle that applies to baseball as well: A good hitter who is 0/10 against a pitcher might go four-for-four the next time they meet. And I think a big problem with SGP is expecting the next year to be just like the past one.
Since SGPs are based on the standings from previous years, they will be affected by past strategies. If two owners decided to punt saves last year, SGP will factor their save totals into this year’s denominators. If a few teams ran away with stolen bases, that will be included in the prices as well.
But remember, past results do not guarantee future returns. What happens if no one punts saves this year? What happens if stolen bases end up being a tight race, with no one pulling away with a huge lead?
Fantasy owners are dynamic: They are trying out new strategies from year to year. They are zigging if they saw people zag last year. You can’t rely on the same strategies being used from year to year, but that is exactly the assumption that SGP makes.
In his book, Art McGee does make some efforts to account for this problem. He suggests throwing out the top and bottom teams when building your SGP denominators, because these are more likely to be outliers. He recommends using multiple years of data if you have it.
Definitely, the more data you have to work with, the better your SGPs will be. But when I developed the Price Guide, I wanted a method that didn’t require years of historical, league-specific data to be effective.
And speaking of league-specifics, that’s actually my next quibble with the SGP method.
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